http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1536
We've talked about this subject before, but reading the above and
comments, some further questions came to mind,
1. What do we know about aerosol trends? Is it really true that there
is a 35% uncertainty even for emissions in 2000 compared to 1990?
2. If aerosols may have a forcing of similar magnitude as CO2 at the
moment, and may move up or down by 35% within a decade (and we don't
really know whether they have or have not, let alone what they'll do
between now and 2015), how can we be at all certain of short term
temperature trends?
3. Specifically, a commenter at Climate Audit wonders whether Hansen
really has been spectacularly right with his prediction, or whether it
might just be that aerosol forcing went down unexpectedly and it was
therefore just happy coincidence that Hansen was as close to the mark
as he was?
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