Betting is still open at
http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2007/09/betting_on_sea_ice.php if you're
interested
-W.
On 28/10/2007, John McCormick <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
>
> One of the references in the Arctic sea ice report card was "
>
> The Thinning of Arctic Sea Ice, 1988-2003: Have We Passed a Tipping
> Point?
> R. W. LINDSAY AND J. ZHANG
>
> A portion of the abstract reads:
>
> Internal thermodynamic changes related to the positive ice-albedo
> feedback, not external forcing, dominate
> the thinning processes over the last 16 yr. This feedback continues to
> drive the thinning after the
> climate indexes return to near-normal conditions in the late 1990s.
> The late 1980s and early 1990s could be
> considered a tipping point during which the ice-ocean system began to
> enter a new era of thinning ice and
> increasing summer open water because of positive feedbacks. It remains
> to be seen if this era will persist or
> if a sustained cooling period can reverse the processes.
>
> It is important to note the manuscript was received 2 December 2004.
>
> Since then, melt back has created a field of new ice and refreeze has
> begun much later and at a much slower pace than the authors might have
> imagined in 2004.
>
> As their study said:
>
> "Internal thermodynamic changes related to the positive ice-albedo
> feedback, not external forcing, dominate the thinning processes over
> the last 16 yr."
>
> How could that internal dynamic mechanism be reversed with that
> massive expanse of 'warm' Arctic Ocean slow to give up its heat? The
> next melt season will begin with a great deal more new ice made
> thinner because of the short refreeze time.
>
> The tipping point has been passed. The total refreeze area might not
> equal that of 2006. If it does, the average thickness will undoubtedly
> be much thinner than 2006 (shorter refreeze period).
>
> To borrow a line from Sonny Bono.............the heat goes on.
>
>
> >
>
--
William M. Connolley | www.wmconnolley.org.uk | 07985 935400
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