> On reflection I could give a slightly less glib response...we have found
> that there is noticeable nonlinearity in at least some of our model
> runs, but in the context of the overall uncertainty in sensitivity that
> people often bandy about, the odd 20% here or there (say) is relatively
> unimportant. Same goes for the sensitivity to different forcings.
Thanks, I think that clarifies it quite neatly for me. Let me just
restate it to see whether I got it right. The model runs give some non-
linearity to different types of forcings or forcing level, but it's
small, and on the whole clouds/water vapour should behave fairly
"smoothly" according to the models, and we have no evidence that would
indicate it's been large in the past. On the other hand, the
atmosphere being a chaotic system, it cannot be entirely excluded that
it might be significant (ie that 6 W/m2 will give 10C rather than 5C)?
Or can it? If so, on what basis?
It's not gonna be historical precedent (we know too little about the
forcings/temperatures going back to the last time temperature varied
that much from present), unless we talk a small change (then we can
look at volcanoes etc...).
So, are you basically working climate sensitivity out as follows:
1. Assume linearity based on many model runs showing little deviation
2. Add together information from models and climatological history
(volcanoes, ice ages) to then give a probability distribution for the
climate sensitivity
--~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated
venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of
global environmental change.
Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the
submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not
gratuitously rude.
To post to this group, send email to [email protected]
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
For more options, visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
-~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
