But are we even talking about the same thresholds relative to the
forcings? One thing I've been wondering about since seeing the recent
Rohling et al paper (discussing SLR rates at the end of the Eemian melt) is
the differing character of present vs. Eemian forcing. Eemian Co2 levels
were only ~300 ppm, but increased high-lat insolation changes resulted in ~5
meters additional SLR. This *seems* like it should imply important
differences in the melting. Among other things, would the warming currents
from lower latitudes that appear to be a critical factor at both poles in
the present warming have been as significant in the Eemian? What about the
differing seasonality of forcing from CO2 vs. insolation? I'm sure it's a
longer list, but that's a start. I'm also sure that somebody must have
looked at this, but a few minutes googling turns up nothing.
-- Steve Bloom
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
On Behalf Of Michael Tobis
Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 7:13 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [Global Change: 2498] Re: Sea Level Rise Mapper
It's my impression that we are very close to uncorking the WAIS already in
the Amundsen embayment, and that a sustained 380 ppmv would suffice. I
indeed went as far as "little doubt" on the strength of the likelihood that
we are very unlikely to see 380 as the peak.
The exact threshholds are probably not knowable in advance, but it is worth
noting that these did fail entirely in the previous interglacial, so we
presumably started off quite close to that point.
mt
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