In a speech on Thursday Al Gore asked the US to spend three trillion dollars to
end electricity generation from carbon-based fuels in ten years
(http://www.wecansolveit.org/). Likening his proposal to the 1960's moon shot,
he said "the goal is achievable", but is it true?
In 2006 the US had 842 GWe of fossil-fueled generating capacity (335 from coal;
443 natural gas; 64 from oil). With three trillion dollars to work with, the
replacement cost for 842 GW fossil-fueld capacity would be about $3500 per
kilowatt. Some current capital cost estimates per kilowatt of new capacity:
Wind $2500
Biomass $2500
Geothermal $3000
Hydro $3000
Nuclear $6000
Solar PV $7000
These resources are not entirely unlimited. Geothermal potential has been
estimated at 6 GW, and if wind and biomass can replace 20% and 10% of fossil
capacity respectively, we could reasonably expect to replace 259 GW at an
average cost slightly over $2500 per kw.
The web site says conservation and efficiency can reduce electricity
consumption by one third. Taking that at face value and assuming it can be
done at no net cost, we're left needing to replace 297 GW at an average cost of
about $7900. At that price, hydro, nuclear, and solar pv are all viable
options, but they are not unlimited resources either.
With ten applications for new plants now on file at the NRC, it is conceivable
that a new nuclear plant could be built by 2020, and there is some room for
uprating at existing plants. Exelon suggests a possible 1 GW of uprates and 2
GW of new plant might be added.
All that would leave 294 GW for hydro and solar PV. There are crrently 97 GW
of hydro power capacity in the US, and not much room for more, although there
are plans to import large quantities from Canada. Maybe 14 GW of new hydro,
leaving 280 GW for solar PV.
"A Million Solar Roofs" can produce about 3 GW when the sun is shining, in
California. Bill Clinton asked for "A Million Solar Roofs" in June, 1997. In
July, 2008, Al Gore is effectively asking for a hundred million solar roofs.
He might as well be asking for the moon.
I hope carbon capture and storage is feasible and affordable, because we appear
to be fossil fuel dependent for the foreseeable future.
-dl
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