On Feb 4, 7:26 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
wrote:
> It's interesting, because an anomaly could be driven by a
> redistribution of heat without any change in radiative forcing. Well,
> ok, with so much heat capacity in the deep ocean over a 20 year time
> scale, the world surface temperature could be cooled by 0.5C through
> more heat being sunk into the deep ocean, also without any change in
> radiative forcing.
>
> I am not sure, whether something useful could be made out of this, but
> I've been wondering for a while about what's driving natural 30, 10,
> 5, 1 year up and down cycles, and in how far it's possible to back out
> "weather" from "climate", or
>
> noise coming from redistribution of heat from changes in GHG forcing.
>
> If "weather" was mostly about redistribution of heat (maybe it's more
> driven by eg cloud albedo?), then it should be possible to get a much
> smoother (and meaningful?) heating up line? This could then maybe also
> be directly expressed in W/m2 (measured heat up take) and compared
> with estimated forcing (also in W/m2)?
>
But heat context is proportional to T, not T^4 (ignoring other factors
like humidity). So redistribution of heat will not affect the simple
average, but may change this 4th power calculation, which appears to
be the precise opposite of what you are hoping to achieve.
> Might it be that monthly world temperature averages would be less
> noisy using fourth powers?
Well it is trivial enough to test - you can easily download data from
CRU and GISS.
> Considering what else has been tried to smoothe data, fill in missing
> data, correct for time of observation, urban heat islands etc..., it
> seems useful to me to try what the effect of this averaging procedure
> would be.
No-one is stopping you...
James
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