One idea is to measure heat up take by the oceans, which will give a
figure in W/m2 for the radiation imbalance; but why can we not measure
it directly, ie compare the incoming and outgoing radiation in W/m2?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing

And what's the tropopause got to do with it? The heat capacity of the
air is essentially zero for periods longer than a few weeks, so if
there's imbalance in W/m2 it's got to a) go into the ocean and b)
it'll be the same right across the atmosphere, or not?

A few weeks ago I asked about averaging according to 4th powers, but
thinking it through again, as long as the albedo of the Earth stays
the same and solar insolation stays the same, the average temperature
of the Earth determining the outgoing radiation stays the same; what
changes is that the temperature gradient between where the incoming
radiation is absorbed and where it is re-emitted to space goes up.

The point being, why should the transport between those two points go
according to 4th powers? Eg, some of the transport should be in the
form of convection or water evaporating at the surface of the oceans
and condensing higher up in the atmosphere. And convection (hot air
rising in the tropics say and falling over the arctic), while
temperature dependent in some fashion, is not a straight 4th power
function of surface temperature.

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