'Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.' Neils
Bohr
I meant to include this on the Younger Dryas event. The Day After
Tomorrow Scenario - 20 degrees cooler within months?
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091130112421.htm
Correlation of carbon dioxide to temp is irrelevant and wrong. A
detailed understanding of the whole of a complex and dynamic system
(in the terms of dynamical systems theory) is required to meaningfully
theorise. There is no such thing as simple cause and effect in
climate - although this is possibly an idea a little too far for many
people.
There is a discussion at the NAP (linked to above) but together by
dozens of specialists in a US National Academy of Science panel - this
is very easy to read online with buttons for skimming etc. A fantastic
ebook layout.
On Jan 17, 9:11 am, Robbo <[email protected]> wrote:
> ‘Sudden stepwise instability is also a disturbing scenario to be borne
> in mind when considering the effects that humans might have on the
> climate system through adding greenhouse gases. Judging by what we see
> from the past, conditions might gradually be building up to a ‘break
> point’ at which a dramatic change in the climate system will occur
> over just a decade or two, as a result of a seemingly innocuous
> trigger.’
>
> http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080528/the-climate-change-record-evi...
>
> There are links in this article to a couple of discussions at the
> Quaternary Environments Network.
>
> The Quaternary is characterised by sudden shifts to distinctly cooler
> temperatures at 80 to 120 ky intervals. It may be a temperature limit
> resulting in changes to the global heat engine and to resultant
> changes in ocean circulation or clouds that trigger ice growth.
>
> See also -http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=10136#toc
>
> Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council.
> (2002).Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.:
> National Academy Press. ISBN 9780309074346.
>
> Cooler seems more likely than warmer to me in the context of
> Quaternary climate dynamics. Are we at the temperature limit for the
> current interglacial?
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