On Feb 9, 10:53 pm, Robert Indigo Ellison <[email protected]> wrote: > >look at how we can describe and analyze > > systems in order to recognize and predict when they'll become > > chaotic...." > > One way of looking at trying to predict phase shifts is with > autocorrelation. > > I think perhaps the systems are always chaotic but the tipping point > is known as bifurcation.
I don't think so. The first bifurcation happens when the system enters chaos. "Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift. Such slowing down, measured as increased autocorrelation, can be mathematically shown to be a hallmark of tipping points. Therefore, our results imply independent empirical evidence for the idea that past abrupt shifts were associated with the passing of critical thresholds. Because the mechanism causing slowing down is fundamentally inherent to tipping points, it follows that our way to detect slowing down might be used as a universal early warning signal for upcoming catastrophic change > http://www.pnas.org/content/105/38/14308.full We have now entered a period when the temperature rise has slowed down. That is what they say happens as we are about to pass a tipping point :-! Cheers, Alastair. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
