I think chaos theory is unfortunately named - it is not chaotic as in the dictionary definition of chaos. People have more recently been recasting chaos theory as the theory of complex and dynamic systems. No complex dynamical system is unpredictable in theory - but is completely deterministic if we knew enough about the system. As I said - it is one change influencing an aspect of the system, which influences another etc. The end result is abrupt and nonlinear change as a result of the initial changes - sensitive dependence to initial conditions.
The definition of abrupt climate change is given in a 2002 US National Academy of Science report - Abrupt climate change: Inevitable Surprises. It is a sudden and nonlinear change to a new state that persists for a while. Which might also describe tipping points and chaotic (as in chaos theory) bifurcation. There are a few links to the science of abrupt climate change here. You would do well to try to understand before chiming in with such ill- considered remarks. http://www.earthandocean.robertellison.com.au/ On Apr 21, 4:52 am, Tom Adams <[email protected]> wrote: > On Apr 16, 8:01 pm, Robert I Ellison <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > But are tipping points predictable? > > Some are can be predicted very precisely. Some cannot. > > > Chaos theory is a simply a > > metatheory of change in complex systems and a climate 'tipping point' > > is merely an example of chaotic bifurcation in a complex and dynamical > > system. > > Where did you get that mish-mash of concepts? > > Chaos theory is about systems that are very sensitive to initial > conditions. > > A tipping point is a point where a system goes from one stable state > to > another. The system need not be chaotic. > > Two different concepts. > > Also, any system is unpredictable if you cannot sufficiently specify > the initial conditions. Hence an all unpredictable systems should not > be mashed in with chaotic systems. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, > moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy > dimensions of global environmental change. > > Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the > submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not > gratuitously rude. > > To post to this group, send email to [email protected] > > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected] > > For more options, visit this group > athttp://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
