On Apr 22, 6:30 pm, Robert I Ellison <[email protected]>
wrote:
> It is more involved than simply averaging over more than 30 years.
Works well enough for global averages. As for your regional
interest, I suggest correlating whatever interests you
with PDO, ENSO or whatever and see if the correlations are
not only high but Grainger-causal. Then you'll have something
more than musings.
>
> I think it might be driven by changes in UV in the 22 year Hale cycle
> - feeding into downwelling in the Antarctic vortex - which in turn
> drives changes in cold sea surface currents moving up the Antarctic
> Penisula to South America.
On the face of it, this seems implausible, but there certainly
is a peak in a temperature power spectrum for the North Pacific
at 22 years. Again, attempt some correlations.
> Regardless - the cool Pacific mode is associated with 20 to 40 years
> of a cooling influence on global surface temperatures.
I suspect cahnges in MOC rate; attempt a correlation with AMO.
> A decade of non-warming thus far
> not enough?
Nope. Need at least two decades.
> - you need to at least entertain the possibility of 20 to 40 years of
> cooling.
See my prediction for the 2010s from the link to my
analysis: it'll be hotter.
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