On Sep 19, 11:56 pm, Robert I Ellison <[email protected]>
wrote:
> ...
>
> We barely know what ENSO was doing 400 years ago ...
There is a good proxy for the past 10,000 years.

But I fear you have fallen into the fallacy of
reductionism.  Instead, concentrate on longer
time scales.  A good beginning is W.F.Ruddiman's
"Earth's Climate: Past and Future" with its fine
and simple exposition of relevant time scales;
decadal. centennial and millennial.

Then use some linear system theory to consider
the climate's response to the (approximately)
ramp function of additional forcing over the past
130+ years, a centennial scale.

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