FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 14, 2009 AT 8:30 A.M. EST
Timothy Winters / Aneta Erdie
CB09-06
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail
and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and
holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $343.2
billion, a decrease of 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 9.8
percent (±0.7%) below December 2007. Total sales for the 12 months of 2008
were down 0.1 percent (±0.4%)* from 2007. Total sales for the October
through December 2008 period were down 7.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same
period a year ago. The October to November 2008 percent change was revised
from -1.8 percent (±0.5%) to -2.1 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were down 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from November 2008 and were
10.8 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 35.5
percent (±1.5%) from December 2007 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales
were down 22.4 percent (±2.3%) from last year.
*The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full
retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used
to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are
then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over
three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for
approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of
the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the
Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.*
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales(Estimates adjusted
for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not
for price changes)
*The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for
January is scheduled to be released February 12, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EST.*
*For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <
http://www.census.gov/retail>.* This report is also available the day of
issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
** The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does
not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change
is different than zero.*
------------------------------
*TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY
KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2008*Estimates adjusted for seasonal
variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price
changes.
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based
on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail
Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2)
(In Millions of dollars)
2008 2008 2008 2007 2007
NAICS(1) Kind of Business
Dec(3) Nov Oct Dec Nov
Code
(a) (p) (r) (r) (r)
Retail & food services, total....................
343,242 352,627 360,296 380,592 384,163
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............
284,232 293,200 300,673 304,577 306,483
Retail .......................................
305,397 313,925 321,965 342,552 346,809
GAFO(4)..........................................
(*) 95,709 95,170 97,951 98,487
441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................
59,010 59,427 59,623 76,015 77,680
4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................
52,475 52,825 53,106 69,638 71,297
442 Furniture & home furnishings stores..............
8,431 8,586 8,658 9,715 9,797
443 Electronics & appliance stores....................
8,982 9,073 8,935 9,378 9,718
44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera...........................
(*) 7,248 7,122 7,520 7,834
44312 Computer & software stores......................
(*) 1,825 1,813 1,858 1,884
444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers
25,056 25,816 26,571 27,517 28,316
4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................
(*) 21,605 22,407 23,913 24,224
445 Food & beverage stores...........................
48,694 49,369 49,422 48,089 47,813
4451 Grocery stores..................................
43,479 44,071 44,106 43,011 42,773
4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores......................
(*) 3,606 3,611 3,378 3,333
446 Health & personal care stores....................
20,924 20,839 20,741 19,890 19,969
44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................
(*) 17,206 17,149 16,575 16,578
447 Gasoline stations................................
26,243 31,187 38,163 40,677 41,830
448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........
17,351 17,793 17,776 18,687 19,125
44811 Men's clothing stores...........................
(*) (S) (S) (S) (S)
44812 Women's clothing stores.........................
(*) 3,123 3,103 3,380 3,409
4482 Shoe stores.....................................
(*) 2,156 2,142 2,236 2,238
451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......
7,220 7,252 7,104 7,330 7,440
452 General merchandise stores.......................
49,058 49,725 49,323 49,250 48,707
4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................
16,081 16,465 16,189 17,336 17,367
4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)...............
(*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
4529 Other general merchandise stores................
(*) 33,260 33,134 31,914 31,340
45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................
(*) 29,629 29,460 28,267 27,680
45299 All other gen. merchandise stores..............
(*) 3,631 3,674 3,647 3,660
453 Miscellaneous store retailers....................
9,666 9,616 9,905 9,847 9,922
454 Nonstore retailers...............................
24,762 25,242 25,744 26,157 26,492
4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........
(*) 17,761 17,871 17,908 18,373
722 Food services & drinking places..................
37,845 38,702 38,331 38,040 37,354
(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind
of business.
(NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate
(p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table,
see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html
(2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and
for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes.
Concurrent seasonal adjustment
uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12
ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in
calculating all seasonally
adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally
adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and
explanatory material can be found
on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
(3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a
small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade
Survey (MRTS) sample.
All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.
(4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types
of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442),
electronics & appliances (443),
clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby,
book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply,
stationery, and gift stores (4532).
(5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within
department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader
kind-of-business totals.
*TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY
KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2008*Estimates not adjusted for seasonal
variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
(In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change)
12 month total
% Chg. 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007
NAICS(1) Kind of Business
2008 from Dec(2) Nov Oct Dec Nov
Code
2007 (a) (p) (r)
Retail & food services, total....................
4,478,360 -0.1 396,150 343,733 357,686 429,953 381,344
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............
3,668,624 3.0 340,045 293,597 300,652 360,089 313,157
Retail .......................................
4,019,557 -0.5 358,305 306,811 318,895 391,457 345,596
GAFO(3)..........................................
(*) (*) (*) 104,037 91,213 146,167 108,704
441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................
809,736 -11.9 56,105 50,136 57,034 69,864 68,187
4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................
731,885 -13.2 49,851 43,950 50,132 63,997 61,957
44111 New car dealers................................
(*) (*) (*) 34,694 39,391 53,038 50,912
4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores..................
(*) (*) (*) 6,186 6,902 5,867 6,230
442 Furniture & home furnishings stores..............
109,180 -8.0 9,839 9,144 8,675 11,172 10,737
4421 Furniture stores................................
(*) (*) (*) 4,642 4,503 5,329 5,416
4422 Home furnishings stores.........................
(*) (*) (*) 4,502 4,172 5,843 5,321
443 Electronics & appliance stores....................
111,512 0.1 14,803 10,247 7,949 15,292 11,095
44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera...........................
(*) (*) (*) 8,234 6,267 12,430 8,993
44312 Computer & software stores......................
(*) (*) (*) 2,013 1,682 2,862 2,102
444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers
325,181 -3.6 22,147 23,417 27,865 23,429 27,226
4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................
(*) (*) (*) 20,006 24,088 20,780 23,764
445 Food & beverage stores...........................
589,512 5.1 52,819 49,259 49,540 52,470 48,040
4451 Grocery stores..................................
527,395 5.3 45,653 43,939 44,238 45,463 42,859
4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores......................
(*) (*) (*) 3,631 3,597 4,611 3,450
446 Health & personal care stores....................
247,022 4.0 23,498 19,880 20,865 21,839 19,610
44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................
(*) (*) (*) 16,449 17,441 17,951 16,296
447 Gasoline stations................................
489,252 9.9 24,878 28,661 39,155 38,358 39,111
448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........
220,795 -1.7 28,296 19,184 17,165 31,235 20,888
44811 Men's clothing stores...........................
(*) (*) (*) 868 807 1,491 969
44812 Women's clothing stores.........................
(*) (*) (*) 3,307 3,091 4,904 3,665
44814 Family clothing stores..........................
(*) (*) (*) 7,975 6,757 11,283 8,385
4482 Shoe stores.....................................
(*) (*) (*) 2,150 2,050 2,936 2,242
451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......
88,327 1.1 12,159 7,484 6,223 12,072 7,961
452 General merchandise stores.......................
595,536 3.3 69,593 54,745 47,675 71,346 54,156
4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................
200,437 -4.5 27,380 19,622 15,539 29,700 20,965
4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)...............
(*) (*) (*) 20,181 15,971 30,490 21,538
4529 Other general merchandise stores................
(*) (*) (*) 35,123 32,136 41,646 33,191
45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................
(*) (*) (*) 31,140 28,458 36,266 29,092
45299 All other gen. merchandise stores..............
(*) (*) (*) 3,983 3,678 5,380 4,099
453 Miscellaneous store retailers....................
119,120 0.2 11,812 9,197 10,143 11,687 9,989
454 Nonstore retailers...............................
314,384 3.6 32,356 25,457 26,606 32,693 28,596
4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........
(*) (*) (*) 17,956 18,425 23,030 19,898
722 Food services & drinking places..................
458,803 3.7 37,845 36,922 38,791 38,496 35,748
(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind
of business.
(NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p)
Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table,
see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html
(2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a
small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade
Survey (MRTS) sample.
All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.
(3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types
of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442),
electronics & appliances (443),
clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby,
book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply,
stationery, and gift stores (4532).
(4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within
department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader
kind-of-business totals.
*TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY
KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2008*Estimates adjusted for seasonal
variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price
changes
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the
Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)
Dec Nov
2008 2008
adv. prel.
from-- from--
NAICS Kind of Business
Nov Dec Oct Nov
Code
2008 2007 2008 2007
(p) (r) (r) (r)
Retail & food Services, total....................
-2.7 -9.8 -2.1 -8.2
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts )..........
-3.1 -6.7 -2.5 -4.3
Retail ..................................
-2.7 -10.8 -2.5 -9.5
441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................
-0.7 -22.4 -0.3 -23.5
4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers...............
-0.7 -24.6 -0.5 -25.9
442 Furniture & home furnishings stores..............
-1.8 -13.2 -0.8 -12.4
443 Electronics & appliance stores...................
-1.0 -4.2 +1.5 -6.6
444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers
-2.9 -8.9 -2.8 -8.8
445 Food & beverage stores...........................
-1.4 +1.3 -0.1 +3.3
4451 Grocery stores..................................
-1.3 +1.1 -0.1 +3.0
446 Health & personal care stores....................
+0.4 +5.2 +0.5 +4.4
447 Gasoline stations................................
-15.9 -35.5 -18.3 -25.4
448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........
-2.5 -7.1 +0.1 -7.0
451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........
-0.4 -1.5 +2.1 -2.5
452 General merchandise stores.......................
-1.3 -0.4 +0.8 +2.1
4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................
-2.3 -7.2 +1.7 -5.2
453 Miscellaneous stores retailers...................
+0.5 -1.8 -2.9 -3.1
454 Nonstore retailers...............................
-1.9 -5.3 -1.9 -4.7
722 Food services & drinking places..................
-2.2 -0.5 +1.0 +3.6
(p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted
estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.
*TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY
KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2008*Data not adjusted for seasonal
variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the
Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)
Dec Nov
2008 2008
adv. prel.
from-- from--
NAICS Kind of Business
Nov Dec Oct Nov
Code
2008 2007 2008 2007
(p) (r) (r) (r)
Retail & food Services, total....................
+15.2 -7.9 -3.9 -9.9
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts )..........
+15.8 -5.6 -2.3 -6.2
Retail ..................................
+16.8 -8.5 -3.8 -11.2
441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................
+11.9 -19.7 -12.1 -26.5
4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................
+13.4 -22.1 -12.3 -29.1
442 Furniture & home furnishings stores..............
+7.6 -11.9 +5.4 -14.8
443 Electronics & appliance stores...................
+44.5 -3.2 +28.9 -7.6
444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers
-5.4 -5.5 -16.0 -14.0
445 Food & beverage stores...........................
+7.2 +0.7 -0.6 +2.5
4451 Grocery stores..................................
+3.9 +0.4 -0.7 +2.5
446 Health & personal care stores....................
+18.2 +7.6 -4.7 +1.4
447 Gasoline stations................................
-13.2 -35.1 -26.8 -26.7
448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........
+47.5 -9.4 +11.8 -8.2
451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........
+62.5 +0.7 +20.3 -6.0
452 General merchandise stores.......................
+27.1 -2.5 +14.8 +1.1
4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................
+39.5 -7.8 +26.3 -6.4
453 Miscellaneous stores retailers...................
+28.4 +1.1 -9.3 -7.9
454 Nonstore retailers...............................
+27.1 -1.0 -4.3 -11.0
722 Food services & drinking places..................
+2.5 -1.7 -4.8 +3.3
(p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted
estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
*SOURCE:* Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--DECEMBER
2008 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office,
Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and
measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press
Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to *Mr. Timothy
Winters (301) 763-2713.*
------------------------------
Survey DescriptionThe U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly
Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate
of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms
located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a
probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the
larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account
for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales
estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales
from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported
data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or
adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived
by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous
month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are
summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly
estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on
MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at:
http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
------------------------------
Reliability of EstimatesBecause the estimates presented in this report are
based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error.
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that
would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame
conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a
subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard
errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this
report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling
error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is
90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate
is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the
margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90
percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval
contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to
conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different
from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant.
Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless
otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of
variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value
±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends
that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information
into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn
from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that
contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of
error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the
universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data,
and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although
nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs
quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of
error.
------------------------------
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not
adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences.
Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.
(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the
advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month
change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and
MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for
the most recent 12 months.
Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error,
nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
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