There was lot of action in the FID market yesterday. Massive supply of treasuries swamped the market and yields were low. Rightnow capital (Cash) is scarce. The yields have to move up. Since the yields are looking to move up, fund managers might tend to sell their equities and move to FID in the near term.
Watch the sell off in Tokyo starting today. Cheers Navin NS Capital Partners ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *Treasuries Headed for Full-Blown Bear Market, Citigroup Says * Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Treasuries are moving into a "full- blown" bear market as global stimulus packages increase demand for capital, according to Citigroup Inc. "This may sound a bit ridiculous, but we think we have begun a full-blown bear market in fixed income," wrote Tom Fitzpatrick, Citigroup's New York-based chief technical analyst, and London-based strategist Shyam Devani. "The commodity that is going to be the most in demand as far as the eye can see is capital. As a consequence, the cost of capital can only go one way — up." The 30-year bond's yield may rise to 5 percent by late 2009, the highest level since August 2007, according to Citigroup. The U.S. will probably borrow $2.5 trillion this fiscal year, compared with $892 billion last year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The firms are among the 17 primary dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve. The bond's yield rose 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 3.53 percent today. It fell to 2.509 percent on Dec. 18, the lowest level since sales of the security began in 1977. President Barack Obama's $819 billion stimulus package, passed in the U.S. House yesterday by a 244-188 vote, is equivalent to one-quarter of the entire federal budget. Countries including the U.K., Germany and India are also increasing spending to boost economic growth. "The most striking feeling we have as 2009 begins is that there is this wall of consensus negativity about financial markets," the analysts wrote. "We believe this comes from the need for huge government issuance around the world competing for a scarce resource." Increased government spending will spur concern that inflation will accelerate, prompting the greenback to weaken and gold to rise, the analysts added. -- ______________________ Navin NS Capital Partners --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
