A few showers later, Centre on cloud nine
*11 Jul 2009, 0205 hrs IST, ET Bureau*
<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4764813.cms?prtpage=1>
*The latest IMD estimates states that the cumulative seasonal rainfall
during this year's monsoon has so far been 43 percent below the long-term
average. It was the driest June in 83 years and water in the main reservoirs
has more than halved.Scattered rains over parts of the central Indian plains
and northwest regions in the past two days have led the Centre to describe
the **[image: Rain] <javascript:openslideshow('/slideshow/4764818.cms')>**
<javascript:openslideshow('/slideshow/4764818.cms')>*
* monsoon situation as “improved”. But it may still be clutching at straws
in the food bowl of Punjab, Haryana and UP as well as parts of Rajasthan and
Bihar.
Kharif (or summer-sown) crop output may not be the only worry. The
government has also begun to worry about rabi (winter-sown) crops, which
depend almost entirely on irrigation, with key reservoir levels plummeting
countrywide. The power and water supply situation are equally worrisome.
In Parliament, food minister Sharad Pawar acknowledged that the summer
monsoon rains have been inadequate in many parts of northern India,
including Punjab, Haryana, UP and Bihar.
“But I feel the situation will improve. As of now, seeds and fertilisers
have been provided to state governments. However, in case sowing fails in
areas where it had been completed, then we will provide additional seeds,”
Mr Pawar told the Rajya Sabha.
Specialised drought-resistant and short-duration seeds are in surplus by 1.5
lakh quintals, according to farm ministry officials, but in several places
where the seeds are ready, there is little water to encourage crop growth
and, in states like Punjab which use diesel power to irrigate crops, lack of
sufficient power is also proving to be a problem.
Economists see the delayed progress of the monsoon this summer hiving off
around 2% from the overall growth expectations. A negative kharif and rabi
output this year could spell bad news on the growth front.
At least 58% of India's net sown area depends on the monsoon. And decline in
water reservoir levels could also hit regions not dependent on monsoon,
inflating prices for staple commodities such as rice and winter pulses (like
chana) and oilseeds (mustard). The mean contribution of rice, the kharif
staple, alone to the total annual food grain production is 43% while wheat,
coarse cereals and pulses contribute 34%, 16% and 6%.
Agriculture contributes about 20-25% of the national income, and a decline
here is expected to pull the overall GDP rate down to 5-6% against 7-8%.
"The situation has improved somewhat over the last several hours in the
central plains and some places even in the northwest. But overall, the
monsoon forecast remains bleak for the region," a senior government official
told ET after Thursday's briefing by met officials and agri scientists with
both farm minister Sharad Pawar and earth sciences minister Prithviraj
Chavan.*
--
regards
ನರೇನ್ ಬಾಳಿಗಾ
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