*Currencies Overview * Currency markets may trade largely sideways this week, continuing the overall pattern of the past few weeks. Investors are relatively balanced in their views toward the major traded currencies at present.
They both like and dislike the economic prospects across the industrialized economies in roughly equal amounts. In light of this, the consensus view is to try to balance one’s portfolio across these markets, and to hedge the entire exposure to the industrialized economies with increased investments in India and other emerging economies. There is a view that the U.S. economy may be somewhat stronger than economic prospects in Europe and Japan, but not so much stronger as to warrant further sharp appreciations of the dollar against these currencies at this time. Meanwhile, reduced investor anxiety over European government fiscal conditions have allowed the euro to recover a bit against the dollar. The euro may not have much further to gain against the U.S. currency, however, due to stronger economic activity in the United States. U.S. fiscal policies are not particularly compelling. The Chinese government statements last week that it would not abandon the dollar and U.S. Treasuries as major assets should help the dollar maintain value against other major traded currencies. *Euro / Dollar * The euro may continue to trade between $1.24 and $1.27 this week. The euro rose to $1.2679 on 8 July, a 6% increase from a month ago when it settled at $1.1939, on 8 June. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) net lending to banks in Europe declined last week as a major 12-month lending facility matured on 2 July. That the ECB felt the facility could lapse was seen as a vote of confidence for European economies, and added to a reduction in investor concerns about Europe. Additionally, positive economic data from Germany released has boosted investor sentiment. German exports rose 9.2% while industrial production increased by 2.6% in May from the previous month. Greece plans to auction $1.58 billion in six-month treasury bills on 13 July, its first attempt to borrow in the international markets since May. With that, the euro will be sensitive to investor sentiment regarding the Greek debt auction in the next few trading sessions. *Indian Rupee / Dollar * The rupee may trade between 212 cents and 215 cents per 100 rupees this week. The rupee traded vertically in the beginning of last week after inflation data reflected a rise to 10.2% in May from the previous month. Shortly thereafter the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the rate by which it lends to commercial banks by 25 basis points to 5.5% on 2 July. The rupee rose on Friday, 9 July following gains in global equity markets. Investor sentiment toward risky assets and, by extension, emerging markets improved last week after the Eurozone exhibited financial strength when a major Eurosystem lending facility closed smoothly. This eased concerns over the global recovery a bit. Foreign fund inflows to India’s domestic markets rose by $1.6 billion as of 9 July from last week. If the rupee breaks above 215 cents, it may extend gains toward 216 cents momentarily. *Sterling Pound / Dollar * The pound may edge slightly higher this week, possibly towards $1.53, before easing off later in the week. The pound consolidated around $1.52 early last week as mixed economic data prevented the pound from moving too forcefully in any one direction. There have been some increased positive views toward the pound in recent weeks, reflecting the new U.K. government’s plans for fiscal reform within the country. While that is an underlying view of the market, market sentiment has turned noncommittal. Weak net export figures then pushed prices slightly lower amid concerns of a subdued economic recovery later in the week. The increasing possibility of weaker growth in the United Kingdom may keep the pound trading below resistance at $1.53. The pound has been trending higher recently, however, and is below historic levels. This juxtaposed against economic concerns may push and pull at the currency to prevent it from breaking out of its current trading range of $1.50 - $1.53. *Japanese Yen / Dollar * The yen may remain volatile this week, possible ranging between 112.5 and 115.0 cents. The yen rallied early last week to almost 115 cents on 5 July, before falling to around 113 cents on Friday. Demand for yen as a safe-haven currency declined as European debt concerns eased and world equity markets rose. There is speculation that the yen could head lower this week if the current ruling party suffers a bad result in Japan’s upper house election on Sunday. The yen also could suffer from signs of moderation in Japan’s economic growth. Japanese industrial production and machinery orders dropped in May. However, the country’s economy could be helped by new lending activities resulting from the Bank of Japan’s scheme to lend up to three trillion yen to commercial banks. Demand for yen from overseas investors, including the Chinese government and Chinese corporations, has helped keep the yen strong, while speculative follow-on buying by banks has added to this trend. -- Regards Hardik Shah -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en.
