*Index Outlook: Sensex backtracks again * **
** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** Sensex (17,868.3) The Sensex had just begun to flap its wings to soar above the 18,200 barrier when it was checked abruptly by the RBI's policy rate hike. Earnings disappointments from some of the top-rung companies made the index retract further to close 263 points lower. Though the index did not collapse last week, yet another failure to breach the above-mentioned barrier does no good to the morale of market participants. Earnings announcements will continue to dictate stock price movement in the week ahead. It however needs to be borne in mind that August ushers in sluggishness in the stock markets, probably because some countries have summer holidays in this month. So a spectacular rally or a crash seems extremely improbable in immediate future. Derivative volumes spiked higher close to expiry while the cash segment recorded moderate volumes. Index put-call ratio moved lower as traders utilised the weakness to close some of their short positions. Open interest for August series opens above Rs 1,20,000 crore; probably the highest ever series-opening in India. The Sensex has not made any headway in the month of July and closed with modest 167-points gain. Since seven months of 2010 have already gone by, it is time to briefly revisit our yearly outlook for Sensex published on January 3 this year. Our prognosis then had been, “Our preferred view is that the index will move a little higher from current levels in the early part of the year before turning choppy or even going into deeper decline. The levels within which the index is expected to move next year are 12,000 and 18,500. The upper limit for the year is 20,772 and the lower limit is 9,800. We will revisit the long-term counts if these limits are breached.” Although the index closed in on the upper end of the preferred range on numerous occasions, it has shown remarkable resilience in holding way above the 12,000 mark; that was our lower boundary. As we have pointed out earlier, the intermediate-term range within which the index is moving over the last nine months has higher troughs and peaks, indicating a bullish undercurrent. That has resulted in moving the lower boundary for the year higher to 15,500. Next support zone for this year is also moved higher to that between 14,300 and 14,850. What is more important is that this pattern suggests that an upward break-out from this range is more likely than a lower one. Although the long-term outlook is beginning to turn positive, we continue to advise caution from a medium-term perspective because of the strong resistance around 18,000. Key medium-term support is 17,400 and breach of this level will imply a possible fall to 16,850 or even below in this period. The short-term trend has also reversed lower since the recent peak at 18,237. The doji star indicated last week proved to be a short-term peak and the index is moving with a negative bias since then. Oscillators in the daily chart corroborate this weak outlook. The 10-day rate of change oscillator has declined in to the negative zone and the 14-day relative strength index positioned at 52, is on the verge of moving in to bearish zone. Outlook for the week ahead is bearish. The index is currently hovering around the short-term support at 17,900, where the 21-day simple moving average is also positioned. The Sensex can however decline below this level to 17,716 or 17,395 in the near-term. Resistances for the week would be at 18,084 and 18,237. The Nifty (5,367.6) too could not overtake the recent peak of 5,477 and declined to the intra-week low of 5,350 instead. The near-term trend in the index is down and immediate supports are at 5,381, 5,321 and 5,225. Since the index is hovering around the first support, short-term traders can wait for a firm move below 5,350 before divesting their long positions. An upward reversal early next week can take the index to 5,480 or 5,505. Traders ought to tread cautiously as long as the Nifty trades below the key medium-term resistance zone between 5,450 and 5,550 indicated last week. Reversal from here can pull the index down to 5,050 or below over the medium-term. Conversely a strong move beyond this zone can take the index to 5,780. Global benchmarks gave up some of the gains in the later part of the week to end on a flat note. The iffy movement in European and American indices maintains a question mark over the reversal of the medium-term downtrend from the April peak. In other words, sharp declines from current levels will mean that the third leg down of the down-move from April highs is in progress. CBOE VIX inched up gradually over the week but it recorded a sharp decline from the intra-week peak of 27.3 on Friday. Traders were perhaps happy to see market's indifference to decelerating GDP growth in the US. The Dow reversed lower from the intra-week peak of 10,585. We maintain that key resistance for this index stays at 10,650. The index needs to close above this level to signal the reversal in the medium-term down-trend. Inability to do so can drag the index down to 10,000 or even below over the ensuing weeks. Asian benchmarks such as Jakarta Composite, KLSE Composite, Sri Lanka All Share Index, Thailand's SET Index bucked the trend and closed the week at new 52-week highs. The Shanghai Composite also built on its gains. — Lokeshwarri S.K http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2010/08/01/stories/2010080150400900.htm -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en.
