*STOCK UPDATE- SHAREKHAN * *IL&FS Transportation Networks ** *Recommendation: Buy Price target: Rs312 Current market price: Rs200
*Price target revised to Rs312* Result highlights - *Revenues above expectation due to faster execution:* In Q3FY2013, the consolidated revenues of IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd (ITNL) grew by a robust 39% year on year (YoY) to Rs1,764 crore (higher than our estimate) led by a strong execution and a consistent toll collection across projects. The construction revenues rose by 37% YoY to Rs1,239 crore. However, the company booked a low fee income during the quarter at Rs94 crore (a decline of 37% YoY). The revenues from the operational build-operate-transfer (BOT) assets grew at a healthy rate of 39% to Rs146 crore led by a consistent traffic in its operational project and also consolidation of Chongqing project (which was acquired in December last year, contributing nearly Rs40 crore to the BOT revenues in the current quarter). - *Revenue mix dents margin sequentially: *However, the operating profit margin (OPM) contracted by 754 basis points quarter on quarter (QoQ) to 25.5%, which was lower than our estimate of 30%. The contraction in the margin was mainly on account a higher contribution of revenues from the low margin construction income vis-a-vis the BOT income. This was further aided by a lower contribution of revenues from the fee income (Rs94 crore as against Rs209 crore during Q2FY2013). Consequently, the EBITDA margin remained almost flat sequentially at Rs450 crore. - *Growth in PAT limited by surge in the interest, depreciation and tax charges:* Though the company reported a robust top line growth, the huge surge in interest charges (up 53% YoY) and depreciation (up 30% YoY) coupled with higher effective tax rate (ETR) took a toll on the profitability of ITNL, which reported a lower than estimated growth in the consolidated net profit by 19% YoY to Rs104 crore. - *Strengthening bid pipeline: *At the end of Q3FY2013, ITNL has witnessed a robust increase in the request for proposal (RFP) stage (post-qualification) and the request for qualification (RFQ) stage (pre-qualification) bid pipeline. The post-qualification order pipeline grew by 2.2x times to Rs14,352 crore while the pre-qualification orders grew by 1.9x to Rs54,568 crore. We believe the sharp rise in bid pipeline promises a better order intake leading to a strong revenue visibility for ITNL. - *Estimates revised:* We have revised our revenue estimates upwards for FY2013 and FY2014 by 9.4% and 4.9% respectively to factor in the better execution in a few projects. However, we have reduced our margin expectations by factoring in the higher project cost in a couple of projects for the same period. Consequently, our net profit stands reduced by 7% and 9% for FY2013 and FY2014 respectively. Further, we have introduced FY2015 estimate with the earnings per share (EPS) estimate of Rs32.1. - *Maintain Buy with a revised price target of Rs312:* Considering the strong order backlog, an expected pick-up in the execution and a healthy new project award pipeline of National Highway Authority of India (NHAI), we remain positive on ITNL’s financial performance going ahead. Moreover, we expect ITNL to be among the key gainers from the easing of competitive pressure in large NHAI projects. On account of an increase in the project costs of a few projects and a reduction in margin, we have revised our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP)-based price target to Rs312 and have maintained our Buy rating on the stock. However, we have not factored valuation of three toll projects under implementation awaiting financial closure. At the current market price, the stock trades at 7.4x and 6.7x its FY2013E and FY2014E earnings respectively. -- CA. Rajesh Desai -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
