*STOCK UPDATE - Sharekhan
*

*Bajaj Auto** **
*Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs2,028
Current market price: Rs1,788

*Strike at Chakan plant to hit production*

*Workers at Chakan plant resort to strike*
The workers at Bajaj Auto's Chakan plant resorted to a strike, thereby
impacting production. The plant employs 925 permanent workers besides 1,000
temporary and contractual workers. The workers are demanding a wage hike of
25% and also permanent employment for the contractual workers. Apart from
this, the workers are also demanding an option that would entitle them to
subscribe to 500 equity shares of the company at a discounted price of Rs1
per share.

*Production to be impacted in near term*
The Chakan plant produces 3,000 units/day and produces the premium range of
motorcycles Pulsar, Avenger, Ninja and KTM brands. The Chakan plant
contributes about 25% of the overall production capacity of the company.

Out of the striking workers about 200 employees reported to work and the
production was recommenced. However, the production would be sub-optimal.
The management estimates the production to dip by 1,000 units/day due to
the strike. It expects the plant to produce 50,000 units/month in June 2013
and July 2013 as against the normal capacity of 75,000 units/per month.
Overall the production impact is likely to be 50,000 units.

*Valuation and view: Maintain Hold but would carefully watch on developments
*
We assess the production loss of 50,000 units due to the strike. The
company, however, has an inventory of four to five weeks, which would
shield from an immediate loss in sales. However, the sales may get impacted
if the strike persists for a longer period. We are keeping our earnings
assumptions unchanged as of now. We maintain Hold recommendation on the
stock with a price target of Rs2,028. However, we would be carefully
watching developments for any deterioration in the situation.




-- 
CA. Rajesh Desai

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