"Paul M. Gherman" <[email protected]> said:

>I think with increased electronic information whether free
>or commercial, the eventual costly infrastructure of
>libraries as we know them today will decrease as will the
>current number of staff working in libraries.

The "Productivity Paradox" suggests otherwise. It was 
probably documented first by William J. Baumol and Sue 
Anne Batey Blackman in an article titled Electronics, 
the cost disease, and the operation of libraries.  
(Journal of the American Society for Information Science. 
1983 34,3:181-191). They found that what they called 
"the cost disease in libraries" was rooted in technology. 
Computerization and the falling prices of computer 
systems were expected to reduce the cost of libraries. 
Yet the decline of prices increased the share of costly 
labor-intensive activities.

Most readers of this article didn't believe it at the
time. The Productivity Paradox then materialized in 
industry and government. Eventually the National Academy 
of Sciences organized a panel to study it (without the
aid of an economist, for reasons that I will never
understand).

Instead of occuring naturally as a matter of operating
economies, reductions in library spending have been 
handed down from above, justified by a vision of 
photocopying efficiencies that never materialized. The 
last ARL study reported that an interlibrary photocopy 
took over two weeks to appear. I consider "two weeks" 
to be "two weeks too late." 

University managers and the science bureaucracy continue 
to disregard the clear recommendations of information 
scientists who have studied the information explosion. With 
the continuing growth of R&D, real resources and library 
research are required to connect researchers to findings. 
Even Paul Ginsparg wrote, "There remains a pressing need 
for organization of intellectual value-added, which by 
definition cannot be automated even in principle, and 
that leaves significant opportunities for any agency 
willing to listen to what researchers want and need." 
(1996 UNESCO paper)

Albert Henderson
Editor, PUBLISHING RESEARCH QUARTERLY 1994-2000
<[email protected]>



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