On 2012-01-03, at 1:01 PM, Les Carr wrote:

>> ...Mendley is not any more successful in providing OA than repositories

That's UNMANDATED repositories, of course.

MANDATED repositories are far more successful than either Mendeley or 
unmandated repositories:

http://openaccess.eprints.org/uploads/greenmand60.png


Stevan 

> Begin forwarded message:
> 
>> From: Les A Carr <lac -- ecs.soton.ac.uk>
>> Date: January 3, 2012 11:24:40 AM EST
>> Subject: Re: Mendeley users
>> 
>> ...I did do a couple of analyses of Mendeley effectiveness for OA about 12 
>> months ago.
>> You can see my writeups here:
>> 
>> http://repositoryman.blogspot.com/2011/06/mendeley-download-vs-upload-growth.html
>> and
>> http://repositoryman.blogspot.com/2011/06/mendeley-measuring-oa-rates.html
>> 
>> ...Mendley is not any more successful in providing OA than repositories
>> are and in fact it is very disappointing in the number of open PDFs that it 
>> has created...
>> 
>> I have detailed spreadsheets and can redo the analyses if they are 
>> interesting/useful.
>> --
>> les
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On 24 Dec 2011, at 04:06, Stevan Harnad wrote:
>> 
>> Arthur,
>> 
>> Thanks for the data about Mendeley. I have a few questions about things I 
>> don't understand;
>> 
>> 1.4 million people have downloaded and installed Mendeley, from 32,000 
>> institutions. This means little, I think, though giving us another estimate 
>> of the number of research institutions. That there are 122,000 groups 
>> totally dwarfs the number of institutional repositories
>> 
>> As far as I can tell, groups are subsets of people who have agreed to share 
>> their reference lists. This is the power set of the number of institutions, 
>> indeed of the number of individuals, so it is bound to be huge, given the 
>> number of k/N subgroupings are combinatorially possible!
>> 
>> and 143 million articles is not to be sneezed at, though there is doubtless 
>> a lot of replicates.
>> 
>> But what are they. Assuming they are indeed full-texts and not just 
>> bibliographic citations (of writings by Aristotle, for example) what we need 
>> to know is what percentage of total papers published in (say) 2010 they 
>> represent. (About 20% is the figure to beat. That's the spontaneous 
>> UNMANDATED self-archiving rate -- including both websites and repositories. 
>> Seventy percent would be the figure to match or beat for MANDATED 
>> self-archiving.
>> 
>> To pursue the analysis a bit further, if the eight ID/OA mandated 
>> institutions have about 1000 academics each on overage, that’s 8,000 
>> authors. The 200 dubious mandates contribute 1000 x 200 x 10% = 20,000 
>> people, making 28,000 people contributing.
>> 
>> I'm not quite sure why we are counting these authors from mandating 
>> institutions. The percentage of Mendel-OA papers per year is one benchmark. 
>> Another is the percentage of Mendel-OA papers at a given UNMANDATED 
>> institution.
>> 
>> Do you see why I am now interested in the ‘social media’ pull rather 
>> than the IR push?
>> 
>> Not yet, I'm afraid. What are needed in order to judge how well Mendel-OA is 
>> doing relative to gold OA, unmandated green OA ad mandated green OA is the 
>> comparative percentages I mention above.
>> 
>> This perhaps begins to answer whether I can I justify my excitement?
>> 
>> Mendeley is an exciting, useful tool -- but whether it is accelerating OA is 
>> not at all clear from the data you cite. (And I'm not clear on how how 
>> Mendeley stocks up: Only through authors importing, or does it also harvest 
>> from what's already on the web (i.e., unmandated green OA>?
>> 
>> Chrs, S
>> 
>> 
>> 
> 


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