> Media Favours BJP: Hype And Reality > > Harkishan Singh Surjeet > > THESE days the media are at their game again --- the game of projecting > as if the BJP led NDA is sure to come back to power. One of the papers > has even dubbed the coming Lok Sabha polls as unnecessary, on the > presumption that their outcome is already known to one and all. But, as > Yogendra Yadav puts it, "If the media were to decide elections, the > general elections to the 14th Lok Sabha would be a pointless exercise" > (The Hindu, March 15). He then adds that he is "not convinced of this > established wisdom" and that "years of watching elections has convinced > me of the value of political commonsense and has taught me to disregard > hype." > RECALLING A BIT OF HISTORY > > IN fact, the role of a sizeable chunk of the media consists in > generating precisely such hype at this stage when the nation is to go > through the 14th general elections. Yet this is not something new. For > the last several years, what we have been witnessing is that come an > election and the media pundits go wholehog to make the people believe > that the BJP is going to win the elections hands down. This is precisely > what they did in 1991 and 1996, and in some later elections. Moreover, > in 1998, despite all their projections of a landslide for the BJP, the > latter could form a government only after hurriedly cobbling a motley > post-poll alliance. Then, in 1999, the BJP could not increase a single > seat in Lok Sabha, compared to 1998, though its allies did register > sizeable gains. > > We may even recall here a bit of history --- that whatever seats the BJP > got in 1996 and 1998 was, to a considerable extent, because of the sense > of revulsion the people had developed for the Congress regime of 1991-96 > and then for the meanest type of Congress politics during 1996-98. So > much so that the party first forced the United Front government to > change its leader and then brought the UF government altogether down for > the narrowest kind of considerations. In contrast, in 1999, the BJP had > no such negative factor to exploit and no positive achievement of its > government to bank upon. Further, the Kargil episode also enabled it to > exploit the popular sentiment though, ironically, the BJP led > government's own gross negligence was itself responsible for the > terrorist incursions into the area. > The inference is obvious. If only the BJP were not in alliance with > about two dozen parties and if only the Kargil episode had not taken > place, the party would probably have suffered in 1999 itself. > > CLASS INTEREST AT STAKE > > BUT it is precisely these kinds of considerations that our media pundits > very conveniently ignore. It is therefore no wonder that, one after > another, most of their forecasts have miserably failed to materialise in > the last one decade or more. This is not to deny that a few of their > pre-poll surveys or exit surveys have been close to the mark; yet one > cannot say that this was altogether devoid of an element of fluke. > > Yet, one point must not be overlooked. If some people are fond of saying > that people's memory is short, they must also add that the memory of > many of our media pundits is no less short. However, there is a crucial > difference here. If people's memory is short because of their day-to-day > preoccupation with the struggle for life, the memory of media pundits is > short because of their own choice. To forget how their past predictions > had miserably failed is, to put it plainly, necessary to serve the > vested interest of those who pay them hefty salaries and perks. > The point is obvious. A very, very large chunk of the Indian big > bourgeoisie and also of foreign multinationals have unmistakably > indicated that the BJP or the BJP led NDA is the safest bet in so far as > their class interests are concerned. Going by a recent newspaper report > (Hindustan Times, March 5), while the Congress has hired only 4 > helicopters for election campaigning, the BJP has hired as many as 20. > This only gives a boost to what the people widely believe --- that the > BJP has been the largest beneficiary of the Indian as wall as foreign > bourgeoisie's largesse. But these sections of bourgeoisie also know that > if only the BJP comes back to power, they would be able to recover may > times over what they have donated. > Economists like Jean Dreze and others have already shown that before the > Vajpayee government recommended the Lok Sabha's dissolution, it gave > hefty concessions to the rich while claiming to give relief (widely > called "sops") to other segments of the population. In such a situation, > one can well guess to what extent the BJP would go to repay its real, > behind-the-scene benefactors. > POLITICAL RACECOURSE > > THE sale of public sector concerns to private parties at dirt-cheap > prices is only one case in point, among many, through here too examples > like the BALCO and Centaur Hotel stand testimony to their shameless > perfidies. Nay, one of their ministers was so arrogant as to abuse even > a constitutional authority like the CAG when the latter pointed out an > irregularity in the sale of a public sector concern. > > To reiterate, the bourgeoisie, Indian and foreign, well know which horse > to bet upon. It is therefore quite natural that, like professional > racecourse goers, they keep shouting in favour of the horse they have > bet upon. > > This is not to forget that politics is not exactly like a racecourse. In > a racecourse, mere shouting does not necessarily make a particular horse > win, even though professional gamblers do make guesses as to which of > the horses is likely to win. In politics, on the contrary, the > bourgeoisie and other exploiting classes have not only put their bet > upon the BJP but are also trying to ensure that the political horse of > their choice wins. > > In short, all the so called expert analyses in the bourgeois controlled > media, all the psephological exercises and the like are not just to > guess the mood of the masses; they are in fact attempts to influence the > mass mood in a particular direction. These are calculated moves to > ensure a particular outcome by repeatedly telling the people, even > without having a basis for it, that that particular outcome is already > ensured. > > A COUNTRY OF DIVERSITIES > > THERE is not denying, however, that there are people who are not taken > in by all this media hype. For example, Yogendra Yadav, already referred > to, is prepared to accept, on the basis of certain factors, that the NDA > is today better placed than the opposition camp. Yet, to him, "all this > is not enough to conclude that the NDA is headed for a repeat of its > performance and is sure to come back to power. For this to be true, one > has to produce evidence that there is not only no anti-incumbency mood > against the NDA, but also that there is a positive sentiment, something > of a 'feel good' factor across the country." > Yadav's contention is unequivocal: "A BJP victory appears to be a > foregone conclusion if the media and the opinion polls are to be > believed. But that is really not the case." > Earlier, in Hindustan Times (March 5), a similar sentiment was voiced by > the paper's scribe Shekhar Iyer: "The NDA might appear to be riding high > on the India Shining campaign, but mathematics on the ground suggests > that the ruling alliance will find it difficult to increase its seats in > the Lok Sabha. In fact, it would not be surprising if the opposition > gained ground in some states." > The question is: Whom to believe? Those who predict the NDA's victory or > those who are skeptical about it? The answer will be obvious if one > notes that the former want us to overlook the very, very, very complex > entity that we call Indian society. What to talk of others, even the > Hindu community is not a uniform group in all parts of the country; the > Hindus of Tamilnadu, for example, are vastly different from those of the > North East who, in turn, are no less different from those of Jammu & > Kashmir, and no amount of phrase mongering in the name of Hindutva can > obliterate these differences which also get reflected in their voting > behaviours. On the contrary, skeptics say one must not be taken in by > the supposed uniformity claimed by media pundits and insist that > differences must be kept in view. Yadav puts it succinctly: "Ever since > 1996, the Lok Sabha elections are no longer a single nationwide race --- > for all practical purposes the general election now is 28 electoral > races held simultaneously; the national level verdict is nothing but the > sum total of all the state level verdicts. A state is the effective unit > of political choice even in Lok Sabha elections." > To this, one can only add that in case of big states like UP and > Maharashtra, even the west does not know what the east is doing. > > STATEWISE CALCULATIONS > > THUS, while not denying for a moment the basic unity of India that > underlies these diversities, it is precisely the latter which make the > media predictions untenable. Some of the analyses that concentrated on > state-wise or zone-wise calculations lead one to this very conclusion. > > Here, on the basis of data, we try to derive our own conclusions. As we > know, the BJP and allies won all the 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh, 7 in > Delhi and 10 in Haryana, and in these states, naturally, there is > absolutely no chance of an increase in their tallies. Here, if anything, > they can only lose. It is being believed, for example, that the BJP may > lose at least 2 seats in HP and 3 in Delhi. In Haryana, the INLD and BJP > have already parted company and are now at daggers drawn. They contested > the polls together in 1998, which also meant that large chunks of rural > as well as urban voters voted for the same combine, but now a > rural-urban split is certain to cause grievous harms to both these parties. > > In Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP got 2 out of 6 seats, with no possibility of > any increase. The fact that the National Conference has already deserted > the NDA, can only make the situation worse for the BJP. > > In 1999, when Uttaranchal was part of Uttar Pradesh, the BJP had got 4 > seats, conceding one to the Congress. The story doing the round here is > that the party may lose 2 to all the 4 seats. > > In 1999, the BJP and allies had already reached near saturation points > in Orissa (19 out of 21), Bihar (30/40), Andhra Pradesh (36/42) and > Maharashtra (28/48). But the BJP's allies are today in a bad shape in > all these states. The BJD has suffered a serious split in Orissa while > in Bihar the JD(U), which recently got a new face through a hotchpotch > plastic surgery, is not only facing internal dissensions but also the > ire of its supporters whose expectations is has been unable to fulfil. > (The party suffers the same plight in Karnataka.) In Andhra, a > formidable force against the TDP-BJP combine is just about to take a > final shape, and is likely to give a major jolt to the ruling combine. > Similarly, in Maharashtra, according to Yadav, the Congress-NCP > alliance, supported by others, "may reduce the NDA's tally." > Among the Left strongholds, the BJP stands no chance in Kerala or > Tripura while in West Bengal the Left Front is all set to overturn the > Trinamul-BJP apple cart. Here the latter combine had got 10 out of 42 > seats last time, but the tally is certain to come down this time. It is > not surprising that the Trinamul chief Mamata Banerjee is seeking to > have a tacit alliance with the Congress in order to salvage her > prestige. But if the Congress takes the bait, it can do so only at its > own cost. > > In Punjab, the Akali-BJP combine had already reached a low point last > time and they were expecting to improve their tally now. But recent > trends in mass mood give an indication that their hope may not materialise. > > In the recent assembly elections, the BJP wrested Chhattisgarh, > Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh from the Congress; this is what heightened > the BJP's expectations and made it prepone the Lok Sabha polls. The > party believes that it will be able to maintain the support it had > received in November. But the thing is that the BJP already has 8 out of > 11 Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh and 16 out of 25 in Rajasthan. Will > the party be able to improve upon its tallies in these states? It seems > doubtful. The Indian Express (March 15) has already reported that the > promises made by BJP for the November assembly polls may boomerang upon > itself in Madhya Pradesh. > Gujarat has been the BJP's strongest bastion, but the same can be said > about this state too, where the BJP got 20 out of 26 seats in 1999. > In Jharkhand, where the BJP's tally is 11/14, it is not only facing > internal dissidence; even a strong anti-incumbency trend is discernible > here. > If the party, by chance, marginally improves its performance in > Karnataka, how far it will compensate for its losses elsewhere, is > anybody's guess. > As for Tamilnadu, the DMK-led alliance got 22 out of 39 seats in 1999 > while the BJP bagged 4. Now the DMK and its allies are aligned to the > Congress and others, and the combination appears formidable. The AIADMK, > which toppled the Vajpayee government in 1999, is now with the BJP. But, > in terms of the seats allotted, it has already shown the BJP what its > real worth is. > > The North East states account for only 25 seats in all, and nobody is > prepared to believe that the BJP may get more than 4 or 5 seats here. In > Assam, the biggest state of the region, the AGP was in alliance with the > BJP but itself failed to win a single seat. Now the AGP is set to go it > alone. In Meghalaya, the Sangma outfit's debacle in recent local bodies > polls only shows that Sangma can be, at the best, a lame horse for the > BJP. In any case, now his outfit has got absorbed in Trinamul Congress. > DESPERATE TO THE CORE > > AND now remains Uttar Pradesh, the biggest state of the Indian Union, > with 80 Lok Sabha seats. Here the BJP "should be content if it can > retain the 25 seats it has now." To Yadav, the "NDA cannot possibly > improve upon its tally in the northern zone; its losses may vary from > none to a loss of 20 seats." > It is therefore not surprising that the BJP is trying its best to keep > the SP, BSP, Congress and RLD away from one another. The party had to > eat a humble pie and open its doors to Kalyan Singh whom it had, at the > instance of Vajpayee, expelled from its ranks. It was propagated that > Singh's re-entry into the BJP would improve its chances, particularly in > west UP where Ajit Singh's RLD has deserted the NDA. Yet, today, the > party appears desperate to the core. Kalyan Singh has run away from his > home district, Aligarh, to contest from Bulandshahar, and Vinay Katiyar > has said good-bye to Faizabad, hoping that Lakhimpur Khiri will be a > safer pasture for him. > This desperation is understandable. As pointed out, from Jammu & Kashmir > in the north to Tamilnadu in the south, ten odd parties have quit the > NDA bandwagon and this is enough to give the BJP leaders a lot of > headache, as the party has little tangible to show as its achievements. > As for the parties that are still in the NDA, many are in a bad shape, > facing internal dissensions or people's ire or both. In such a scenario, > if the poll results give a rude shock to the BJP and NDA, their Shining > India campaign notwithstanding, no one will be surprised except perhaps > the media pundits. > end > > > > Ask your friends to subscribe by sending a request to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > also visit: > http://www.cpim.org > http://pd.cpim.org > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > also visit: > http://www.cpim.org > http://pd.cpim.org > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > To visit your group on the web, go to: > http://in.groups.yahoo.com/group/marxistindia/ > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: > http://in.docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ > >
########################################################################## # Send submissions for Goanet to [EMAIL PROTECTED] # # PLEASE remember to stay on-topic (related to Goa), and avoid top-posts # # More details on Goanet at http://joingoanet.shorturl.com/ # # Please keep your discussion/tone polite, to reflect respect to others # ##########################################################################
