Understanding Goa's population puzzle [July 11, 2005 is World Population Day. This is an article written some time back.]
by Frederick Noronha [EMAIL PROTECTED] ON THE INTERNET, the population clock simply does not tick away for Goa. Check out the Population Foundation of India, and see the dizzying manner in which more births are added to India's population. In Bihar, hardly 15 seconds tick by before a new mouth is added. In the case of Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, it's even more acute. One every eight seconds or so. (See http://www.popfound.org/popclock.htm) If you visit the world's population clock, the tension is even more palpable, as the figures slip past much faster. (See http://www.voww.net/vowwzone/clock.htm) More starving mouths are added to the planet's population at the fraction of every second. India's own population clock covers some 15 select states. There are states like Andhra, Assam, Bihar. Large, populous and growing states. Goa, significantly doesn't merit a clock of its own. Other states in a similar league -- Kerala and Tamil Nadu -- have clocks which tick away only slowly. (It might be of interest to note that the population clocks for India are run by the Population Foundation of India. Set up in 1970, and was earlier known as the Family Planning Foundation, it was launched by a "dedicated group of industrialists" and "population activists" led by the late captain of Indian industry, JRD Tata. Perhaps these influences shows up in the perspectives.) If you chance upon these figures, it would be easy to conclude that many of the Planet's problems are caused by that old bug-bear -- 'overpopulation'. From this, the next conclusion you would perhaps draw is that the poor badly need family planning services to control their numbers. Goa is one state which drops more than enough hints that such a logic is far from the reality. India's smallest state (population approx 1.35 million, area 3700 sq.km) is seeing very few births. In the last four decades since Portuguese rule ended in this once-sleepy colonial backwater, the population has more than doubled -- but this, contrary to what the population clocks could lead us to believe, was due to immigration sparked off more by the kind of lop-sided and unbalanced development India has been seeing, both in its own colonial times and later. Compared to states like Uttar Pradesh, where the total fertility rate is five children/woman, in states like Goa (and Kerala) it has fallen to below two children/women. (See Gandotra MM, et al 'Fertility in India', IIPS-Mumbai, 1998 May. 70 p. National Family Health Survey Subject Reports No 9.) But, unlike nearby Kerala, this former Portuguese colony has not got the attention it deserves, in understanding features of the local population scenario. Goa is an unusual case. A closer look at it could possibly help to understand more closely the population puzzle that stares this small state in the face, and also issues that are likely to come up in more parts of India in the years ahead. For instance, in what way is Goa's population scenario similar to Kerala? What is it that is unusual about these two states -- both coastal states, located on the southern half of the Indian west coast -- that makes them similar in ways? What is the link between migration and declining population growth? What is the attitude and role of the minorities in regions which have a lower birth rate? In a situation of falling population growth, how does public opinion and religious opinion react to the situation? Above all, do we have lessons from regions like Goa that India could anticipate across the planet's second-most populous country in the years ahead? -x-x-x- IT IS MID-JUNE AND MINISTERS and politicians in Goa, India's smallest state on its west coast, are making the appropriate statements about the need for smaller families. They're also using more politically-correct terminology, 'family welfare' rather than the now-discredited 'family-planning' or 'birth control'. But in Goa, actually, the boot is on the other foot. Here is a small state which has -- over the past four decades, and particularly since the 'eighties -- seen a sharp decline in fertility levels. In fact, the population growth rate has fallen to below replacement. [S Rajaram (Demography India, 1997 Jan-Jun;26(1):93-108 in 'Secular Changes in the Patterns of Reproduction in Goa in the 1980s) looks at two sample surveys in 1984 and 1992-93. Rajaram argues a drastic decline in the fertility of currently married women in Goa occurred in between the surveys. While marriage age rose during in period, the effect of this factor on fertility has been nearly neutralized by a reduction in age at first birth, the study indicates. Rajaram says Goa's fertility decline occurred irrespective of socioeconomic characteristics of women attributed to the "decline in age at last birth and an increase in the open birth interval". Additional study is needed to reveal the underlying determinants of this widespread fertility decline, argues this study.] Frequently-arising debates about issues like the 'Goan identity' are indicative of the fears that such trends (apart from in-migration) sparks among a segment of influential public opinion. (See 'Goa Today', August 2002 issue cover-theme story on 'Goan Identity'.) Elsewhere in the globe too, such realities are cause for alarm and concern, among some quarters who view this issues as a battle for numbers. "What all this (the falling TFRs) mean is that if someone built a fence around Europe and let no one emigrate or immigrate, and if the current rate of population growth kept falling at the same rate as they have been since 1965, the last European would die around 2285, followed by the last remaining North American in 2290...." argues a book titled 'The Facts of Life - An Authoritative Guide to Life and Family Issues'. It's conservative approach is clear, as are its assumptions about the fall in population continuing "at the same rate". But the presence of books like these in some circles in Goa shows that subtle or not-so-subtle fears aimed at fueling panic about the Caucasian gene-pool can be picked up in other regions of the globe too. But, beyond the panic caused by such approaches, this is an issue which is far from adequately understood. Nor is it adequately studied, as is the case with the state of Kerala, which been repeatedly put under the researcher's microscope as a state noted for its demographic transition. Take some recent figures: Fertility is lower in Goa than in any other Indian state. At current fertility levels, women in Goa will have an average of 1.8 children each throughout their childbearing years. This is much lower than the Indian national average of 2.9 children. [Total fertility rates (TFRs) varied from two children/woman in Goa and Kerala states, to 5 children/woman in Uttar Pradesh. TFRs tend to be higher among rural women, less educated women, Muslim women, and scheduled caste and scheduled tribe women. (Gandotra MM; Retherford RD; Pandey A; Luther NY; Mishra VK. International Institute for Population Sciences, 1998 May.70 p.National Family Health Survey Subject Reports No. 9 in 'Fertility in India')] [In 1952, India was the first country in the world to launch a national programme, emphasizing family planning to the extent necessary for reducing birth rates "to stabilize population at a level consistent with the requirement of national economy". After 1952,the sharp decline in death rates were not accompanied by a similar drop in birth rates.The National Health Policy, 1983 expected that India's replacement levels for its total fertility rate (TFR) were to be achieved by the year 2000. Books like the above cited 'The Facts of Life', representing a Conservative Catholic perspective, says the country of Mahatma Gandhi has been "a population control battleground fordecades".] In recent years, Goa's total fertility rate (TRF) has hovered around 1.8 to 1.9 children per women. This means that the small state has 'attained' -- or 'fallen', depending on how one views it -- below-replacement level fertility. Interestingly, fertility is negligible for women in the 15-19 age group, with only four per cent of total fertility being contributed by women of this age. Contrast this with the rest of India, where the total fertility rate is 3.7 women per children, and 17% of the total fertility is accounted for by births to women aged 15-19 years. Besides, Goa's total fertility rate, in the 1990s itself, fell from 1.9 children per women to 1.8. Across the age groups, the trend is also showing, as the falling trend climbs upwards to the group of elder women. For instance, the average number of children ever born to women aged 40-49 years fell by half a child between the 1992-93 and 1998=99. The fall was from 3.7 to 3.2 children per women. (National Family Health Survey, India 1998-99, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, March 2002, p xviii) Goa also has the second-highest percentage of childless women in the country, ranking second only to Andhra Pradesh. In Goa, some 11.8 per cent of currently-married women in the 21-49 years group are childless, compared with seven per cent at the national level. "State-wise, Andhra Pradesh shows (the) highest percentage of childless women (13.3 percent) in India, followed by Goa (11.8 percent). Kerala, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have 11.6, 11.4 and 9.5 percent childless women. Thus, the southern states show a high prevalence of childlessness, which is quite above the national average," says a study on the subject, presented in September 2002. ('Spatial Variation and Socio-Economic and Demographic Correlates of Childlessness in India, Praween Kumar Agarwal and Sayeed Unisa, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai 400088. Paper presented at the International Conference on 'Socio-Medical Perspectives of Childlessness', Goa, September 23-27, 2002) Research scholar Praween Kumar Agarwal and associate professor Sayeed Unisa, of the Deonar-Mumbai based International Institute for Population Studies (IIPS), do not go into why this is so. . But women in Goa are known to marry at a later age, which could be in part caused by their higher education levels. Goa's higher affluence levels, compared to the rest of India, could also have a role in reducing poverty, bringing us back to the old argument that 'economic development could be the best contraceptive'. These dry facts are borne out by real-life experiences. Coming across a pregnant woman in today's Goa is much more a rare experience than just a few decades back, in living memory of many. Goa, with its current population levels, be considered too small a state to warrant specific attention in a country. But, even while being unaware of the debate that it could spark off, tiny Goa is questioning whether a decline in the birth rate can be more easily brought -x-x-x- To understand the issue more closely, it might be better to look at some of the varied facets of the population puzzle that Goa presents. * Statistics tend to conceal the reality of the situation. Women in Goa and Kerala are considered to be healthier than in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Life expectancy at birth for women in Goa is comparatively high at 72 years, as against 62 for all India. But there are problem areas too facing women in the state. Goa's sex-ratio has shifted to positive to negative as far as women go, with there being an excess of men. This shift has happened over the past four decades. More on this issue below. Besides this, literacy in women is still 15% less than men. Girls are much more likely than boys to drop-out of school. One recent report by the Goa State Commission for Women showed this state ranking as 11th in India in the proportion of reported offences against women. The high incidence of abortion, 30% of babies being born with low birth rate, 40% rates of anaemia in women are "all indicative there there is still tremendous scope for improvement in the status of women's health". (The State of Goa's Health, p. 7) * Low 'couple protection' rate, yet low birth rate: Strangely, Goa's couple-protection rate is relatively lower at 34.1 per cent compared to the Indian figure of 46.5 per cent. "Inspite of the low couple protection rate, Goa has achieved an all-time low birth rate, due to other factors -- namely low fertility rate, late marriages, the use of traditional methods (of birth control), unmarried women, and the temporary separation of husband and wife due to various reasons," argues the deputy director of Asilo Hospital and chief medical officer for the Family Welfare Programme Dr Emerico De Souza ('Family Welfare Programme', in World Health Day 2001 Souvenir, published by the Recreation Club of the Directorate of Health Services, Panaji, April 2001). * 'Traditional' family planning methods: Official studies label methods of contraception as largely 'modern' and 'traditional'. So, NFHS-2 suggests that half of all currently married women have, at some time, used a modern method and 22 per cent have ever used a traditional method. Considering that the Catholic Church, an influential opinion-shaper among the state's large minority population, has been promoting the so-called 'natural' method of family planning, the significant role played by such methods are understandable, even though these methods have not been retained over tradition, but have been picked up in recent times due to ideological reasons promoted by the Church. [See 'Catholic Church's stress on 'natural family planning' finds takers in Goa', by Frederick Noronha, in Herald, 2002] There are also other trends emerging. Doctors reported that in 1998-99, a total of 4347 tubectomy operators were done. But vasectomy, the male-based sterilisation method, is "not accepted well" in Goa and just 11 operations were performed during the entire year, most of these being on "labourers and the migrant population". ('Family Welfare Programme' by Dr Emerico De Souza, in World Health Day 2001 Souvenir, published by the Recreation Club of the Directorate of Health Services, Panaji, April 2001). NFHS-2 says that less than one per cent of women reported male sterilization as their current method of family planning. Female sterilizations outnumbered male sterilizations by 65 to 1, indicating the burden of family planning falling on women (p 79). * Role of minorities in accepting family planning: Goa's case suggests that contrary to the stereotypes built up, religious-differences are not as important as class-factors in the acceptance of family planning. V A Pai Panandikar and P N Chauduri 'Demographic Transition in Goa and Its Policy Implications', Uppal-New Delhi, 1983). argue that "Goa has a significant percentage of Catholic population (about 30 per cent, in the seventies). The traditional attitudes of the Catholic Church have not been very helpful..." (p 39). But NFHS-2 found that usage rate of family planning methods varied in a small way among women of different communities -- Hindus 50%, Muslims 48% and Christians 40%. Largely Church-taught 'traditional' methods use accounts for 43 percent of contraceptive use by Christians however, with just 15 and four percent among Hindus and Muslims respectively. Muslim women had a slightly higher average number of children, pointing perhaps more to the predominantly lower economic affluence of this community in the state, rather than religious-based differences. Goa's case suggests that rather than community, it is the standard of living acquired by a family, group or community that determines their acceptable or otherwise of smaller families. As one Catholic said, on condition of anonymity, and half-seriously: "We don't allow the Pope into our bedrooms." * Not everybody is doing fine: Travel by any public bus in Goa and you will quickly realise that not every Goan woman fits into the stereotype of this state -- as a middle-class, Westernised entity, almost an oasis in the rest of the Indian situation. Still, a large section -- often earmarked by the reality of caste and class -- gets excluded from the 'benefits' of economic growth. Malnutrition, and anaemia too according to the statistics, afflicts quite a section of the state's less-visible population. "Women do not constitute a homogeneous group," reminds The State of Goa's Health, p. 7. It goes on to argue that the needs of rural and urban women, upper class and working class women, migrant and local women and women working in the organised and unorganised sectors could well differ. Rao SR, Pandey A and Shaji KI (Social Biology, 1997 Spring-Summer; 44(1-2), 101-10) in 'Child Mortality in Goa: A Cross-Sectional Analysis' give a hint of the unevenness of the situation. For instance, child mortality was three times higher among children from households without toilets compared to children with toilets. The probability of dying was six times higher among children living in households with a low Standard of Living Index (SLI) than in households with a high SLI. Children from middle SLI households had a 3.5 times higher risk than the highest SLI children. The probability of child mortality was very high among children with mothers with just a primary education or mothers with no education. Children of working mothers had slightly lower mortality. Interestingly, child mortality was higher in urban areas. Women face differing problems on the basis of caste, placed of origin, geographic location within Goa and also religion. Migrant women, and rural uneducated Goan women are among those facing problems much like their sisters across the country. There are clearly pockets of pain in this state. (See Goa women in prostitution get stigmatized, traffickers pass unnoticed. By Frederick Noronha, Aug 2002). * Sex ratio -- where does Goa really stand? Goa's sex ratio peaked at 1120 women per thousand males in the year 1921, just after a time of famine and disease which coincided with large-scale emigration out of Goa, particularly to Mumbai (then called Bombay). In 1950, the ratio went up to 1128. But 1960 was the last time when the sex-ratio was favourable to women, at 1066. Subsequently as in-migration to Goa accelerated, the ratio dropped to 981 (in 1971), 975 (1981), 967 (1991) and 960 (2001). [Census of India 2001, Series 31: Goa. Provisional Population Totals. P R Bumb, Director of Census Operations, Goa. p. 24-25] But migration is one explanation, and there are other issues involved. Male-preferences could be also one, as a debate (see below) suggests. For, migration would affect the sex-ratio at certain age groups, but not at the stage of child-birth itself. There has been much debate and controversy over Goa's sex-ratio. Really, how women-friendly are the figures? What is the cause of the decline of this women-per-thousand-males figure in recent years? Goa University microbologist and researcher on a number of issues related to Goa, Dr Nandkumar Kamat argues that a "single report" appearing in a reputed national daily has caused "immense damage" to Goa. (The Navhind Times, July 30, 2001, 'The Truth Behind (The) Falling Sex Ratio', p 8). This report in question raises the possibility of female foeticide in the region. Kamat argues that the statistics could be misleading, and that female foeticide or sex-selection to eliminate the female foetus is "not, repeat not, the cause of (the) drop in the gender ratio". Goa, he argues, is not a "gynophobic, female-hating culture" and on the contrary is the "land of the earth goddess (bhu-devta) and mother goddess worshippers". He suggests that those making such suggestion fail to look at "migration tables and the gender-ratio of the labour class". Kamat argues that there are 3,30,000 migrants in Goa in a population of 1.35 million. "Let the public health experts produce the sex ratio for this section of (the) Goan population," he argues. But these issues are strongly questioned by Dr Vikram Patel, who runs the health-based NGO Sangath, and has been closely involved in studies related to a number of health issues in the state. Says Patel (e-mail communication, dated August 1, 2001): "It is clear from the Census 2001 that the sex ratio in Goa has fallen in the past decade from 967 to 960. In fact, the sex ratio in Goa has been showing a steady decline from 1971, matching a declining fertility rate." Patel says one possible reason for the declining sex ratio is that fewer girls are being born than before. The birth sex ratio for the period of 1993-8 was 928/1000, a low figure indeed. In the equivalent period a decade earlier (1983-88), the birth sex ratio in Goa was 946/1000. The sex ratio at birth in Goa was a relatively normal at 103-4 males for every 100 females in the 1981 and 1991 censuses. However, the most recent birth statistics available show that in 1997 the rate was 107 which went up further in 1998 to 109. Given the enormous sensitivity of these figures to time trends, this change should be viewed with concern. "It is notable that demographers consider a male excess over girls at birth of 107 as being 'highly masculine'. Thus, the number of girls born per 1000 boys has fallen in 10 years," argues Patel. Patel points out that several population scientists across India have suggested that one possible reason for the falling sex-ratio is sex-selective abortions. There are no specific studies on reasons for abortion in Goa, according to Patel. This could be " because most abortions take place furtively in private clinics where little data is kept". But, undeniably, abortions are common in Goa. The National Family Health Survey of 1998-9 reported that induced abortions accounted for 3.9% of all pregnancies in Goa, more than two times greater rate than the all-India average. Goa ranked fourth highest in India in terms of proportion of pregnancies ending in abortion. If female foeticide is not the only reason for the low sex-ratio, Patel believes another reason could be with smaller families, parents are planning their families "along the lines of gender" This means, families who already have a living boy child may choose to stop having more children after one or two children only. On the other hand, those who have one or two girls, will continue trying until they have a boy. Thus, avoiding future pregnancies through contraception is another way in which son preference can be expressed. "This process is as worrisome as sex selective abortion because it implies that family planning is influenced by gender," says Patel. He notes that the argument that migration is a major reason for the changing sex ratios may well be partly true for the adult population but cannot apply for young children, since they are not migrating to Goa to work. * Other side of the coin -- infertility: Figures about growing childlessness in Goa are perhaps reflect in the growing ground-reality of a number of 'infertility clinics' sprouting up in various towns of this small state, and declining birth-rates reflecting also in lower admissions in schools. One recent seminar also saw a paper by Vasco da Gama-based Dr Uday L Nagarseker on 'assisted reproductive technology' (ARTs) and ectopic pregnancies. Says Dr Nagarsekar: "In the fast moving world of today, ART has become the procedure of choice in the management of infertility. More and more couples who do not conceive in even six months of trial go to the specialist who in turn subjects them to ART procedures." But, he cautions, ARTs could have their own "well-documented side effects", and hence should not be tried "too soon". "Fertility treatment such as IVF and ICSI can result in an increased risk of multiple pregnancies, pregnancy complications including ectopic pregnancy, low birth rate, major birth defects and long-term disabilities among surviving infants," he warns. Assisted reproductive technology could range from simple to sophisticated techniques. "Thousands of babies are born all over the world using these techniques. But at the same time, more and more reports are being published about the increased incidence of ectopic pregnancies linked to ART," warns Dr Nagarseker. (For a discussion on this issue see 'Waiting for baby: infertility a growing concern for couples in Goa' by Frederick Noronha, July 2002). * Confusion over the issue: Goa being a small state, it often gets overlooked in national level statistics. This leads to a misunderstanding of the situation here. Way back in December 1988, official attention started getting focussed on a strange problem. (Government of Goa, Directorate of Education. Part File No 148/8/88-89/STAT opened on 23.12.88) Goa's primary school enrolment was drastically falling then, and politicians were glibly saying that this was due to the fall in the state's birth rate. Goa's then Education Secretary Shailaja Chandra pointed to a news-report questioning this theory and asked whether the falling enrolment trend was really due to population decline or other reasons. After doing the rounds of many official desks, the findings of this study were interesting. Finally, this simplistic view of the politician was dismissively thrashed by officials who commented, "The birth-rate theory (that falling birth rates are leading to declining primary school enrolments) does not hold since the population increase is greater than NRR, pointing to greater in-migration." This still left the question unanswered -- how were enrolments in schools nearly one-and-half times the number of surviving children born earlier and who should have grown up to join school in that year? 'Discrepancies' in reporting school admission figures were believed to be possibly responsible; but that only underlines the depth of lack of suitable facts and figures. * Figures for concern or trend of India tomorrow: Are these figures something we need to be worried about? Or, does this show the potential direction towards which the rest of India could slowly be moving, as the country reaches new points in 'demographic transition'? Tiny Goa perhaps has some lessons for the rest of this country of one thousand million. ****************** Fertility in Goa is now at replacement level; women are marrying in their 20s and having their first child in their mid-20s. (The State of Goa's Health, p 6) ******************* FAMILY PLANNING AND THE THIRD WORLD ----------------------------------- Globally, the dominant discourse, continues to use the views of 19th century cleric of the Church of England, Thomas Malthus, to use "overpopulation" as an explanation for poverty, death and even environmental degradation. (See 'The Malthus Factor: Poverty, Politics and Population in Capitalist Development, The Corner House, UK: Briefing 20. July 2000). In Malthus's first 'Essay on the Principle of Population', published in 1798, population pressure is treated as a "law of nature" which makes poverty natural and inevitable. Instead, he proposed, at most, delayed marriage or 'moral restraint'. His aim was not to reduce population pressures but to reduce the obligation of the rich to mitigate human misery. In particular, he advocated abolishing the poor laws, the closest thing that existed in his time to social welfare. By suggesting that the fertility of the poor -- rather than chronic or periodic unemployment, the fencing of common-lands, or high food prices -- was the main source of their poverty and by implying that the poor's fertility could not be significantly influenced by human intervention, Malthus acquitted the property-owning class and the political economic system of accountability for poverty. Demography has long been a scary subject. It is particularly worrisome to conservative public opinion, in whatever shape it comes. Demography has problematised "overpopulation" largely as a question of women's fertility. Goa seems to be going out of its way to prove Malthus wrong, even if the many dimensions of this issue are yet to be adequately understood. There are other interesting reports that show the manner in which population is still perceived across the globe. Steve Almond, writing recently in the website nerve.com (http://www.nerve.com/dispatches/almond/sexAid/), narrates how the vision of entrepreneurs like Phil Harvey leads them to "build a porn empire to save the Third World". Adam & Eve is the US's largest "adult-oriented mail-order company" located outside Chapel Hill, North Carolina. What's interesting is that Phil Harvey founded the company three decades ago as a way to generate seed money for family planning programs in the so-called 'developing world'. After graduating from Harvard in 1960, Harvey enrolled in the Peace Corps. He was drafted instead, and served a brief stint in the army, after which he traveled to India to supervise feeding programs for the charity CARE. "I was in charge of the pre-school feeding program. Every year we would increase the beneficiary roles and every year we'd sit back and realize we were farther behind than when we started. It became very clear to me that shipping food from the U.S. to India was nuts. That if the industrial world really wanted to be helpful to countries like India, voluntary family planning was the way to do it." Harvey returned to the States to earn a masters degree in family planning administration at the University of North Carolina. In Chapel Hill, he met a British doctor, Tim Black, who shared his vision of making contraception available on a mass scale in the Third World. Initially, they launched a mail-order condom business, when sending condoms through the mail was still illegal. They set up a non-profit, called DK International. (The organization is named after the late D.K. Tyagi, one of India's first crusaders for family planning, who befriended Harvey during his years in New Delhi.) Meanwhile, the mail-order business continued to grow. But while other products failed to sell, "everytime we put something with erotic appeal in the catalog, the bells would ring". -x-x-x- Goa tends to challenge such 'traditional' Western-originating theses. Contraceptive use is "very low" in Goa but, strangely, so is fertility -- which is the lowest among all Indian states. Figures emerging from the survey also indicate that men bear only a very limited burden of the role of family-planning. Female sterilization is -- by far -- the most popular method, used by 59 percent of all current contraceptive users. In all, some 28 percent of currently married women are sterilized, figures emerging from the survey indicate. Usage rates of the pill and IUD are very low, at one and two percent, respectively. Men bear only a very limited role of contraception: five percent of women report using condoms. Less than 1 percent of women reported in the survey that their husbands are sterilized, the survey found. Way back in 1983, attention was being drawn over Goa's falling birth rate. V.A Pai Panandikar, the director of the Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research and himself of Goan origin, has argued that by 1979, Goa had already attained the birth rate of 21 per thousand. This made it one of the lowest-fertility areas in a country where the national average was then about 35 births per thousand. Panandikar raised the question of whether Goa offered "hope for the rest of the country in terms of available options for fertility reduction". He also pointed out that while Kerala "has been widely commented upon by Indian and foreign scholars" Goa actually has "one of the lowest birth rates in the country" even though admittedly much smaller than Kerala. Over the years, that situation has changed only a little, with a few demography researchers adding Goa to the list of other much-studied states like Kerala, and, sometimes Tamil Nadu. India was one of the first national governments to launch an ambitious family planning programme. Taking the example of Goa, Panandikar and his co-author P.N.Chaudhuri concede that "the assumptions underlying the programme were somewhat misconceived" as planners believed that people did not take to birth control measures because the know-how and appropriate contraceptive technology was not available to them. It was also assumed that the "overpopulated" Third World would willingly take to contraceptives if the know-how, techniques and contraceptives were made available to them. (Ahmed, Imtiaz, 1980. 'Family Planning in India: A Plea for Reorientation'. Unpublished paper. Cited in 'Demographic Transition in Goa and Its Policy Implications' by V A Pai Panandikar and P N Chaudhuri, Uppal-New Delhi, 1983). Panandikar argues that the high co-relation between the birth and death rates in Goa indicates that the low death rate is one of the main factors affecting the birth rate in the state. There are other factors too: Goa's 0-14 year and 15-34 year population groups are smaller in size than that of the rest of India. But her 60+ age group population is higher. This indicates the high level of outmigration from the region (like in Kerala) and also the phenomenon of Goans returning in old age to settle down back in their home state. (See Saxena, R.N: Goa in the Mainstream, New Delhi, Abhinav 1974). Both Kerala and Goa have strikingly similar female-male ratios, though in recent years this ratio has been on the decline, causing concern in Goa's case. See the discussion above. Obviously, there are two strong trends of migration in Goa. On the one hand, educated or less-educated locals strongly favour out-migration, specially abroad, with the prospect of earning higher incomes. (This has been a trend since colonial times, and is a trend reflect on the Portuguese mainland and also former Portuguese colonies. One explanation for this is that the stagnant economy of Portugal and her colonies meant the people living their acquired education and aspirations, but no jobs.) On the other hand, another trend in Goa is in-migration, caused by major projects and heavy governmental spending, specially those brought about in the 'sixties and 'seventies, in the first phase of building infrastructure and capitalism in what was till then a stagnant colonial backwater. This brings in large numbers of migrants from other parts of India, and migration levels were particularly high in the 'sixties and 'seventies. "... The proportion of 'incomplete' families is high in almost all talukas. The impact of the 'incomplete' families, arising out of the out-migration of adult males on fertility rates could be a major one and deserves to be further studied both in Goa and Kerala," comments Panandikar and Chaudhuri. Goa's low birth rate has other intriguing aspects. This region was still a Portuguese colony till 1961. This means that it was not part of India's family planning programmes for the entire decade of the 1950s. Commenting on the high proportion of never-married women to total females in the 15-44 age group (30% in Goa during the 1971 Census, which was higher than Kerala's 22%), Panandikar and Chaudhuri argue that the large proportion of females among Catholics remaining unmarried throughout their lives, and the age at marriage being hight was not only noticed among Catholics but also among 'educated Hindus'. There was a noticeable preference for "employment and economic independence" as against having a "settled married life" and this continued upto a late age. Panandikar and Chaudhuri saw this as some of the contributing factors to Goa's low birth rates. Like some other commentators, they also noted Goa's better-than-average medical infrastructure, including its higher hospital-beds-per-thousand ratio and doctor-population ratio. They argued that there was a co-relation between the number of doctors per thousand people and the number of births and deaths. (See N. Siddiqui, Health For the Millions, 1997 July-Aug; 23(4):12-5 in 'The Numbers Game: A Demographic Profile of Free India' who argues that "investments in social development" have led to low fertility in Kerala, Goa and Tamil Nadu.) Goa's literacy -- both male and female -- has helped to "considerably reduce" the death rate in the region, while the comparatively higher female literacy rates could be considerably reducing the birth rates, like in Kerala, the researchers felt. Some of "principal socio-economic factors" which Panandikar and Chaudhuri pointed to as contributing to lower fertility included the higher doctor-to-population ratio, low infant mortality (among the lowest in the country, and probably due to Goa's relatively high income levels), "reasonable" literacy, the female participation rate, and a good transport and communication network. There are interesting other readings of this. K Srinivasan (Demography India, 1995 Jul-Dec; 24(2):163-94 in 'Lessons from Goa, Kerala and Tamil Nadu: the three successful fertility transition states in India) points out that Goa is "distinguished" by its Portuguese colonial heritage, its very small size, its higher standard of living before India's independence, and the onset of fertility decline before the introduction of organized official family planning in 1961. "The sociocultural context among this large Catholic population was mostly responsible for the rapid diffusion of the small family norm, increased contraceptive use, and sustained fertility decline after 1968-69," writes Srinivasan. Female literacy was higher than the national average. Even by 1981, female age at marriage was the highest (22.8 years) in the nation. Even illiterate women delayed marriage until 18.3 years, on the average, in 1985. The crude birth rate declined from 32.0 in 1961 to 14.7 in 1993. The crude death rate declined from 13.4 to 6.7 during the same period. Natural family planning methods were widespread. The total fertility rate was 1.90 in 1990-92. It has also been pointed out that infant mortality in the year 2000 was estimated to be 17.02 in Goa and 20.22 in Kerala. A highly significant correlation was found between the infant mortality rate and literacy and the net domestic product in Goa. In Kerala only literacy was statistically significantly related to infant mortality. The population per doctor was found to be significantly positively related to the infant mortality rate in both Goa and Kerala. 82.96% of infant mortality in Goa was explained by the three factors. Kulkarni et al argue that program effort should be directed to improving literacy, economic conditions, and medical doctor coverage as a means of reducing infant mortality.(MS Kulkarni, NR Pinto and AM Ferreira in Indian Journal of Maternal and Child Health, 1995 'Socioeconomic correlates and trends of infant mortality rate in Goa and Kerala'1995 Jul-Sep;6(3):84-6) "Whether Goa can be replicated in other parts of the country deserves to be studied in greater detail," Panandikar and Chaudhuri asked in 1983. It's a question that still is awaiting an answer. (ENDS) -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Frederick Noronha 784 Near Convent, Sonarbhat SALIGAO GOA India Independent Journalist TEL: +91-832-2409490 MOBILE: 9822122436 http://fn.swiki.net http://www.livejournal.com/users/goalinks fred at bytesforall.org http://www.bytesforall.net
