--- Mario Goveia <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> There are SEVERAL scientists who believe that > whatever > global warming is taking place cannot be blamed on > human activity. Other scientists report opposing > research findings. Nature Magazine recently > reported > one scientific study that Europe was facing a mini > ice > age over the next hundred years, while another > article > warned that Europe was going to warm over the next > hundred years. This should amuse everyone who is > not > a scientist looking for grant money from gullible > donors to do more research on the subject. --- Mario, The Nature article you quote says that there may be some parts of Europe that may get cooler due to the overall global warming effect. Specifically, global warming may change some ocean flow patterns in around parts of Europe, thus affecting these local regions in the opposite way. It does not in any way refute the general conclusions about global warming and if anything, it higlights that there may be unpredictable consequences of climate change. Local cooling effects should not be confused with global warming effects. The current state of the art in weather climate prediction does not have the resolution to make affirmative conlclusions on what may happen within specific local regions, thus leading to disagreements about specific regional changes - just as todays regular weather reports cannot provide exact wind, temperature and solar conditions any specific square inch of land I may be standing on at any particular time of the day. Scientists may reach different conclusions on local effects, but the global or overall average effects are not in disagreement. Next, about the issue of several scientists who deny global warming: The issue that must be looked at here is the "reputation" of the scientists for and against global warming. The reputation of a scientist is primarily the result of his or her publications in the appropriate referred journals and as importantly, the number of citations his papers receives from the scientific community. There is no ambiguity in this reputation metric. When one looks at this metric, it is clear that almost all reputable scientists accept that global warming is real and is correlated to green house emissions. Many in the present US administration have stacked the cards in congressional panel discussions, by giving the allusion that there are significant diagreements in the global warming debate by bringing on board individuals who do not have quality publications or the necessary level of citations. > There is no common sense or scientific sense > whatsoever in the claim that the percentage of a > gas, > CO2, that is only 0.036% of the Earth's atmosphere > can > be appreciably increased or reduced by destroying > the > economies of the west while exempting the two > fastest > growing economies of India and China, both of whom > have no environmental controls to speak of. --- This issue has already been discussed. 0.036% is significant. CO2 has a large multiplier effect in impacting the heat loss mechanisms to outer space. Though not accurate in mechanism, think of the thin reflective coatings on windows in buildings. These coatings may be as thin as 0.01% of the thickness of the underlying glass, but they can reduce heat transmission by 20-50%. In terms of the changes in heat dyanmics of the earth, the net change is closer to a few percent - which is much smaller than the impact of the thin coating of glass. Finally, WRT India and China, again, the point is that on a per capita basis, the US pollutes 5-10x more than China and India. Hence the issue of China and India being given preferential treatment is false. In fact, the Kyoto treaty called for the phasing in of regulations for these two nations as they developed and began to achieve emission rates similar to that of the US. If anything, one of the reasons many of China's products are so price competitive is that besides low cost labor, many of their spanking new, mass scale factories have incorporated the latest energy efficient technologies that have enabled them to out compete even lower labor cost competitiors in Vietnam, India etc. Marlon -------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Goa - 2005 Santosh Trophy Champions | | | | Support Soccer Activities at the grassroots in our villages | | Vacationing in Goa this year-end - Carry and distribute Soccer Balls | --------------------------------------------------------------------------
