http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2006/03/12/news/top_stories/22_17_483_11_06. txt
UCSD professor disputes need for new airport By: DAVE DOWNEY - Staff Writer SAN DIEGO ---- Lindbergh Field's lone runway is enough to handle San Diego County's air travel demand long into the future, contends a UC San Diego economics professor, who has taken issue with forecasts a regional agency is using to build a case for a new or expanded airport. Professor Richard Carson said the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority's projections are inflated because they rely on faulty economic assumptions, such as that fares will gradually decline and that people will fly more often as their incomes rise. Carson conducted an independent analysis of the need for a new international airport and presented his conclusions to an advisory airport panel March 2. Seth Young, a business professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Fla., who was hired by the authority to review Carson's forecast, said the UCSD professor may be correct in assuming residents won't fly more as they earn more. However, Young said that doesn't matter much because airlines likely will introduce flights to many new markets, which will spur air traffic growth well beyond what will be generated locally by San Diego County residents' travel habits. As for the notion fares will continue to decline, he said that will happen. The authority maintains Carson's projections are weighted too heavily on economics and not enough on aviation trends. The authority insists its projections are sound. Those show that 661-acre Lindbergh, one of the nation's smallest metropolitan airports, is quickly running out of room to handle the aviation needs of a metropolis where the population is expected to reach 4 million by 2030. By that year, the authority predicts, the number of travelers passing through Lindbergh's gates will hit 25.8 million to 32.6 million. Using his different assumptions, Carson predicts the 2030 passenger total will be 24.2 million.>> Comments On This Story Add A Comment Note: Comments reflect the views of readers and not necessarily those of the North County Times or its staff. Rocky wrote on March 13, 2006 8:46 AM:"Is it true the marines have golf courses and shopping centers and nice living quarters and all the find amenities at Miramar? I wouldn't want to give that up either. How dare that someone would even think of such a thing. Prof. you may have to go and stand in the corner. However, you won't stand alone.">> ----------------------- Is this not comparable to the Dabolim/Mopa airport situation in Goa? What can we carry from it? Hope to get a reaction or two. Cheers.
