Not too long ago, Qatar and Saudi Arabia were inseparable friends. Qatar was comfortably rich, pumping out about 300 bpd and moderately rising to present levels, the population was low and thus per capita and state income was enough to keep the local citizenry, the expats, the Al-Thanis and the Government budget wanting for nothing. The pie was disproportionate in its distribution, but everybody knew their place and nobody made trouble.
There were minor irritants of course. The Hawara islands dispute with Bahrain, with Saudi Arabia taking Bahrain's side and the ruling families of the UAE and Qatar witnessing animosity due to intermarriage and exile haven problems with a Qatari Emir deposed by his own son. Two GCC countries Kuwait and Oman have no borders and therefore never had any issues with Qatar. They are the mediators in today's crisis. Then came a blessing on Qatar that was to change its future and its direction forever. It found proven reserves that were soon to be recognized as the second biggest fields in the world. Along with it came a couple of ruling family women who were visionary and offered their steady hands to the course the country was taking. The friendship with Saudi Arabia remained unperturbed. It would have continued so, had Qatar not developed some ambitions of its own combined with the tremendous economic clout that fuelled those ambitions. Then came the Gulf war and its successive turmoil in the early 1990s. It emphasized the vulnerability of not only the smaller Gulf countries but also of big brother Saudi Arabia. They ran to the USA for cover, offering them bases, interests and compliance with whatever the US was offering. They didn't stop to consider other alternatives. It was like lambs running to the lions den. The Middle East was changing fast. Israel was happy with the Gulf countries now dancing to America's tune. They had after all learnt this dance themselves a long time ago. But they were unhappy with the strongmen in place. Till they continued in Egypt, Libya and Syria with Morocco and Tunisia thrown in for good measure, their watchfulness over Iran would have many distractions. Qatar meanwhile was growing up and how. Although they maintained their public dependence on the United States, they were concerned with its profligate ways and the way it had conducted policy towards the Arab Spring. It came to the conclusion that it was under no threat from anyone except Iran, but it also knew that unlike the US specially under Trump, Iran would never act unprovoked and Qatar had no intention of provoking it. On the contrary, why not make friends with someone whom Saudi Arabia and not they had deadly enmity. Qatar meanwhile was completely turning around its ship of foreign affairs. It saw injustice with the ordinary people of the Arab Spring that were paying the price of the upheaval the Americans had engineered. They had money to spare and they decided to channelize it for their betterment. The money they shoveled into the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah and the rebels fighting Assad, they knew would get them cries of funding terrorists, but these organizations were helping their suffering people in ways their governments would not bother to undertake. Yes, they used some of it to buy arms but most of it went to food and shelter for people for whom there were just no jobs. Meanwhile Qatar was making a name for itself on the world map. The bribing for the World Cup was a fiasco but it was a lesson for the future. Qatar was becoming a beacon of higher education with its alliances with world famous colleges. With a click of the fingers unschooled Arabs were learning to take their place on the bridge. Unlike Saudi Arabia which was overspending on buying planes and arms to satisfy the Americans and overcompensate for their own insecurities, or the UAE which was splurging on unproductive real waste, Qatar was bolstering its Sovereign Fund and investing in select industries both inside and overseas that would one day count them in the developed world. Saudi was watching all this with a falcon's eye and was not happy with it. The USA under Trump was having concerns too. Qatar was looking to other currencies and making some large trades under the radar. It was sending feelers to Europe and Russia with a view to decrease their dependence on the US and this was not playing out well with Uncle Sam. The straw that probably broke the camels back was Qatar's increasing overtures to Iran. These were returned with as much enthusiasm as they were received. This was not tradition but it could be a breaking of the old order. Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US decided the time must come to act. Israel would be happy to see turmoil in its neighbourhood. The US would stave off an impending financial collapse if other countries followed Qatar and Saudi Arabia would once again assert its hegemony. Qatar was not too off the mark when it protested the "guardianship" attempt of big brother. Whether a fire gets lit in the Gulf or not, time will tell. Roland Francis The opinion is solely of the writer and no one else.
