Stephen Bryen October 3, 2021 Updated: October 3, 2021biggersmaller Print
A New Way to Defend Taiwan (theepochtimes.com)
Commentary
Among military strategists, there is debate about whether American aircraft
carriers, generally thought to be critical for the relief of Taiwan, are
vulnerable today to Chinese missiles and could be destroyed from long
distances—perhaps as far as 1,000 miles or more.
In the carrier killer category is the Dong Feng (East Wind) DF-21D, a two stage
solid fuel anti-ship missile with a range of 900 miles or more. This ship can
be guided to its target by satellites and by drones. It is said to have a
maneuverable reentry vehicle (warhead) making it difficult to defeat.
China is preparing on the one hand and watching the United States on the other.
It isn’t clear at what point, using what strategies, China would reach the
conclusion it could successfully attack U.S. aircraft carriers. Unfortunately,
the same is true on the American side: it isn’t clear that the United States
could stop a Chinese anti-carrier missile attack and we won’t really know until
it happens.
But even if the carriers could get through, the Chinese Air Force is far more
capable than it was 25 years ago. China is working to improve its stealth
capabilities and match the American F-22 even more than the F-35, which is more
of a tactical aircraft and is less stealthy than the F-22.
Much depends on the courage, political and moral, of the president. But the
instinct in Washington would likely be an urgent attempt to push Taiwan into a
negotiation with China that would end with Taiwan becoming Chinese. In effect,
surrendering. That would get the United States off the hook but would be a dire
warning to our friends in Asia that the sky was indeed falling and there was no
hope or help to be had from the Americans.
Unless another formula is found.
Appeasement will, in the end lead to world war; it is impossible to believe
that China would be satisfied just swallowing Taiwan. It should not be
forgotten that China has an insatiable anger about Japan and what Japanese
forces did to China in the 1930’s and 1940’s—the millions who were slaughtered,
and the use of germ and chemical warfare by Japan against civilians, mainly
Chinese.
Once China has chased away the Americans, Japan is the next target and the
Japanese know it, that is why Japan calls a possible invasion of Taiwan an
“existential threat.”
Allies in the Pacific can prevent this only with an entirely new strategy to
deter China from attacking Taiwan. Instead of relying on far off carriers and
waiting for the Chinese to create an incident or provocation to trigger a
conflict, we need to take steps to change the game now by reinforcing Taiwan.
The best and fastest way would be to create a single Taiwan Military Command
that includes Japan, the United States, and Taiwan. There is no coordination
command mechanism today with Taiwan or Japan. The current American approach—to
do it ourselves—is not viable. Japan has F-35s and F-15s, a small but good
navy, and excellent submarines. Taiwan has modernized F-16’s and CK-F-1 home
built fighters.
A single command structure would let China know it has a significantly larger
problem on its hands than just Taiwan, and that the United States and Japan and
Taiwan have access and support from multiple bases on Taiwan, on Okinawa, and
in Japan. With that sort of challenge, China cannot hope to isolate Taiwan and
frighten away the Americans.
With a multi-base and support system to confront China and a common command,
China’s strategy crumbles.
The Pentagon should run new simulations with a single military command and
multiple bases mutually supporting the effort to block a Chinese invasion of
Taiwan. Given the potential game-changing nature suggested here, China would
understand that it is contained, much as NATO successfully contained the USSR
from 1949 until its collapse in 1991.
The current administration needs to turn around its policy approach of global
retreat and appeasement, which will ultimately lead to war, and adopt a new
strategy to deal with China before it is too late
Dr. Stephen Bryen is regarded as a thought leader on technology security
policy, twice being awarded the Defense Department’s highest civilian honor,
the Distinguished Public Service Medal. His most recent book is “Technology
Security and National Power: Winners and Losers.”
