From the Washington Post an informative article; Russia is under unprecedented economic pressure after invading Ukraine. Many in the West feel vindicated, even happy that the financial might of the United States, Europe and other allies is being fully used against Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies after years of half measures and looking the other way. But some experts and analysts aren’t feeling triumphant. Instead, they’re worried. Worried that these sanctions will have collateral damage in Russia and beyond, potentially even hurting the very countries that impose them. Some even worried that the sanctions intended to deter and weaken Putin could end up emboldening and strengthening him. Story continues below advertisement “I’m concerned about the scale of this economic warfare,” Nick Mulder, a historian at Princeton and the author of “The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War” told me in an email. “Economic measures to punish Russian aggression and to support Ukrainian defense are absolutely necessary. But Western governments should be very careful about which sanctions they impose next.” He isn’t the only one concerned. One former Obama administration official that worked on sanctions, who agreed to talk on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly, said the scale of the restrictions on Russia has been so huge and unprecedented — so its knock-on impact could be huge and unprecedented, too. The former official noted thatRussia’s central bank, which had its assets frozen by the United States in a Rubicon-crossing move, had more assets than the entire economic output of Iran. Story continues below advertisement “It’s not apples and oranges,” the former official said. “It’s apples and elephants.” Here are some of the concerns about sanctions I heard when speaking to experts over the past week: Sanctions could hurt Russian civilians. The West has sanctioned Russian banks and oligarchs, aiming to hit the Russian leadership and its allies. But those likely to face crippling impacts could be ordinary Russian citizens, far outside the halls of Kremlin power, many of whom have shown little support for Putin’s war in Ukraine — if not outright opposition. The ruble plunged this week, losing almost 30 percent Monday, while Russia’s central bank raised its key interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent. As The Post’s Robyn Dixon reported from Moscow, the move led Russians to crowd around ATMs in a desperate bid to withdraw their cash. Story continues below advertisement Inflation is expected to rise significantly in Russia, with unpredictable effects. Andrey Sizov, head of Russia-based consultancy SovEcon, said he expected food prices to go from 1 percent increases month over month to as much as 6 percent given the combination of economic pressure and the war itself, which disrupts some of Europe’s most important agricultural trade. “Ninety-nine percent of the Russian people have no influence on Kremlin policy. I’m not keen on making life more miserable for ordinary Russians, which these sanctions will do,” said Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Sanctions could drive elites closer to Putin. Western governments have taken aim at Russian oligarchs and the broader elite in a way never been done before, effectively cutting them out of the United States and Europe. But how will the elite react? And how much power do they have anyway? Story continues below advertisement As Max Seddon of the Financial Times wrote this week, the power dynamic is important. It’s Putin who has the power over the oligarchs, not the other way around. And by limiting their exposure to the West, many will have no choice but to edge closer to their leader. “Being on the US sanctions list used to be a status symbol of patriotism. But now it’s a requirement. If you’re not on it, it’s suspicious,” one anonymous state banker told the FT. The former Obama administration official told me that there was little sign that sanctions drove Russian elites away from Putin in the past. Significant sanctions were placed on Russian oligarchs afterRussia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, but none distanced themselves from Putin — in some cases, such as the billionaire businessman Arkady Rotenberg, they appeared to get closer. Sanctions can escalate, rather than de-escalate, conflicts. The threat of sanctions is meant to deter a conflict before it happens. But clearly, Russia was not deterred. So what’s the plan now? Story continues below advertisement Sanctions could be lifted if Russia pulls back or some form of peace agreement is reached. But that may be easier said than done. Sanctions are sticky and when in place, they can be harder than expected to remove. The number of U.S. sanctions designations has grown substantially year on year since 2000. The domestic political pressure to keep sanctions on Russia will be strong in the West because of the widespread anger at Russia. Already, sanctions have gone far beyond the scope of the Russian invasion, hitting oligarchs with no direct link to the aggression against Ukraine. “My concern is that we’ve entered the policy space where we move away from its active policies and more toward cathartic policy,” the former Obama administration official said. Story continues below advertisement Historians have said that the impact of sanctions has often escalated tensions rather than solve them, even playing a role in two devastating world wars. So far, Putin’s response to the severe economic pain has been to double down on the conflict in Ukraine and make overt nuclear threats to the West. “The more powerful sanctions are, the more likely that countries will seek to respond in whatever way they can to defend themselves against what it believes, quite plausibly, to be an existential threat,” said Henry Farrell, a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins. These sanctions could end up hurting the West, too. As my colleague Rick Noack writes from Paris, many in Europe are already steeling themselves for the knock-on impact of European Union sanctions on Russia, including higher gas, electricity and food prices. “This major crisis will have consequences on our lives, our economy,” French President Emmanuel Macron said last week. Story continues below advertisement Europe, which gets much of its energy in the form of natural gas from Russia, is more exposed than the United States. But in a global economy, everyone is affected. Margarita Balmaceda, a professor of diplomacy and international relations at Seton Hall University, noted that President Biden had promised to get inflation under control in his Tuesday State of the Union address. “That’s going to be hard to get inflation under control with this situation in the oil market,” Balmaceda said. Crude oil prices surged nearly 8 percent after Russia invaded Ukraine and they are currently well over $100 a barrel. Balmaceda noted that Thursday’s announcement on sanctions on Belarus, long reliant on oil-refining to fund its economy, could have further repercussions. In the longer term, the impact is hard to predict. One reason Western sanctions are so effective is that much of the global financial system is based around dollars, including the petrodollars that prop up the Russian state, as well as networks like the Belgium-based SWIFT messaging system. For years, people have worried that countries like Russia and China would try to break away from this system. Certainly, the sanctions on Russia will only compel them further. Story continues below advertisement Artyom Lukin, a professor at the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia, said it was far too early to say what the impact of sanctions would be on Russia. It was already clear they would be “extremely painful” in the short term, he said, but he wasn’t sure if they would be disastrous or, worse, fatal. “Perhaps the only thing that is certain to me is that in the wake of the sanctions Russia’s geoeconomic dependence on China will grow substantially,” Lukin wrote in an email, adding that If Russia remains “heavily sanctioned for a long time to come, it could become like Iran or maybe even like North Korea” — in that it is totally reliant on Beijing.
Roland Francis 416-453-3371
