------------------------------------------------------------------------ * GOANET **** C * O * M * M * U * N * I * T * Y **** E * V * E * N * T * ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Xavier Center of Historical Research presents HISTORY HOUR TOPIC: Waste Wise - An Interactive Awareness Presentation on Waste Management in Goa
SPEAKER: Clinton Vaz - November 16, 2007 - 5:30pm VISIT: http://tinyurl.com/222757 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Date: Tue, 13 Nov 2007 11:37:15 -0800 (PST) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Mario, I do believe your absence from Goanet has done us all good. > Mario responds: > Unfortunately, my absence has also enabled some to post erroneous information unchallenged. > Mervyn wote: > The first link to numbers you provided below is not directly from a Govt department. I guess you, like others here, do not trust US govt info anymore? http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx > Mario responds: > I see you have decided to defend the indefensible, without providing us with the source of YOUR unrecognizable US inflation rate of 5.1%. > To begin with, contrary to your snide insinuation, I do trust such US government information which is produced by professionals with no political axe to grind. > What difference does it make if I use official US government information directly or indirectly? > If you had done even a little research you would have found that the source I used did in fact used the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Statistics as their source, as can be seen by comparing their chart of Consumer Price Indices with the one in the following US government URL: > ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt > Mervyn writes: > It is always interesting to read what official govt policy is. Some people go along happily with what their president/govt tells them. These people are usually the ones that pay for the mistakes of politicians. Others, who can monitor the effects of govt policy, stand to profit from the same mistakes. Let me give you an example. At every chance he gets, the US Sec of Treasury stands up and says that the US has an official "strong dollar" policy. Everyone who lives outside the US and who deals with US dollars knows that the US dollar is getting weaker by the day. There is money to be made with this info. > Mario responds: > In addition to government policies, I also find it interesting to read the various opinions about such policies by disparate individuals, each from their own bias and point of view. > However, while everyone is entitled to their own opinions, they are not entitled to their own facts. > None of your commentary above has anything to do with the unrecognizable inflation rate you published or what the US includes or excludes in calculating inflation rates. Most investors make and lose money no matter what happens in any economy. Most will never brag about investments where they lose money. > Mervyn wrote: > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index > If you do not have the time to read the entire page, I understand. However, let me know your thoughts after you read the following excerpt from the link. > "The core CPI index excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile and non-systemic. More specifically, food and energy prices are widely thought to be subject to large changes that often fail to persist and do not represent relative price changes. In many instances, large movements in food and energy prices arise because of supply disruptions such as drought or OPEC-led cutbacks in production." > Mario responds: > After remarking somewhat critically that I had not used official US government information directly, which I had used indirectly through an independent inflation-monitoring website, you are now curiously referring me to an unofficial free-for-all website called Wikipedia where one has to be very careful of the information since individuals are allowed to edit much of the content and may bring their personal biases to what they write. > So, let me get back to safer ground by using the official US government statistical information since the entire financial world uses this as their primary reference on information about the US, other than those who confuse US government statistics with US government policy or pronouncements by US politicians that they may agree or disagree with. > There are many uses for the information that the US government produces, some you may be unfamiliar with. For example, Consumer Price Indices and their growth rates are published with several different adjustments made for various purposes. > I refer you to the official US Department of Labor, Bureau of Statistics website, which most unbiased observers may agree is far more credible than Wikipedia: > http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#data > On the upper right hand you will see a box which shows several versions of CPI growth rates. The first one is CPI-U, All items, at 2.8% from September 2006 to September 2007. The second one is the number for All Items Less Food and Energy, at 2.1%. > Hence, contrary to your previous assertions the US government publishes these statistics in various forms, some using all prices, some with certain prices excluded. You only seem to know about the version that excludes food and energy prices. > I still haven't seen anything approaching the 5.1% that you cited. > Mervyn wrote: > Non-US financial institutions lending money to US businesses are using a 5.1% inflation rate to see if projects are viable. These are the institutions that do not have a financial crises on their hands today. > Mario responds: > So, this where the 5.1% figure comes from - some non-US financial institutions that lend money to US businesses. > However, this is obviously not an inflation rate, but a hurdle rate for investments. Lenders can use any hurdle rate they want to, to reflect the risk that they perceive in making the investment. A hurdle rate is always higher than the inflation rate to adjust for perceived risk. > Mario > "A communist is someone who reads Marx. An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx." - paraphrasing Ronald Reagan. >