Goa at crossroads By Dr. M P Wagle and Dr. P S Kinnerkar NT Panorama - March 30, 2008
Goa is the most advanced state in the country. This is reflected in its advancement score of 445 per cent, the highest recorded. Even Delhi lags behind Goa with a score of 353.4 per cent. Among the districts/cities only Mumbai with a score of 515.4 per cent surpasses Goa. This may be one of the reasons why Goa continues to attract a continuous stream of domestic and foreign tourists. During 2006, while he former crossed a figure of two million the latter crossed 339 lakh (government of Goa: Economic Survey: 2006-07; P 161). However, Goa is not free of problems. Problems have been around since the time Goa got liberated in 1961 with newer ones being added every year. The condition of the state is fast deteriorate ing as is reflected in its overcrowded buses, poor and ever depleting seashore, which is occupied by illegal encroachers, and poor waste management. The presence of the government in every sphere of life has gradually increased since independence thereby leaving the state at the mercy of political bigwigs. Instead of serving the cause of people the political leadership is busy manipulating the system to its advantage. The frequent changes in government clearly manifest the undercurrents. Political turmoil, uncontrolled executive branch of the government and defunct legislature, unprecedented government intervention in every walk of life, free or highly subsidized economic services like health, education, transport , etc, continue to play havoc with this erstwhile Portuguese colony. Consequently, the state has been gradually losing its pivotal position as the most sought after tourist destination to other states like Himachal Pradesh, Uttranchal and Kerala. Besides frequent elections the most blatant problem Goa faces is its ever-increasing public debt, leading to mounting pressures of repayment and interest. While public debt increased from Rs. 1011 crores in 1998-99 to Rs 3087 crores by 2004-05 (Table 1), interest burden on the exchequer and thus the interest increased from Rs. 144 crores to Rs. 383 crores (2005-06) during the corresponding period (Table 1) No government till date has been serious about reducing the loans. Had government after government been more prudent and conscious in creating loans in the name of development, the state would have benefited immensely. Interest saved thereof strengthens current investment thereby accelerating development. The problem of repayment of loans would be minimum. For the majority of the countries, historically, government investments, subsidies and unrestrained lifestyle of people at the helm of political affairs have proved to be the greatest threat to the economic stability and prosperity. Several great countries including that of Russia collapsed for similar reasons. India had to transfer 67 tonnes of gold to London to obtain foreign exchange to pay for imports in 1991 owing to drain on foreign exchange resulting from implied subsidy on imports and hidden tax on exports inherent in the fixed exchange rate regime. In such a background of dismal performance by most countries of the world, the United States of America shines as the only super economic power, owing to minimum government investment, ownership and subsidy. Obviously, the USA recorded per capita income of $3,800 by wide margin (World Bank, 'World Development Report, 2008 ') If the state wishes to improve its lifestyle it should take a clue from the USA. The government of Goa should gradually withdraw subsidies and reduce its own investment and financial support to private investment. In respect to both revenue and capital expenditure as per cent of state income (GSDP), Goa occupies one of the top positions among the states of the country (Economic survey, Ibid, p 231). Implied economic mismanagement needs to be overcome immediately. The government should withdraw all popular schemes including free computers to students. All the loss making state undertakings may be closed down and their staff absorbed in general administration. Yet another problem is the ever-increasing migrant population, which is estimated to have risen to 2.43 lakhs accounting for about 18 per cent of the state's population in 2001 (derived from the Census figures). Consequently, not only has the quality of life deteriorated, but the same also exerts greater pressures on the exchequer. Unless checked the unprecedented flow of migrants will increase further. Similarly, the rapidly falling sex ration (females per 1000 males) should be considered a most serious threat to the social fabric of Goa (table 2). The problem is very serious. The Census of 2001 identified several causes for this fall. The major among them include: neglect of the girl child resulting in their higher mortality at younger ages, higher maternal mortality, sex selective abortions and female infanticides (Government of India , 'Census of India, Series I, India, 2001, p 91). Of these, sex selective abortion appears to be the most dominant cause for the fall in the sex ratio since the beginning of 1990s in the entire country. In the case of Goa, the fall was much more severe. While the fall in the sex ratio in the population aged seven and above, as reflected in the Censuses of 1991 and 2001, was marginal, from 967 to 964 respectively, the ratio in the age group 0-6 slipped faster from 964 to 933. Such an unprecedented fall may be attributed to the widespread abortion of female fetus owing to the availability of sex determination facilities, higher ratio of doctors per thousand population, high per capita income which means that there is the capacity to pay for the high cost of abortion, etc. Unless timely action is taken the problem will quickly degenerate into a catastrophe. Unless the government takes stringent steps against the culprits in the medical fraternity and prevails on the Goa Medical Association to be strict with its members the state is likely to face acute social problems like insecurity of woman and prostitution. Simultaneously, the government should give a monthly dole of Rs. 500 per female child born to a local couple till the child is six and Rs. 25,000 at the time of her first marriage. This will help arrest the declining sex ration. In addition, migration needs to be controlled as its affects the sex ratio. Male domination among migrants results from slow adjustment of females to new environments, high cost of housing, difficulties of finding accommodation in new places and safety challenges faced by women. Thus, the government should slow down investment creating more job opportunities and withdrawing free services including medical services to migrant population. Goa is at the crossroads. Expectations of high standards of living far beyond means and countervailing unrestrained political power vitiating objective thinking will continue to create problems while searching for practical and rational solutions to these complex problems. Moreover, wasted interests nurtured on government money will seldom allow their power of manipulation to decline. In such a scenario, arresting the deteriorating quality of life will be an extremely difficult task. A day has come for serious introspection. Table 1 [Public Debt and Interest - 1998-99 to2005-06 (Rs. Crores] 1998-99 1,011 144 1999-00 1,198 178 2000-01 1,490 212 2001-02 1,826 256 2002-03 2,141 292 2003-04 2,615 321 2004-05 3,087 323 2005-06 N.A. 383 Table 2 [Sex Ratio of Goa -1990-2001] [Females per 1000 males] Year Sex ratio 1900 1,091 1910 1,108 1921 1,120 1931 1,088 1940 1,084 1950 1,128 1960 1,066 1971 981 1981 975 1991 967 2001 961 Comments: The first question we would like to ask you who have clicked on this post is that 'Have you gone through it entirely? Because if you haven't and are just reading the comments, you are making a big mistake. The above article crudely displays what Goa's politics is all about and the tables must send shivers down the spine of conscientious and concerned Goans. After going through this article, do you think that electing Digamber Kamats, Babush Monserrates, Vishwajeet Ranes, Babu Usgaonkars, Agnelo Fernandes', Manohar Parrikars, Ravi Naiks, Davlikars, Madkaikars and above all Dayanand Narvekars will help reduce the debt trap as displayed in table no. 1?? Just look at the loan waivers that our finance minister has unleashed on the exchequer in his recent budget. Even the pompous Manohar Parrikar's regime heavily added to the debt trap and interest burden. At this moment we do remember the days of the President's rule in Goa during Lt. Governor Jacob who had successfully reduced some of the loan burden on the state in just 6 months. To implement what Dr. Kinnerkar and Dr. Wagle suggest, Goa needs a majority rule which does not include either the Congress/NCP combine nor the BJP/MGP love/hate cycle. We need a all regional third front with a common minimum program which will have the stomach to implement the above bitter prescriptions and not look at vote-bank politics. One term of austerity measures is enough to purge everyone from politicians to the basic voters and bring back some sense in governance in this totally mismanaged state. This choice lies with the middle class people who are the most sensible voters of Goa to bring about the much needed change to lift Goa from the doom that is obvious and as brilliantly displayed in the above article. We must inform our readers that this particular article was handed over to the NT a year and a half ago but was collecting dust in the corner racks of the editor's office. Since Dr. Kinnerkar is a friend of goasuraj, Dr. N.S. Dumo, president, saw to it that this article reached more sympathetic hands in the NT to have it published. Thro' this article, one will get the idea that goasuraj has wide circle of intelligent friends who can and do guide the party in its task of bringing awareness to the dormant people of Goa that unless and until the decaying roots of the crumbling tree of Goa's useless governance are dug out, the tree uprooted and replaced by a new graft sapling of a productive and self-sacrificing system of governance, nurturing it for a speedy growth to maturity with the widely available quality guidance from professionals who know what is what, Goa is doomed. More so in the most immediate future. Goans cannot afford anymore to leave the affairs of weakened Goa in the hands of CHARLATANS posing as Goa's future politicians. floriano goasuraj www.goasu-raj.org ----------------------------------------------------------------- GOA needs a 'REVOLUTION' if it is to see better days. Goasuraj is that revolution. Support it. Website: www.goasu-raj.org
