Vivian A. DSouza wrote:
> There does not seem to be any rhyme or reason to the current exchange rate
>between the USA and India.
> The Indian economy, while suffering the effects of the worldwide recession
>is still in good shape. I cannot
> imagine the rupee sinking much further. I will stash some funds in rupees
>while the dollar is strong as a
> hedge against the dollar sinking, which is inevitable.
Bwana D'Souza,
My question was: I would be interested in the opinion of anyone resident in
India on where they think the rupee will
go, versus the dollar." While your reply is a practical one, those who have to
trade currencies to hedge their profits
have set criteria on estimating where the currency is heading.
For example, if you pull up any technical chart of the Canadian v/s the US
dollar, you would see a band in which the
currencies trade. From this technical info, most can see if a currency is over
bought or over sold. The experienced
currency trader has one trick up his sleeve though. S/he monitors data supplied
by Statistics Canada. If a key report
is due out on the 3rd of March, and every economic indicator points out to
terrible news, the experienced trader will
place his bets on the expectation that the current bands or trading ranges,
will collapse. This was the gist of my
original question.
> As for the US Economy and the US Treasury collapsing, this is wishful
>thinking on Merwyn's part.
The US GDP is currently contracting at an annual rate of 6.2%.
This number is given to us by the US govt.
Just yesterday, a US insurance company, AIG, claimed it lost 60 BILLION dollars
last quarter .i.e it
lost one BILLION dollars per day, for every day it was open in the last three
months. A BILLION DOLLAR
LOSS PER DAY! The socialist govt of the US said, don't worry folks, we will
use US taxpayers money
to pay for the losses (and retain the same management at AIG). To get the
taxpayer money, I guess
the Govt will have to increase taxes on those who have lost their jobs or go
the easier route and just
print more money.
> After hitching their hopes to a strong American economy, the world including
> Canada, will have no one
> else to turn to. The Chinese, despite their current surfeit of dollars, have
> their own problems as their
> factories become idle with slackening world demand, and a growing
> unemployment.
No doubt about this one.
Given the state of the US consumer, the rest of the world is heading towards an
economic coma.
> I predict that India will slowly but surely grow into an Economic powerhouse,
> with its brains, its entrepreneurial
> spirit and relatively younger population. Some folks know that and are trying
> to derail India with terror attacks,
> but India will overcome these pinpricks and emerge stronger.
I have the same sentiments as you, but for different reasons.
Indians, and by Indians I mean the entire sub-continent, have an obsession with
saving. If local entrepreneurs
have access to this savings, the region will flourish. Indian financial
institutions that sent these savings to the
international markets have paid dearly for the experiment.
Mervyn1650Lobo
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