The elections to the 15th Lok Sabha will be the first after the delimitation of constituencies. The seats remain the same 543 (besides two by nomination ). In Goa pre-delimitation the Panaji and Mormugao Parliamentary constituency had 19 & 21 assembly constituencies. Post delimitation there are 20 each. The total electorate is 1020794 ie 486983 in the PPC and 533811 in MPC.
The Dhargalim, Poinguinim Loutolim seats will stand merged/recarved into Pernem Canacona and Nuvem. Similarly Sanquelim Porvorim and Dabolim will be the newly carved constituencies. Priol in Ponda Taluka will now go to the North. Besides that there are minor shifts in villages from one constituency to the other keeping geographic contiguity and demographic changes in view. This means the future prospects of the present incumbents at the next husting will be reviewed. In our electoral process there is no specification of a minimum % of votes to be polled by the winner. It is “first past the post” therefore even if voters en masse decide to stay away from voting it would not matter. The few who vote can decide the winner. There are therefore sometimes more than 64 candidates for a single seat ( which is the maximum an EVM electronic voting machine can record and then beyond that resort to ballot paper) . In this scenario the sum total of votes polled by those that have lost including those that have lost their deposits are far more than the votes polled by the winner. Can such winner really be called the “Representative of the people”? Had the figure been say a minimum 45% of votes polled to register a victory, at least initially and then move up to 50% in coming years there would be more seriousness both at the Organisational level of the party and the aspiring candidates including Independents in the fray. The "fly by night" candidates or party hoppers sans ideals and principles could be a thing of the past. But despite tall talk of cleansing the electoral process to make it more “representative of the people” we are left with the situation as in 1952. In the absence of any ---- compulsion ------ for the voter (relaxing it for the disabled and senior citizens) to exercise his vote; or when emotive issues cannot be flaunted to enthuse the worker, a) money power, b) a well “oiled” booth management committee, (there are 679 and 600 polling booths north & south Goa with an average of a 1000 odd per booth ) c) dedication of the elected representatives, in power at the village/zilla panchayat , municipal/Corporation and the State Legislative Assembly and d) organizational support of the cadres of the respective parties can boost the prospects of their candidate for the Parliamentary elections. Even with a measly provision of rupees five thousand per booth required to "enthuse" the boys to drag voters to the booth an astronomical sum of around Rs.50 lacs would be needed on polling day alone. The present maxim of elections is "put in money and reap the fruits for the next five years" In the present 5 phase election as of now neither the Indian National Congress (INC) nor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can expect to cross the half way mark 272 on their own. Therefore a coaliton of like minded parties arrived at on a common minimum program is obvious. Manifestos have long lost their sanctity. The electorate is clear “zero tolerance” to terrorism and communalism. These have been the bane of our propects for progress. There can be no lax on our economic front in the present global scenario and era of recession. Thus whichever combine can address itself to these issues and catapult the country to the highest position in the comity of nations will be returned to power . At the same time our federal structure demands that regional aspirations cannot be ignored much less brushed aside. This because the national parties themselves have contributed to this pathetic scenario due to their numbers. Development sans a human touch has only helped create an yawning divide between the rich and the poor no matter what the statistics portray. Today there are voters who do not earn even a dollar a day yet they vote in the fond hope to aspire for a better tomorrow. The electorate has thus far witnessed the performance of the two coalitions the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the United Progressive Alliance UPA. It has also before it the two Prime Ministerial candidates put up by the two national parties the INC and the BJP viz; the present incumbent Dr Manmohan Singh and Shri L. K. Advani Leader of the Opposition in the 14th Lok Sabha which hopefully could lead the new permutation and combinations after the results are declared on or after 16th May, 2009. Therefore the choice ought to be easy. The present strength of the Goa Legislative Assembly is 40 seats. The Indian National Congress 18 Nationalist Congress Party 3 Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party 2 United Goans Democratic Party 1 Independent 2 on the Treasury benches . In the Opposition BJP has 14 In Goa both sitting MP’s now back in the race viz; the BJP's Shri Shripad Y Naik in the Panaji Parliamentary Constituency and the INC's Mr. Francisco Sardinha in the Mormugao Parliamentary Constituency are those elected at the time when their respective combines viz the BJP led coalition and now the INC led coalition were/are on the treasury benches in the State i.e in 2004/2007 respectively. But now that the BJP combine is in Opposition in the State and at the Centre it is obvious that the INC ruling combine would work to unseat Shri Shripad Y Naik and try out their own candidate for the Panaji Parliamentary Constituency Shri Jeetendra Deshprabhu a staunch INC partyman but now compelled to quit the INC and don the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) mantle, owing to political compulsions albeit of a coalition era (since 1996) . They also need to strive hard to return their sitting MP from the Momguao Parliamentary Constituency Mr. Francisco Sardinha for yet another term. For the BJP now sitting in the Opposition both in the State and at the Centre it is a tough task ahead both to re-elect their sitting MP Shri Shripad Y Naik in the Panaji Parliamentary Constituency to score a record hat-trick (indeed he was the only one to have been elected for two successive terms unlike earlier incumbents in the Panaji Parliamentary Constituency ) & throw up their fresh youthful incumbent a known RSS cadre Shri Narendra Savoikar (Adv) for the Mormugao Parliamentary Constituency an otherwise INC stronghold except for 2004 when the BJP candidate Mr Ramakant Angle made it at the hustings. The BJP no doubt has a strong organizational wing it has an efficient booth managing committee in place they have re-hearsed well their canvassing strategy before the election notification for the ensuing polls yet being in the Opposition 8 seats and 6 seats North and South there are several odds. As against this the INC and its combine has the support of ( 25 +1 ) and is on the Treasury benches. Yet it is riddled with inherent contradictions not only within their party but even with their coalitions partners who at best are with daggers drawn which result in sporadic flares when denied the “fruits” “malai” of office . The performance or lack of it of the present State Government is reflected in the number of protests against the Government since June 2007 on issues ranging from MOPA, Dabolim airport, Tour and Taxi operators, IFFI, SEZ, Mega Projects, RP 2011 or 2021, PDA/ODP’s CRZ, Sports city, Cidade de Goa volte face garbage, illegal encroachments, six lane road , influx of migrants, bogus voters, threat of changing demographic composition of the State, the unresolved Konkani language issue involving script, unchecked price rise, transport hikes. communal strifes, inaction over destruction of places of worship, unchecked thefts robberies rapes murder and the general disenchantment of those governed by an insensitive bureaucracy, and a political corpus that is insensitive to the aspirations of the people to a great extent is causing enough heartburn to the sensitivities of the voter who is expected to cast his/her precious vote. And vote he/she must despite this pathetic scenario. There is a single demand of Special Status to Goa and this is an emotive issue not quite well cultivated in the mindsets of Goans. As such it means different things to different parties. For some it is safeguarding scarce land for some it is checking in migration for others it is sops for attracting industry. Hence is the confusion confounded this may not be an issue. One consolation however is that the UPA at the Centre according to many has by and large performed though they could have done better had the Communists not thrown a spanner over the nuclear deal which engaged much of the time of the UPA in the last year of its term. The 26/11 incident has indeed earned them a respite, for their pragmatic handling of the situation though much more could have been expected. The change of guard for lapses which made heads roll added a boost to the UPA's performance. The BJP has made the issues of non performance of the State Government and a weak PM at the Centre controlled by proxy its vote plank. It has promised a new decisive stern leadership with fairness to all appeasement to none. Yet the grape wine is that there are not much takers for their Prime Ministerial candidate within the fold. They would have preferred Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee their moderate “poster boy” then Shri Lal Krishna Advani the “hardliner” whose hands are stained with the Babri Masjid destruction. Nevertheless they would like to see atleast one of their candidates viz; Shri Shripad Y Naik belonging to the non Brahmin community registering a hat trick in the Panaji Parliamentary Constituency. The Mormugao Parliamentary Constituency Shri Savoikar (Adv) owing to his RSS background and an upper caste is on wrong turf. Ideally it is felt that the BJP should have extended its support to its one time coalition partner in the State to Mr. Mathany Saldanha of the UGDP as a ‘quid pro qua’ for his unflinched loyalty to their government in the State in 2005 . They had nothing to lose in the Mormugao Parliamentary Constituency, which has except for one time in the 2004 election always returned a non BJP candidate , as Mr. Saldanha will even if elected without their support be inclined to extend support only to a BJP led coaliton the NDA and never the UPA being averse to the INC. For the INC combine despite the ruling dispensation in the State being insensitive towards most of the regional aspirations of the people, the electorate is generally inclined to ensure the prospects of the sitting MP Mr. Francisco Sardinha. After all for them the UPA has had a better innings in the last term. They are almost mortified at the prospects of an NDA government under Shri L K Advani and hence their unflinched support for the same. Above all Sardinha too will be if elected moving to the Lok Sabha for a third time though not in straight succession. As regards the prospects of the INC combine candidate Mr. Jeetendra Desprabhu of the NCP he bears an outstanding secular credentials, comes from a princely family background has a commanding oratory and wide knowledge. His adverse points are that he has not had the opportunity to tour the entire constituency in his new avtar. Even the prospects of a voter of a Hand symbol switching over for the symbol of a Clock would deprive him the much needed votes, if the turn out turns out to be a damp squib with temperatures running high. Though earlier Dr Wilfred De Souza as an NCP candidate polled an appreciable vote of 80 thousand plus at the last Lok Sabha it was essentially because he was well acquainted with the voter being an ex CM who had the distinction of making an unmaking Governments in the state. Caste equations will definitely play an essential role in deciding the PPC candidate as otherwise the non Brahmin Hindus would be left without a representative. The UGDP and the MGP both regional parties appear to be fighting the election with cross purposes . On the one hand their party MLAs’ both Ministers are coalition partners of the present INC led Government in the State . Both have pledged support to the ruling combines candidates. On the other hand they have their own candidates in the fray. It would be difficult for the voters to except this dual standards. The UGDP lost the emotive symbol of 1967 the “two leaves” associated with the Opinion Poll and has to face the elections with a new symbol scissors . Some argue that this would attract the hindu vote in the MPC but that may not be so. The “Lion” symbol was long given anunceremonial exit by their own party men. It is only a few constituents who flog this Lion symbol yet their victory is essentialy persona based rather than party ideology based . Both UGDP and MGP have no organizational cadres spread over the constituency neither has it a known representation in the local self government bodies. As regards booth management and funds the less said the better. All this would not augur well for the candidates. There is no doubt however that the faithful intentions of the candidate Mr. Mathany Saldhana vying for the SPC , his time tested activism to create awareness and protect the interests of the State spanning well over 30 years would endear him to any “niz Goemcar”. Yet electoral battles are a different cup of tea in the present scenario. The surving faction of the Save Goa Front is at best a rudderless ship, straying in unsavoury waters and is bound to meet a humiliating electoral debacle. Others in the fray will have no bearing on the prospects of the main contenders. Until tomorrow it is a wait and watch for the polling percentage. GODFREY J. I. GONSALVES, BORDA, MARGAO, 403 602, GOA. (INDIA) +91 98221 58584 (24 HRS) [email protected] Now surf faster and smarter ! Check out the new Firefox 3 - Yahoo! Edition http://downloads.yahoo.com/in/firefox/
