Excerpt:-

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the Americans remain in denial, with
monetary and fiscal authorities primed to pick up any slack created by U.S.
consumers unable to make their mortgage repayments and maxed out on their
credit cards.

The policy is patently not working, because the U.S. economy is caught
between a rock and a hard currency. On the one hand, America needs the world
to keep believing in Uncle Sam, because the moment it stops trusting the
greenback, it will dump U.S. Treasuries, pushing up interest rates
dramatically and driving tens or hundreds of thousands more Americans out of
their unaffordable homes.

On the other hand, as long as the markets continue to see the dollar as a
safe haven, it remains strong and U.S. competitiveness suffers accordingly,
making it impossible to generate the export-led recovery the U.S. so
desperately needs.

How will it play out?

Japanese-style deflation and stagnation is certainly a possibility. But my
guess is that it will be preceded by another major crisis  – maybe next
week, next month or next year, but the longer the reckoning is delayed, the
more drastic and painful it is likely to be.

It will be triggered by a drastic rerating of U.S. (and possibly British)
debt, as it suddenly dawns on those who speak the language of Confucius and
the Koran that those who speak the language of Shakespeare cannot
necessarily be trusted to repay their debts – at least, not in hard
currency.

If, by that time, Britain has taken credible steps towards solvency, it may
conceivably be exempt. But more likely it will be swept up in the panic
which will engulf the U.S. as investors rush to sell dollar assets.

Ends
Full read @
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2010/08/25/waiting-for-the-other-shoe-to-drop/

COMMENT: Caveat emptor.
-- 
DEV BOREM KORUM

Gabe Menezes.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Goa-launch of the well-received *Into The Diaspora
Wilderness* by Selma Carvalho on Aug 29, 2010 (Sunday) at 11
am at Ravindra Bhavan, Margao. Meet the author, buy a signed
copy (only Rs 295 in Goa till stock lasts).
http://selmacarvalho.squarespace.com/

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