---------------------------------------------------------------------------
**** http://www.GOANET.org ****
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Goanet joins Noel Rebello to raise money for Daddy's Home (Margao, Goa)
Sponsor Noel as he climbs Mt. Kilimanjaro (5,882m or 19,298 ft)
Make a donation at www.Goanet.org, click on MAKE A DONATION,
state "Daddy's Home" in the Donation comments
For more information see: http://bit.ly/SupportDaddysHome
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The outcome of the election means that Australia may again move towards putting
a price on carbon. Our current view is that it is more likely that this will
consist of some form of emissions trading scheme, rather than a carbon tax. In
this briefing we explore the power brokers, the outcomes, and the likely policy
in the climate change arena.
On 21 August Australia went to the polls, ostensibly to choose, as it has
always done, between the two major parties; the Labor Party and the Coalition.
Climate change was one of the few areas with significant difference between the
policy platforms taken to the electorate. Ultimately, the choice was between a
promise to work towards pricing carbon and a promise to combat climate change
through direct government support for emissions reducing activities.
The incumbent Labor Party promised an assembly of 150 ordinary citizens, aimed
at building a deep and lasting community consensus on pricing carbon with a
view to implementing an emissions trading scheme in late 2012 or 2013. The
Labor Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, promised to lead this public debate.
However, many in the community remained cynical as to the likelihood of seeing
an emissions trading scheme under Labor due to the dumping of the existing
emissions trading legislation (the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme or ‘CPRS’)
in April 2010 after it failed on two occasions to pass through the Senate.
The Coalition promised a ‘Direct Action’ policy platform involving the creation
of an Emissions Reduction Fund that would support projects that reduce CO2
emissions, protect jobs, result in no additional cost to consumers and have
additional environmental benefits. The Coalition policy expected a large
proportion of emission reductions to come from soil carbon projects and changed
agricultural practices.
It soon became clear on the night of 21 August, during the vote count, that
neither of the major parties could form government outright, a result that has
not been seen in Australia (at the Federal level) for 70 years. Requiring 76
seats to form government outright, the Labor Party reached 72 and the Coalition
73. It also became clear from the count that any party that ultimately formed
government would have to work in the Senate with a Greens party holding the
balance of power from 1 July 2011.
As no party had the majority required to form government, many of the policy
dichotomies between the major parties, including climate policy, were thrown up
in the air as the decision on which party would form minority government came
down to four independent members of Parliament and one Greens member. Intense
focus descended on these members as they embarked on the process of deciding
which of the major parties to back.
The newly empowered parliamentary members were the Greens member Adam Bandt
(Greens) and the independent members Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter, Tony Windsor
and Rob Oakeshott. The climate policies of those members have been stated as
follows:
Adam Bandt is a supporter of pricing carbon, firstly through an interim carbon
tax and subsequently through an emissions trading scheme, in line with the
Greens’ stated policy position
Andrew Wilkie is a former Greens candidate and strong supporter of pricing
carbon through either a carbon tax or an emissions trading scheme
Bob Katter is a vocal climate change sceptic and his list of 20 priorities for
this term of government included “no carbon tax” and “no emissions trading
scheme”. Mr Katter supports legislating for 22 per cent ethanol in transport
fuels, however this may be related to his support for his constituent cane
growers rather than any climate change beliefs
Tony Windsor is a strong supporter of pricing carbon. In 2008 he introduced a
private member’s bill calling for a price on carbon through either a carbon tax
or an emissions trading scheme and for overall emissions reduction targets for
Australia of "at least" a 30 per cent reduction in emissions by 2020 and "at
least" an 80 per cent cut by 2050. Mr Windsor voted against the CPRS
legislation in the Lower House as he saw the 5 per cent emission reduction
target by 2020 as not being sufficiently high to make the required cuts in
Australia’s emissions to play its part in global action to avert dangerous
climate change, and
Rob Oakeshott is a vocal supporter of pricing carbon through an emissions
trading scheme. He was outspoken about the compromise reached on the design of
the CPRS with the Coalition, arguing that it had moved away from the design
envisaged in the Garnaut report. Following the demise of the CPRS he said that
there had been a failure “…. to tell the story of climate change and energy
security, and a failure to explain in context why it is in the national
interest to put in place a range of energy measures, with one being a price on
carbon leading to true pricing in the energy market”.
On 1 September the Greens and Labor signed an agreement that they would support
Labor to form minority government. The agreement commits the government to
establishing a ‘well resourced Climate Change Committee … [made up of] …
experts and representative ALP, Greens, independent and Coalition
parliamentarians who are committed to tackling climate change and who
acknowledge that reducing carbon pollution by 2020 will require a carbon price’.
On 2 September the independent Andrew Wilkie signed an agreement with Labor
formalising his support for Labor to form minority government. This agreement
does not commit the parties to action on climate change However, Mr Wilkie is
expected to support moves to price carbon as part of his platform of policies
included that ‘[a] price must be put on carbon pollution, possibly as part of
an enhanced Emissions Trading Scheme’.
The three rural independents (Mr Katter, Mr Windsor and Mr Oakeshott) worked
together in the process of negotiating an arrangement to form government with
one of the major parties. An announcement was set down for 3 pm on 7 September,
but the perennially independent Bob Katter announced his support for the
Coalition in an impromptu media conference less than two hours before the
agreed announcement was due. At 3 pm the two remaining independents made their
announcements, both backing Labor, giving it a slender 76 to 74 majority
required to form government.
With all of the independents supporting the minority Labor government
supportive of pricing carbon in one form or another, it is likely that an
emissions trading scheme will be passed in the next term. The process agreed
between the Greens and Labor, the Climate Change Committee, will likely provide
the pathway forward in that regard. The earliest a scheme could be passed is
July 2011 when the Greens take control of the balance of power in the Senate.
The design of an eventual emissions trading scheme is likely to be influenced
heavily by the new political landscape. Whereas the CPRS was negotiated between
Labor and the Coalition, resulting in a scheme that gave significant exemptions
for large emitters and powerful interest groups, the current process is likely
to result in a scheme that compromises with the new forces required to pass the
legislation; the Greens and the rural independents. This means that there will
likely be greater emissions reduction ambition in the scheme overall, and
agricultural emissions are likely to be brought into the scheme over a longer
period of time. Further, it is likely that in the short term more opportunities
for carbon offsetting through changing agricultural practices is likely to form
a part of the broader policy landscape.
It is also anticipated that rural communities in Australia will see greater
development in renewable energy and clean energy infrastructure as part of a
$10 billion regional development deal struck at the eleventh hour between two
of the independents and Labor.
The Greens are keen for rapid progress on climate change through the Climate
Change Committee. The Greens’ deputy leader, Christine Milne, has recently said
“this is the best political opportunity collectively we’ve ever had,” and that
“this committee will be on track fast and furious”.
Speaking just days after forming government, Julia Gillard said “I'm not going
to pre judge how quickly it can be done… [T]here's a determination to approach
this in a different spirit to the way the carbon pollution reduction scheme
ultimately ended up being approached where consensus was shattered and it was a
matter of high partisanship between the major political parties."
It is more likely now than at any time since the decision to delay the CPRS
that Australia will ultimately move to having a price on carbon. We consider it
is more likely that this will consist of some form of emissions trading scheme,
rather than a carbon tax, given that there is still significant policy momentum
invested in the market based design which underpinned the CPRS, and that the
key independent and Green members consider an emissions trading scheme as the
best long-term option for pricing carbon. The issue which is still uncertain is
when such a price may be imposed, and whether the timing will remain 2012/2013
in accordance with the current Labor policy or whether the Greens will manage
to push something through Parliament after July 2011 when they have the balance
of power in the Senate.
