The high inflation in food items, prevailing in India, is largely due hoarders
and traders of food items and speculators on the commodity exchanges. The lower
ouput due to climatic vagaries is manageable, but the politicians are turning
Nelson’s Eye. Banks are providing loans for speculating on the commodity
exchanges, which is aiding high prices in the forward contracts and giving
confidence to horders to buy more than the demand. They are not worried of
absorbing loss of even 25% wastage in hoarded perishable food items because of
high margins of over 50%.
A big part of Indian agro produce business is controlled by a few associations
with a few hundred members. These trader associations are estimated to reap
increased margins from Rs 2500 crores per month to Rs 30,000 crores per month
during UPA-2 regime. This is potentially a mega scam of omissions category. A
handful of powerful chiefs of assoiations are scheming with politicians, who
get a large share. The media is silent for the obvious reasons.
UPA-2 is just in the second year. Elections are far. First three years is the
time for politicos to make money. Next one year is to make people forget
excesses of the previous three years. The last year is for distributing
largesses to major electorates: NREGA to poor, 6th pay bounty to government
servants, loan waivers-fertilizer subsidies to farmers etc.
At the current rate of food inflation, the effective buying power of Rs 100
paid per day under NREGA would reduce by half in five years. This will give the
government an opportunity to double the daily wages just before elections and
garner votes. Perfect cheating!
Rs 70,000 crore CWG scam and Rs 1.76 lac crore 2G scam are glimses of the
magnitude of money each minister controls. The schemable amounts in the
policy/decision making process of the central ministers have risen 10 fold in
the last decade.
The money, a central minister can now make in the first three years (of 5-year
term) is mind boggling and a minister may not mind even dissolving his party or
retire.
Take NCP. Pawar is growing old and has already given up aspirations for PM’s
post. Daughter-nephew tussle is worrisome. Other power centres like Patel, RR
are waiting for opportunity. In such a scenario, merging party with Congress
could be boon in disguise, if madam assures a good slot for his daughter.
With a revolution against corruption threatening to erupt and with the
possibilities of Lok Ayukta, government losing control over CBI and Gram-sabhas
getting more powers, this perhaps could be the last term for the politicians to
resort to large scale excesses (of omissions) and yet go scot free by stashing
Swiss and Lichestein banks.
The plan: Let traders profit and give us the loot. Let aam admi howl over food
prices. Let Congress blame Pawar. Near to the 2014 elections, dissolve NCP.
Pawar retires. Daughter joins Congress. Madam makes her telecom minister or
bigger. Let the middle class keep blaming NCP. Farmers, government servents and
NREGA beneficieries burdened with largesses vote Congress back to power.
Why otherwise is the Finance Minister spear-heading the measures against food
inlation? Finance ministry can take only peripheral measures like taxes, import
duties, the effects of which percolate into the markets with a lag. The burning
measures are under the ambit of the Agriculture Ministry since the causes of
price rise are supervised by them.
Rajendra
