P[X_1 @ 1] = 1/N,  P[X_2 @ 1] is also = 1/N, ... P[X_N @ 1] =
1/N
If you add all these, 1/N + 1/N + 1/N .... N times, it is equal to 1.
i.e. N x 1/N = 1. This is telling that when the table is   hit
definitely some number is bound to fall at position 1. It is like
saying, when you toss a coin, either heads or tails is definitely
going to show; or if you roll a dice, definitely 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5
or 6 is going to show up!!

Eagle


On May 10, 9:38 am, darthur <[email protected]> wrote:
> For those of you who are interested, here is a little more background
> on Linearity of Expectation, which is what the analysis uses.
>
> A "random variable" is any measurement you make after some random
> events have occurred. The "average value" discussed in this problem is
> officially called "expected value". The expected value of an integer-
> valued random variable X is defined by the following equation:
>
> E[X] = 0 * P[X=0] +  1 * P[X=1] + ... + n * P[x=n]
>
> P[X=2] means the probability that X ends up being 2 after all your
> random events are done.
>
> Here are some random variables in the GoroSort problem:
> - X is the number of elements that Goro moves into the correct
> position after permuting a group of size n.
> - X_1 is 1 if element #1 is moved into the correct position, and 0
> otherwise.
> - X_2 is 1 if element #2 is moved into the correct position, and 0
> otherwise.
> - etc.
>
> No matter what happens, it will always be true that X = X_1 + X_2
> + ... + X_n. There is a theorem called "Linearity of Expectation" that
> says that E[X] = E[X_1] + E[X_2] + ... + E[X_n]. If you get used to
> the notation and write down the formulas for expected values, it is
> actually pretty obvious. Now, let's think E[X_1]. Element #1 can end
> up in n different places, exactly one of which is correct. Therefore
> P[X_1=1] is exactly 1/n, and P[X_1=0] is exactly (n-1)/n. Therefore,
> plugging into the previous formula, E[X_1] = 1/n. Similarly, E[X_k] =
> 1/n for all k. Adding these all up, we get E[X] = 1!
>
> It's a very handy trick when you get the hang of it. Anyway, I hope
> you all enjoyed the contest, and good luck on the next round!

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