UPA will get 215-235 seats, NDA 165-185 seats: Opinion poll
A national opinion poll conducted by a television channel has predicted 215 to
235 seats for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and 165 to 185 seats
for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance in the Lok
Sabha polls.
The predicted range is similar to the results of the last general elections
held in 2004 when the UPA had 222 seats while the NDA had 189.
The poll, conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies for
CNN-IBN, has predicted that the UPA alliance will have a vote share of 36.6 per
cent while the NDA combine will cobble up 29.4 per cent votes.
The poll, which was conducted amongst 20,000 respondents in major states, also
forecasts that the vote percentage for Left parties will slip to six per cent
as against the eight per cent of the share it had in the 2004 general
elections. According to the poll, pre-poll alliances hold the key to power for
both the national alliances of UPA and NDA.
The opinion poll has also said that while both the Congress and the BJP will
gain in their vote percentage as compared to the last general elections, their
respective allies will suffer losses in vote share. While the Congress' allies
will see a drop of 3.4 per cent votes from 10.1 per cent in 2004 to 6.7 per
cent, BJP's allies will secure 7.1 per cent votes, a drop of 6.6 per cent since
the last Lok Sabha polls, the survey said.
The BJP is projected to secure 22.3 per cent of the total votes covered in the
opinion poll and the Congress is said to secure 29.9 per cent. The survey also
suggests that while the 'majority of Congress' gains are coming from an 8 per
cent gain amongst the Hindu upper castes ... the BJP enjoys dominant support
from the rural and urban rich classes'.
