dear friends,
this is from today's ET. since there are more no: of gulf malayalees in
Green Youth, they may like read and respond.

As Gulf shakes, Kerala feels the tremors
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/As_Gulf_shakes_Kerala_feels_the_tremors/articleshow/4070971.cms

 THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: To talk about Kerala's economy being a well-oiled
machinery would be a cruel pun in these trying times when facts are pointing
 to Malayali dreams wilting in the Arabian desert.

Since the 1970s when Keralites began actively participating in the oil
wealth<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/As_Gulf_shakes_Kerala_feels_the_tremors/articleshow/4070971.cms#>of
the Middle East, the local economy of the state has hinged on the
fortunes of Arab oil. Those hinges seem to be creaking as the Gulf oil
economy mechanism is losing its sheen along with the rest of the Middle East
economy.

In* 2007, 8.9 lakh Keralites have returned*, say statistics available with
the Non-Resident Keralites Affairs Department (Norka), established to serve
the nearly 3 million expatriate Keralites around the globe. *The 2008
figures, it is feared, could be far more disappointing.
*
The wounds are going to be both economic and social, though the state is yet
to figure out just how bad the emerging scenario could turn out to be.
"Large-scale job losses in the Gulf are the one thing that can most
adversely affect the state. Kerala has been able to withstand all other
setbacks with the backup of remittances", says V A Joseph, managing director
and CEO of the South Indian
Bank<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/As_Gulf_shakes_Kerala_feels_the_tremors/articleshow/4070971.cms#>,
one of the leading beneficiaries of NRI remittances in the banking sector.

*According to statistics available with the Canara Bank, the lead bank for
Kerala, outstanding balances in NRI accounts in Kerala had improved from Rs
29,889 crore at the end of March 2008 to Rs 31,865 crore at the end of June
2008 and appeared to pleateau at Rs 31,585 crore at the end of September
2008, which are the latest figures available.
*
*The situation in most of the Gulf countries is grim, if expatriates'
accounts are to be believed*. A senior employee with a media group in Dubai
says travel agents there are receiving an increasing number of bookings for
one-way tickets to India. Word is also doing the rounds in the Gulf about
roughly 3,000 cars having been abandoned by their expat owners who were
exiting the UAE for good.

Not all share the view of an impending catastrophe. Says S. Irudayarajan,
chair professor in migration studies at the Centre for Development Studies
here: "There are a lot of rumours about large-scale job losses in the Gulf
but we still do not have hard facts to establish the same. In any case, we
have enough jobs here and expats who are working for a pittance in the Gulf
should ideally be working here".

According to Abraham Joseph, a senior executive in the construction sector
here, it is the meltdown in the construction sector in the Gulf and in
Kerala that has made the situation particularly bitter. "Chaos and confusion
is what awaits the state when the remittance economy crumbles", says he.

Not too long ago, expatriate Keralites were on a high when the rupee
depreciated against the
dollar<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/As_Gulf_shakes_Kerala_feels_the_tremors/articleshow/4070971.cms#>by
roughly 25%, boosting the value of remittances by that same
percentage.
The dollar continues to be strong, but sadly the jobs that would fuel the
remittance surge appear to be turning mirages in the desert.

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