http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jun/03/iran-gaza-flotilla-turkey
Why
Iran is quiet on the flotilla
Iran is usually the first to condemn Israel. Could its silence over the
flotilla attack signal a sea change in Islamic politics?
-
- Meir Javedanfar <http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/meir-javedanfar>
- guardian.co.uk <http://www.guardian.co.uk/>, Thursday 3 June 2010
The takeover of the Turkish-flagged Mavi Marmaris by Israeli
commandos<http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/06/02/netanyahu-defends-response-says-flotilla-not-a-love-boat/>led
to demonstrations in numerous places around the world. People in Baku,
Istanbul, and as far away as Edmonton,
Canada<http://www.cbc.ca/canada/edmonton/story/2010/06/02/edmonton-protest-israeli-gaza-flotilla.html>,
marched on the streets to voice their opposition to Israel's actions.
However, in Tehran and in other big cities in Iran, the streets have been
eerily quiet.
This is unusual for the Iranian government. Iran's supreme leader, Ali
Khamenei, sees himself and the Islamic Republic as the defender of Muslim
rights around the world. During every major confrontation in West Bank or
Gaza, he has been the first to arrange demonstrations. This was
seen<http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7817995.stm>during the
Gaza war of 2009. Demonstrations were also arranged as soon as
the Muhammad cartoon affair caused rage in the Muslim world. Even the
killing of a pregnant Egyptian woman in Germany by a racist individual led
to government-arranged demonstrations against
Germany<http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=162465>in Iran.
So far, four days since the crisis started, we have not seen any major
demonstration in Iran. Although some statements may be made during the
anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death on Friday, the focus on that day
will be on his legacy.
So what has happened?
Khamenei is fearful. Not of Israel, but from his own population. His regime
is isolated within Iran and has lost so much credibility that he is worried
that such demonstrations could turn into anti-government gatherings. And he
would be right.
Last year's Qods Day turned into an opposition
event<http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/10/iran-ahmadinejad-protest>.
The same could happen this year if he arranges demonstrations against the
flotilla incident, especially since we are close to the anniversary of the
2009 Iranian presidential elections. The very fact that opposition leader
Mir Hossein Mousavi issued his own
statement<http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jun/01/1982>against
Israel calling it a "violator of human dignity" makes Khamenei's
concerns more valid.
This is a clear sign that one year on from the elections, we are no longer
looking at the same Iran. The cracks in the foundations of the regime have
still not been repaired.
There is another factor that should concern Khamenei. Israel's taking over
of the Turkish ship was useful for Khamenei's
government<http://the-diplomat.com/2010/06/01/flotilla-fiasco-boon-for-iran/>;
it gave a boost to Iran and its hardline position in the region. However,
the points that Iran has gained pale into insignificance when they are
compared to the effect on Turkey. The flotilla incident and Turkey's role
have catapulted its status in the Muslim world as the defender of Muslim
rights. This most probably includes members of Hamas, whom Iran has been
spending millions on in an effort to buy their support and loyalty.
Which other Muslim country has enough credibility, power and self-confidence
to do what Turkey did? It promised to dispatch the flotilla and it went
through with its promise.
The icing on the cake came when prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a
very clear ultimatum to the Israeli government: free every single Turkish
citizen, including those who assaulted your soldiers, otherwise our
relations will suffer. Within three hours, Binyamin Netanyahu had
accepted<http://coteret.com/2010/06/02/maariv-and-yediot-erdogan-landed-military-planes-in-israel-forced-its-hand-on-flotilla-detainees/>.
Had this been an Arab country, including those that Israel has relations
with, such as Jordan and Egypt, the Israelis would probably have stuck to
their guns. The same for Iran.
But not Turkey. There is a new player in town and Israel takes it very
seriously. Unlike Iran, Turkey has a powerful economy. Its GDP is the 18th
largest<https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html?countryName=Turkey&countryCode=tu®ionCode=me&rank=18#tu>in
the world – one place above Iran. This is a major achievement for a
country which is not a gas and oil exporter. It sits on the border of Europe
and its relations with the EU and the US are astronomically better than
those of its Iranian neighbour. Its power is expanding in the
Caucasus, and relations
are
improving<http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/102098/turkey-believes-erdogan-39-s-visit-to-greece-a-quot-historical-opportunitiy-quot-.html>with
its old foe and rival, Greece.
It's the same in the Middle East, where Turkey, unlike Iran, enjoys good
relations with Sunni-ruled countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt,
as well as among Iran's friends Iraq and Syria. If current trends continue,
Turkey could do what the Islamic Republic of Iran has been trying to do for
the last 32 years: become the most powerful and credible political and
military force in the Islamic world.
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