<http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/discussing+Mubarak+resignation+with+Egypt+Reports/4220752/story.html>
U.S. discussing Mubarak resignation with Egypt: Reports By Sheldon Alberts, Washington Correspondent, Postmedia News February 3, 2011 WASHINGTON — In the moments before Barack Obama addressed the United States Tuesday night about the crisis in Egypt, veteran CNN political sage David Gergen issued a prescient warning to the U.S. president. "I'm not sure what he can do to help in this situation," Gergen said. He was right. Less than 12 hours after Obama assured Americans that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak "recognizes" the need for dramatic change, the 82-year-old dictator's supporters unleashed a wave of violence that so far, has left 10 dead and 800 injured. The tumult and thuggery has not only laid bare the tactics a desperate despot is willing to deploy to maintain control — analysts say it has also shown the limits of U.S. power over an ally once considered America's strongest in the Arab world. "American influence over Mubarak is very weak at this point," said Clifford May, president of the Washington-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "The results to date have been insufficient, to say the least." Mubarak's defiant response to Obama's call for him to begin a transition to democracy "now" has left the White House scrambling to tap more reliable contacts and friends elsewhere in the Egyptian power structure, particularly the nation's military. An element of mystery continues to surround the pivotal 30-minute conversation Obama had with Mubarak on Tuesday, after the Egyptian leader pledged to step down after presidential elections in September. The New York Times reported Friday that the Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for Mubarak to resign immediately. Under the proposal, Mubarak would turn power over to a transitional government headed by Vice-President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, the Times said, citing administration officials and Arab diplomats. The proposal also calls for the transitional government to invite members from a broad range of opposition groups, including the banned Muslim Brotherhood, to begin work to open up the country's electoral system in an effort to bring about free and fair elections in September, the Times reported. Commenting on the report, U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said, "The president, secretary (of State Hillary) Clinton and others have encouraged the Egyptian government to proceed with an orderly transition. Beyond that, we will keep our advice private." Senior Obama administration officials said the proposal was one of several options under discussion with high-level Egyptian officials around Mubarak, although not with him directly, in an effort to convince him to step down now, the paper said. The White House has not said whether Obama pressed Mubarak to leave sooner in their telephone conversation. But whatever Obama said in private, Egyptian officials have since left no doubt that Mubarak took high offence to something the U.S. president said. "The administration is trying to say that the transition mechanism, or process, needs to begin now — not that Mubarak needs to be gone tomorrow morning," says Chester Crocker, a professor of strategic studies at Georgetown University and a former assistant U.S. secretary of state for African affairs. "That may not be what Mubarak read into it." In an interview Thursday with ABC News, the embattled Egyptian president said Obama doesn't "understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now." Mubarak's prediction: "There will be chaos." If Mubarak has resisted Obama's efforts to nudge him from power, there's no clear indication yet how the Egyptian army will respond to U.S. entreaties to act responsibly. The Egyptian military has been the greatest beneficiary of U.S. largesse, receiving the lion's share of annual average of $2 billion in American foreign assistance since 1979. Obama made a point in his speech this week of praising the Egyptian military's "patriotism" for showing restraint in the face of peaceful protest — only to see that restraint morph into seeming indifference as camel-riding goons charged crowds of anti-Mubarak protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square. "My feeling also is that after all we have invested in Egypt, our influence over other officers — in the military — should be strong and needs to be exercised," says May. "The U.S. needs now to say, 'You have a very important mission, and that is to keep order, to prevent anarchy, to prevent chaos, to safeguard the lives of the protesters and other Egyptians.' " That message is already being delivered. In the past several days, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has reached out by telephone to Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, his Egyptian counterpart. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, has spoken also with the commander of Egypt's military, Gen. Sami Enan. >From the start of the crisis in Egypt, foreign policy experts across the political divide in the U.S. have largely empathized with Obama's predicament. The longtime U.S. support of Mubarak's regime has left the Obama administration with little trust among antigovernment protesters, who see his failure to demand Mubarak's immediate resignation as a betrayal to their cause. But the U.S. president risks alarming other Arab and Middle Eastern allies — worried about stability in their own countries — if he pushes too hard for Mubarak's departure, says Crocker. "I give (the administration) very high marks for trying to walk a very fine, difficult line," he said. "It is not just with Egypt. It is with the Saudis, the Lebanese, Jordanians, Israelis." The violence seen the last several days in Cairo is less an indication of the Obama administration's inability to hold sway over Mubarak than it is a sign of how fractured the Egyptian power structure has become, says Crocker. "I think what we are seeing is not a direct measure of American influence, but the not-surprising divisions within some of those institutions in Egypt. It is a test of strength of this point. It is like a turf war," he says. The Egyptian military's reaction to the violence in Tahrir Square "has been disappointing so far," says May. "It seems not to be able to make up its mind. It has been overly passive." But the Egyptian military may be trying to find a middle road between the goonish tactics of the pro-Mubarak protesters — who likely include secret police — and the antigovernment protesters. "My sense is the military is saying 'Enough, already, with this stuff. You have made your point and you represent a legitimate voice, but the way to be heard is not be hurling rocks,' " Crocker says. "They may want to see a smooth transition but they don't want to see the whole system chucked into the Nile, because they are direct beneficiaries of that system." Twitter.com/sheldonalberts -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. 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