http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2011/0606/Peru-presidential-victor-Humala-faces-balancing-act

<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2011/0606/Peru-presidential-victor-Humala-faces-balancing-act>Peru
presidential victor Humala faces balancing act

After edging out Keiko Fujimori in one of the tightest elections in the
country's history, Ollanta Humala will try to help the poorest Peruvians
while still maintaining Peru's economic growth.

By Lucien Chauvin
<http://www.csmonitor.com/About/Contact-Us-Feedback>, Correspondent
/ June 6, 2011
Lima, Peru

Ollanta Humala <http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Ollanta+Humala>, a
retired military officer, was elected president of
Peru<http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Peru> on
Sunday. Humala's victory means a leftward shift in Peruvian policies, though
he claims his model will not
emulateVenezuela<http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Venezuela>,
as his critics fear.

Mr. Humala defeated Congresswoman Keiko
Fujimori<http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Keiko+Fujimori> in
one of the closest races in the country’s history, receiving slightly more
than 51 percent of the votes with 88 percent of the vote counted. The
tightest race before this contest was in 2006, when Humala lost to
current President
Alan Garcia <http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Alan+Garcia> by five
points.

Humala won 17 of the country’s 26 regions, including massive victories in
the southern highlands, coming close to 80 percent in several highly
populated departments. Ms. Fujimori won in nine departments. Her most
important victory was inLima<http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Lima+(Peru)>,
the capital and home to one-third the population, where she scored a
double-digit victory. She also carried the voter-rich northern coastal
departments.

*IN PICTURES: Peru
elections<http://www.csmonitor.com/CSM-Photo-Galleries/In-Pictures/Peru-elections>
*

Humala now has to begin crafting an administration that will be closely
watched by the business sector and much of the media, which were openly
hostile to his candidacy, and supporters who voted for change in the
economic model. It will not be easy.

“I voted for Humala, but I am still not sure,” said Edwin
Lozada<http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Edwin+Lozada>,
a college student studying electrical engineering. “I agree with him that
more people need to benefit from economic growth, but if he tries to do too
much, things could get out of control and everyone will lose.”

Peru’s economy expanded by nearly 9 percent in the first quarter of this
year, and the forecast for the full year is 7 percent, which is slower but
will still gives the country one of the strongest growth rates in the world.
Exports are growing at a record clip, inflation is within the three-point
target for the year, and foreign reserves are close to $50 billion.

Humala won, despite these impressive numbers, because the vast majority of
Peruvians – even those who voted for his opponent – do not feel that they
have benefitted from 10 years of economic growth.
An antiestablishment election

Hernando de Soto, Peru’s best-known economist and a Fujimori adviser, said
that Humala and Fujimori topped the first round of voting in April and
competed in Sunday's runoff because average Peruvians want a larger slice of
economic growth.

“The two antiestablishment candidates won in April because government
policies have not favored the poorest. The past two administrations were
caretaker governments, watching only macroeconomic numbers. This is what has
led to so much social resentment in the country,” Mr. de Soto said.

Humala’s initial platform called for a much greater state role in the
economy in order to distribute the benefits of growth and address the
resentment. One plank talks about electricity, water, and natural resources,
most of which are run by private companies, as “strategic activities that
will be put to use to develop the nation and Peruvians.”

This kind of language terrified the country’s elites and foreign investors,
who feared Humala meant to replicate Hugo
Chávez<http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Hugo+Chavez>’s
model in Venezuela. Humala’s opponents painted him as a Chávez clone when he
first ran for president in 2006. It worked and he lost. Humala has been
distancing himself from Mr. Chávez ever since, and told foreign reporters
two days before the vote that the Venezuelan economic and political
model was not for Peru.
While not changing his platform, Humala announced two additional plans, a
"commitment to Peru" and "roadmap for progress" that he said complemented
it. The road map, presented in May, was much less ambitious than his
original platform and included a pledge not to change the fundamentals of
Peru's economic model.

Many remained unconvinced, as his razor-thin margin of victory shows.
“Humala sounds too much like Chávez. I don’t think his ideas are what Peru
needs if we are to continue to grow,” said Roque
Gonzales<http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Roque+Gonzales> after
casting his ballot in a neighborhood in southern Lima.
Economic concerns already

The political give-and-take began immediately after the vote ended and exit
polls pointed to a victory by Humala. Opponents in Congress called for
Humala to quickly name an economic team to guarantee stability during the
seven-week transition period before his inauguration on July 28.

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski <http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Pablo+Kuczynski>,
a former finance minister who came in third behind Humala and Fujimori in
the April vote, echoed the call for Humala to set up his economic team, as
Mr. Kuczynski predicted a big devaluation of Peru’s currency and drop in the
local stock exchange in the days following the vote.

But Congressman Daniel
Abugattas<http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Daniel+Abugattas>,
a close Humala advisor, said there will be no rushing into things. He said
the stock market might be down at the start of the week, but it will bounce
back strong in a few days. “We are not offering anything radical,” he said.



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Peace Is Doable

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