http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=55966

<http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=55966>Nukes Decline, But Disarmament
Still a Distant Horizon
By Thalif Deen

*UNITED NATIONS, Jun 7, 2011 (IPS) - The world's eight nuclear states - the
United States, Britain, Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan and Israel -
collectively possess more than 20,500 nuclear weapons - a decline of over
2,000 since 2009.*

But more than 5,000 of these devastating weapons are deployed and ready for
use, including nearly 2,000 that are kept in "a state of high operational
alert".

The updated figures were released Tuesday by the Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its Yearbook
2011<http://www.sipri.org/yearbook>
.

Currently, the two biggest nuclear arsenals are in Russia (11,000 nuclear
weapons) and the United States (8,500), followed by France (300), China
(240), Britain (225), Pakistan (90-110), India (80-110) and Israel (80).

The SIPRI Yearbook says that modest cuts in U.S. and Russian strategic
nuclear forces were agreed in April 2010 under the New Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty  <http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/140035.pdf>
(START).

"But both countries currently are either deploying new nuclear weapon
delivery systems, or have announced programmes to do so, and appear
determined to retain their nuclear arsenals for the indefinite future," it
says.

Meanwhile, India and Pakistan, two neighbouring nuclear rivals, continue to
develop new ballistic and cruise missile systems capable of delivering
nuclear weapons.

"They are also expanding their capacities to produce fissile material for
military purposes," says SIPRI <http://www.sipri.org/>, an independent
international research institute focusing on arms control and disarmament.

Still, there has been little progress towards nuclear disarmament, despite
the reduction in the number of weapons.

Asked about the disparity, Jonathan Granoff, president of the Global
Security Institute <http://www.gsinstitute.org/>, told IPS that
"quantitative reductions are of course to be praised, despite the
qualitative offsets of modernisation and robust funding of the nuclear
weapons enterprise."

However, overall progress will only be achieved when the compass point of
elimination is clearly set as the collective goal of nuclear haves and
have-nots together, he pointed out.

Such clarity depends upon commencing the preparatory process to move
unambiguously toward a universal legally enforceable non- discriminatory ban
on nuclear weapons achieved by a convention or by a framework of
instruments.

"With such a clear commitment, the step-by-step incremental quantitative
reductions will have enhanced meaning toward downgrading the political and
military significance of the weapons," he added.

The essential element, he said, is the collective commitment to universal
abolition.

"Rhetoric in this regard is credible only when backed by action," Granoff
declared.

SIPRI senior researcher Shannon Kile said it is a stretch to say that the
New START cuts agreed by the United States and Russia are a genuine step
towards nuclear disarmament when their planning for nuclear forces is done
on a time scale that encompasses decades, and when nuclear modernisation is
a major priority of their defence policies.

Jackie Cabasso, executive director of the Western States Legal
Foundation<http://www.wslfweb.org/> (WSLF),
which monitors and analyses U.S. nuclear weapons programmes, told IPS the
SIPRI report validates what she has been saying for years - at least since
the mid-1990s in connection with the failed deal for U.S. Senate
ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) - essentially that
U.S. nuclear weapons planning is based on the concept of "fewer but newer;
nuclear weapons forever".

The fact that the numbers of nuclear weapons have been drastically reduced
since their mind-boggling peak has been generally confused with disarmament,
when in fact, more than 20,000 nuclear weapons in the hands of eight or nine
states continues to represent an intolerable threat to humanity and the
earth, she noted.

Despite the end of the Cold War, and despite U.S. President Barack Obama's
lofty disarmament rhetoric, the threatened first use of nuclear weapons
remains at the core of the national security policy of the only country that
has thus far used nuclear weapons in war - the United States, she pointed
out.

And this is mirrored in the national security policies of most of the other
nuclear armed states.

The failed U.S. Senate CTBT ratification deal, which cemented ever-
increasing funding for the Stockpile Stewardship nuclear weapons
modernisation programme was replicated on steroids in the START ratification
package.

This package essentially renders START as an anti-disarmament measure,
projecting modernisation of nuclear warheads and their delivery system
decades into the future, said Cabasso, winner of the 2008 Sean MacBride
Peace Prize awarded by the International Peace
Bureau<http://ipb.org/i/index.html>
.

(END)

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