http://www.power-eng.com/news/2011/10/1512234779/nuclear-power-back-from-the-cold.html
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10/02/2011****

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*Nuclear power back from the cold*****

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By Michael Richardson, For The Straits Times****

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THE catastrophic accident at Japan's Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant earlier
this year undermined confidence in, and support for, nuclear power around
the world.****

The plant, which is located north of Tokyo on the Pacific coast, was hit !
by a series of explosions, fires and serious radiation leaks after a massive
earthquake and the monster tsunami waves it generated cut external power to
the plant, causing reactor fuel rods to heat up dangerously.****

It took several months to bring the nuclear crisis under control. Countries
operating the world's 440 commercial reactors, and those with plans to use
atomic power to generate electricity, paused to check safety and other
risks. They had to ask whether nuclear energy was indeed more cost-effective
than other alternatives, including renewable energy.****

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Initially, it seemed that the Fukushima incident might severely constrain
the future growth of civilian nuclear power, which generates about 14 per
cent of global electricity supply. ****

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A number of advanced countries, includ! ing Germany, Italy, Belgium and
Switzerland, have announced that they will phase out existing reactors and
cancel plans for new ones. In South-east Asia, Malaysia, the Philippines and
Thailand either said they were no longer interested in nuclear technology or
have indicated indefinite deferment of their nuclear plans. ****

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However, after this period of reconsideration, it is clear that nuclear
power is far from dead.****

Last week, Vietnam confirmed that it would press ahead with an ambitious
nuclear programme. It signed a deal with a consortium of Japanese reactor
operators to conduct a feasibility study for two new reactors from Japan, in
addition to two already contracted from Russia.****

The Vietnamese government has said that, by 2030, it plans to have 13
nuclear reactors running at eight ! separate plants with a combined capacity
of 15,000 megawatts (MW), amounting to 7 per cent of Vietnam's total
electricity generation capacity.****

Meanwhile, the new Japanese government under Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda
wants nuclear power continued, despite increasing public opposition. The
previous prime minister, Mr Naoto Kan, shocked at the scale of the Fukushima
disaster, sought a phase-out. Mr Noda is determined to restart idled
reactors by next summer to avoid power shortages that would undermine the
economy. ****

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China said recently that it would start approving new nuclear power projects
next year, after suspending them in the wake of the Fukushima accident. ****

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Beijing aims to increase nuclear power capacity to 40,000MW by 2015, from
nearly 11,000MW last year. ****

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China, the world's second-biggest economy and one of its fastest-growing,
has 14 operational nuclear reactors and is building more than two dozen
others. This is about 40 per cent of all reactors being constructed
worldwide.****

Before Fukushima, the International Atomic Energy Agency forecast that
nuclear plants would add 360,000MW of generating capacity by 2035, the
equivalent of 200 new reactors. It now estimates that there will be only
half that number.****

However, many will be in developing nations, raising fresh concerns about
safety and the possible spread of nuclear weapons.****

Only around 6 per cent of global nuclear power capacity today is in
developing countries. It is confined to China, India, Brazil, South Africa,
Mexico, Argentina a! nd Pakistan.****

But a recently updated report by the World Nuclear Association says that
nuclear power is under serious consideration in more than 45 countries that
do not have it. All but about a dozen are in Asia, the Middle East and
Africa.****

In Saudi Arabia, a senior official said last week that the government
planned to spend more than US$100 billion (S$129 billion) for 16 commercial
reactors by 2030, with the first in operation by 2021.****

Developing countries opting for nuclear power cite the need to meet rapidly
rising demand for electricity, conserve oil and gas supplies, and cut
greenhouse gas emissions. Unlike fossil fuel power, reactors produce no
carbon dioxide.****

However, Mr Pervez Hoodbhoy, a nuclear physicist in Pakista! n and critic of
the country's nuclear policy, warns that some developing countries' interest
could mask another objective: nuclear weapons.****

'India and Pakistan built their weapon-making capacity around their civilian
nuclear infrastructure,' he says. 'They were not the first and will not be
the last.'****

Indeed, the technologies and expertise needed for peaceful uses of nuclear
energy can form the basis of programmes to make nuclear bombs.****

So the spread of nuclear reactors into parts of the world where geopolitical
tensions and rivalries are rife, including Asia and the Middle East, raises
the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation.****

This makes it all the more imperative for countries adopting power reactors
to have professional a! nd independent regulatory regimes - and a strong
commitment to international non-proliferation measures.****

The writer is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies.****


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Peace Is Doable

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