Snowden's options appear to narrow in bid to evade U.S. arrest
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/29/us-usa-security-snowden-analysis-idUSBRE95S01D20130629
By Matt Spetalnick and Lidia Kelly
WASHINGTON/MOSCOW | Fri Jun 28, 2013 10:20pm EDT
(Reuters) - Nearly a month after Edward Snowden exposed top secret U.S.
surveillance programs, the former spy agency contractor looks no closer to
winning asylum to evade prosecution at home - and his options appear to be
narrowing.
Stuck in legal limbo in a Moscow airport transit area and facing
uncertainty over whether any of the destinations he is said to be
contemplating - Ecuador,
Venezuela<http://www.reuters.com/places/venezuela?lc=int_mb_1001>
and Cuba <http://www.reuters.com/places/cuba> - will let him in, Snowden
seems to be at the mercy of geopolitical forces beyond his control.
Unseen in public since arriving in Moscow last weekend, much remains
unclear about Snowden's overtures to various countries and how they have
responded behind the scenes.
Russia <http://www.reuters.com/places/russia> may no longer have sufficient
reason to continue harboring Snowden if, as is widely believed, its
intelligence services have already questioned him about the classified
documents that he has admitted to taking from the National Security Agency.
The leftist government of Ecuador, already sheltering
WikiLeaks<http://www.reuters.com/subjects/wikileaks?lc=int_mb_1001>
founder Julian Assange at its London embassy, is reviewing Snowden's
asylum request, though officials have sent mixed signals, suggesting the
process could drag on for weeks.
Venezuela's new president, Nicolas Maduro, has spoken favorably of granting
refuge to Snowden but has taken no action, and he may think twice about
risking a setback in tentative steps toward post-Chavez rapprochement with
Washington.
And even if Ecuador or Venezuela
<http://www.reuters.com/places/venezuela> decide
to take Snowden, there is no guarantee that
communistCuba<http://www.reuters.com/places/cuba?lc=int_mb_1001>,
the likely transit point for any flight from Moscow to those South American
countries, would let him pass through and further complicate its own thorny
relations with the United States.
Adding to Snowden's troubles, the Obama administration, embarrassed by his
disclosures on U.S. surveillance programs and his ability to dodge
extradition when he fled Hong Kong last Sunday, is bringing heavy pressure
to bear on any country that might consider accepting him, diplomats say.
"Thus far, he has chosen his destinations carefully," said Carl Meacham, a
foreign policy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
in Washington. "His time, even in those countries, however, may be running
out."
Another potential complication is the role of anti-secrecy group
WikiLeaks<http://www.reuters.com/subjects/wikileaks?lc=int_mb_1001>,
whose alliance with Snowden further politicizes his case. British legal
researcher Sarah Harrison, a top WikiLeaks lieutenant and Assange
confidante, escorted Snowden on the flight from Hong Kong to Moscow and is
believed to have remained with him.
FOCUS ON RUSSIA <http://www.reuters.com/places/russia?lc=int_mb_1001>
Russia <http://www.reuters.com/places/russia?lc=int_mb_1001> remains the
chief focus of the diplomatic scramble, and while President Vladimir Putin
has clearly delighted in the chance to tweak Washington, there are
questions whether he wants a prolonged saga that threatens deeper damage to
already-chilly U.S.-Russia relations.
The former NSA contractor's trek took him to Moscow because he had little
choice of any other route that would keep him relatively safe from his
American pursuers, former Russian intelligence officers and political and
security analysts said.
"He has almost nowhere to go. He does not have much of a choice," said
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs and a
member of an influential foreign policy council.
"Considering that he came out with a serious statement that is seen by the
United States as treasonous, he needs to lay out an itinerary through
countries where he can feel more or less certain that he will not be handed
over."
Despite Putin's insistence that Russian intelligence agencies had not been
"working with" Snowden, a Russian security service source said they would
certainly have interviewed him.
U.S. authorities are already operating on a "worst case" assumption that
all of the classified material in Snowden's possession has made its way to
one or more adversary intelligence services, U.S. national security sources
said.
While top U.S. officials have warned of serious damage to national security
interests from Snowden's leaks, Lukyanov suggested that in intelligence
terms he was probably not a very valuable prize. "He is not some kind of
special agent," he said.
Putin has built his return to the presidency on strident nationalism. If he
hands Snowden back to the United States, he could face a backlash from
Russians who see the American as a whistle-blowing hero.
"No matter what, we should not give him back. Let him go somewhere, or even
stay in Russia - we are a big country and we have room for him as well as
(French actor Gerard) Depardieu," said Viktor, a pensioner who was at
Sheremetyevo airport on Friday for a vacation flight to Ukraine.
CONFUSION OVER ECUADOR
However, Snowden's protracted stay at the Moscow airport may have more to
do with his problems reaching a deal with Ecuador than with any Russian
desire to keep the American fugitive from moving on, the Russian security
source said.
Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa has inserted his small Andean nation
into the saga by offering asylum to Snowden, whom he has praised for
exposing U.S. espionage efforts. However, he may also be trying to fill the
void left by the death of Venezuelan socialist President Hugo Chavez - for
a decade Washington's most vocal adversary in the region.
While Ecuador seems like Snowden's best bet as a place of refuge, its
intentions are unclear.
Assange said earlier that Ecuadorean diplomats in London had issued a
temporary travel document intended for Snowden, whose U.S. passport had
been revoked. But the Quito government denied this.
In the meantime, Correa has said Ecuador cannot move forward with the
asylum request until Snowden is in the country or makes his way to one of
its embassies. Correa has indicated he is not planning to arrange transit
for Snowden.
Returning to Quito on Friday from a tour of Asia, Ecuadorean Foreign
Minister Ricardo Patino said his government had been involved in talks with
the Russian government about Snowden's fate, but without any result.
For now, Venezuela also was not looking promising for Snowden. Maduro has
made clear several times that he would take a positive view of an asylum
request, though he said on Thursday that "no one has asked us for
humanitarian refuge."
Since taking office in April, Maduro has at times used thunderous,
Chavez-style, anti-U.S. rhetoric but he has also expressed interest in
better relations with Washington.
Without help from a sympathetic government, Snowden's ability to travel is
limited. The increasingly grim predicament may explain why his father on
Friday said he is reasonably confident the 30-year-old Snowden would return
if certain conditions were met.
Those conditions include not detaining Snowden before trial, not subjecting
him to a gag order and letting him choose the location of his trial,
according to a letter that Lonnie Snowden's lawyer, Bruce Fein, sent to
U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder.
(Additional reporting by Steve Gutterman and Alexei Anishchuk in Moscow,
Jeff Franks in Havana, Brian Ellsworth in Quito, and Susan Heavey in
Washington; Editing by Alistair Bell, Tiffany Wu and Eric Beech)
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