["Assad and his Russian and Iranian sponsors warned the US on Thursday
against striking regime targets. But Assad's deputy foreign minister,
Faisal Mekdad, told NBC that Assad would have "no reservations
whatsoever" about US air strikes against Isis, a prospect the Assad
regime appears to be gambling it can trade for tacit US acceptance of
its survival."

That's pretty much interesting.]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/11/obama-isis-coalition-middle-east-countries

Middle East countries sign up to Obama's coalition against Isis

Leaders of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon pledge to 'stand united'
and express openness to contribute to US war effort

    Spencer Ackerman in New York
    theguardian.com, Thursday 11 September 2014 22.30 BST       

 Isis fighters during a parade in Raqqa, Syria. Photograph: AP

Middle Eastern governments formally signed on to Barack Obama's war
coalition against the Islamic State (Isis) on Thursday, even as major
questions remained about the expansion of the air war into Syrian
territory the jihadist army controls.

A day after Obama told the US public that the latest war in the skies
above Iraq will soon cross the border into Syria, he received a major
diplomatic boost from the leaders of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and
the Gulf Cooperation Council - an alliance of the Sunni Arab Gulf
nations, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates -
who pledged to "stand united" against "the so-called Islamic State in
Iraq and the Levant."

In a document known as the Jeddah Communique, issued after intense
diplomacy from US secretary of state John Kerry in the Saudi city, the
signatories agreed to staunch Isis funding and influx of foreign
fighters, critical priorities for Washington. They expressed openness
to contributing directly to the war effort, saying they would be "as
appropriate, joining in the many aspects of a coordinated military
campaign" against Isis.

Many of the Gulf signatories have operated weapons and cash pipelines
to Syrian rebels, including extremist groups, that have redounded to
Isis's benefit. Saudi Arabia's royal family, usually loath to
criticize its US partner, has excoriated Obama for what it considers
insufficient action against Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and Iran,
yet the Saudis have now agreed to host the training of Syrian rebel
groups for the US military, effectively aligning themselves with
regional rival Iran against the mutual Isis foe.

The ability of those Syrian rebel groups to take and hold terrain away
from Isis and reap the benefits of forthcoming US airstrikes are
amongst the major questions surrounding Obama's anti-Isis strategy.
Another is Assad's willingness to allow US warplanes access to Syrian
skies, even for strikes against a mutual foe, as Obama reiterated a
commitment to his ouster and will be training rebels who seek his
overthrow as well as Isis' downfall.

Army general Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
who has long viewed US military action in Syria with skepticism, told
Congress last year that training a rebel force would cost $500m per
year - the sum Obama is asking Congress to approve. He has also
frequently worried about the formidability of Assad's air defenses, a
mixture of Soviet-era missiles and jets, mostly along Syria's western
coast.

As Obama has warmed in recent weeks to expanding the air war into
Syria, US officials have mused that the territory they sought to take
from Isis is in the east, rendering the skies there a more permissible
environment than in Assad's coastal strongholds.

Retired air force lieutenant general David Deptula, a former branch
intelligence chief and Desert Storm attack planner, warned that some
of Syria's defenses were mobile, mounted on trucks,

"It's a complex situation but not impossible," Deptula said, as
Syrians have had to defend their skies against the sophisticated
Israeli air force. He advocated issuing a diplomatic demarche "to say,
we're conducting operations against Isis and if any of your air
defenses threaten any of our forces they'll be dealt with accordingly,
and we need to be prepared to do that."

Christopher Harmer, a former US navy officer, said Assad's air
defenses are overrated, and cited by Pentagon officials as an excuse
for inaction. "Once they turn on the tracking radar ... we're going to
have a dozen anti-radiation missiles go after it. I can't imagine the
Assad regime would be dumb enough to impede our progress," he said.

Assad and his Russian and Iranian sponsors warned the US on Thursday
against striking regime targets. But Assad's deputy foreign minister,
Faisal Mekdad, told NBC that Assad would have "no reservations
whatsoever" about US air strikes against Isis, a prospect the Assad
regime appears to be gambling it can trade for tacit US acceptance of
its survival.

A more substantial problem, military experts said, will be developing
Isis targets in eastern, where US intelligence networks are believed
to be slim - something the rebel training may alleviate. Isis is
entrenched in cities like Raqqa and intermingled with civilian
infrastructure, blunting the advantages of US air power and daring
Washington to inflict civilian casualties.

It is also unclear if US military trainers will enter Syria alongside
retrained rebels to call in airstrikes from US pilots. Without US
spotters on the ground, an effective air campaign in Syria will be
reliant on the rebels, Harmer said, a process that would take months
or longer to develop trust.

"These guys are going to take a lot of training before they can call
in airstrikes, and if not, then we're acknowledging it's a static air
war scenario," said Harmer, now an analyst for the Institute for the
Study of War.

"That's step one in a 10-step process. It worked well in March and
April 2003" in Iraq as the US invasion took Baghdad, but afterward, US
pilots found themselves frustrated by "a human network extremely
difficult to attack" from above.

-- 
Peace Is Doable

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