[It is being speculated for a while, by some commentators at least,
that a new equation, even if only informal, is in the process of
taking shape between the US, on the one hand, and the Assad regime and
Iran, on the other, in the context of Obama declaring an open war
against the ISIS in Iraq-Syria.
The US has, in fact, carried out major air strikes in Syria against an
entity which is reportedly doggedly fighting both Assad and the ISIS.
If things continue to move in that direction that'd come as a major
breather for the genocidal Assad regime.
Of course one'll have to wait and watch.]
US leverages Iran-Iraq-Syria axis against Islamic State
Last week, this column
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/syria-isis-srf-iran-russia-unga.html>,
picking up on US Secretary of State John Kerry’s remark to the UN
Security Council on Sept. 19 that Iran has a role to play in the
coalition against the Islamic State (IS), suggested, “While the Obama
administration has ruled out an alliance with Syria, Iran could be a
bridge to Damascus within an international coalition against IS and in a
subsequent political transition in Syria.”
Summary⎙ Print
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/syria-iran-alliance-islamic-state-extremism-rouhani-zarif.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=99412f1282-Week_in_review_September_29_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-99412f1282-100372581#>
New alignment offers the potential for breakthrough in the battle
against extremist groups; the Arab world has a pulse, not an illness.
Author Week in Review
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/al-monitor.html>Posted
September 28, 2014
Translator(s)Sibel Utku Bila
This week, Reuters
<http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/23/us-syria-crisis-usa-iran-idUSKCN0HI2F220140923>,
citing
unnamed senior Iranian and US officials, reported that ***the United States
had informed Iran in advance of airstrikes against IS forces in Syria
and assured Tehran that it would not target Syrian government
positions*** [emphasis added].
Another bridge to Syria and Iran has been Iraq, according to
Foreign Policy’s The Cable
<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/09/23/is_this_washington_s_intermediary_to_assad>
and
The Wall Street Journal
<http://online.wsj.com/articles/diplomatic-role-for-iraq-1411603402>. Iraqi
national security adviser Faleh al-Fayyad traveled to Syria
<http://www.sana.sy/en/?p=13927> on Sept. 16 to brief Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad on the “latest steps taken in this regard, as well as
discussing upcoming steps and possible measures to ensure the success of
these efforts and eliminate terrorist organizations in all their forms.”
Although the deputy chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Gen. Massoud
Jazayeri, said that Iran’s nuclear negotiating team at the United
Nations has no authority to discuss the campaign against IS, as reported
by Arash Karami
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/iran-nuclear-negotiators-have-no-authority-islamic-state.html>,
***it is an open secret that US and Iranian officials have been talking
about just that on the sidelines of the nuclear talks*** [emphasis added].
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/rouhani-iran-us-cooperation-nuclear-deal-syria-criticism.html>,
in his remarks at the UN, opened the door to even further collaboration
against IS once a nuclear deal is reached, as reported by Barbara Slavin
and Laura Rozen.
The United States and Iran cannot formally link arms in Syria,
especially given the lack of progress in the nuclear talks. Iran has
been an adversary and enemy, not an ally, and still supports and
shelters terrorists
<http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/25/will-iran-sell-out-al-qaeda-for-nukes.html?via=desktop&source=twitter>,
according to The Daily Beast.
Nonetheless, the trend to watch is the tentative emergence of what may
be a truly regional counterterrorism coalition, with potential for a
transformation in regional security, if managed carefully.
This column speculated back in January that the “new pulse
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/week-in-reviewgeneva-ii.html>”
of the Geneva II process would be addressing the threat to
counterterrorism in the region, with an essential role for Iran.
The Iran-Iraq-Syria axis provides a sectarian complement to the
primarily Sunni Arab powers backing US airstrikes.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
<http://www.mfa.gov.ir/index.aspx?fkeyid=&siteid=3&pageid=2015&newsview=307663>,
after meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal on Sept. 21,
spoke of “the first page of a new chapter” in Iran-Saudi relations, with
consequences for many of the region’s most vexing conflicts.
Iran is in the fight against IS for its own interests, not to cull favor
with the United States. Its efforts have won praise from Massoud Barzani
<http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/26/uk-iraq-security-kurds-idUKKBN0GQ0UL20140826>,
president of Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government, who said at a press
conference with Zarif on Aug. 27, “Iran was the first country to provide
us with weapons and ammunition" to confront the IS advance toward Erbil.
While Zarif denied that Iran had provided any ground forces in Iraq,
Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who runs the aerospace division of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said this past week that IRGC forces
were directly involved in the defense of Erbil, according to The
Associated Press
<http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-general-70-aides-helped-iraq-battle-group-25721276>.
Iran was instrumental in the peaceful transfer of the premiership from
Nouri al-Maliki to Haider al-Abadi in Iraq, and in managing the
presidential transition from former President Hamid Karzai to Ashraf
Ghani in Afghanistan. Cooperation in Afghanistan may be more urgent than
ever, given the recent surge in Taliban violence
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/mistrust-between-afghanistan-and-pakistan-soars-as-us-forces-depart/2014/09/25/c5cd678c-3f30-11e4-b0ea-8141703bbf6f_story.html>
in
that country.
There are alternative perspectives on Iran’s role against IS. For some
observers
<https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/552197-the-devil-you-dont-know>,
the prospect of any type of accommodation with Iran is so alarming that
they suggest giving a kind of pass to Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s
affiliate in Syria, which has aligned with other so-called
moderate Islamist rebel forces, because of the perceived greater good of
toppling Assad, and to assure Iran does not get an advantage in Syria.
Just a quick fact: Al-Qaeda, not Assad or Iran, was responsible for the
terrorist attacks against the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, and until
last year, Jabhat al-Nusra worked hand in hand with IS. The break
between the two groups, both of which are designated by the United
States and the UN as terrorist organizations, is the result of a power
struggle, not a change of heart in either its hatred of the United
States or its ambitions to impose Sharia in those areas it controls.
If there are US-backed opposition groups that are aligned with Jabhat
al-Nusra and advocating a go-easy approach on the terrorist group, then
perhaps the United States should reconsider funding those
"moderate" groups. This column warned
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/12/syria-lebanon-islamic-front-political-transition-conflict.html>
in
December 2013 that the emergence of the Islamic Front among the
opposition would be a “disaster for Syria’s opposition and future,” and
here we are today with some in the Syrian opposition seeking to
mainstream an al-Qaeda affiliate.
This should be a huge, neon warning sign about the perils of playing in
opposition politics, where anti-Western jihadists, not pro-US democrats,
carry the most sway.
The actions taken by Iran against IS to date contrast with what Turkey
has done, or not done, until now against the terrorist group. The
release last week of the 46 Turkish citizens held hostage by IS in Iraq
may signal a new Turkish approach. Mustafa Akyol
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/turkey-isis-surveys-distate-turkish-public-opinon.html>
reviews
polling data that reveals jihadism is a “marginal trend” in Turkish
society.
Semih Idiz
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/turkey-syria-iraq-united-states-join-isis-coalition.html>
writes that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will need to overcome
some troubling caveats in Turkey’s policies to date against extremist
groups and step up against IS:
“It's also not clear how the ruling Justice and Development Party’s
Islamist roots will respond to active participation by Turkey against IS
and other such Islamic groups, regardless of how radical they may be.
Developments have shown, however, that Turkey is not as influential on
its own in the region as it may have once thought, and that it has
little choice but to move back to the multilateral track. This means it
has no choice but to act with regional and global allies to confront
situations that pose a danger to its national security.”
The trend toward a regional counterterrorism strategy is nascent and
fragile, but — if managed carefully — has the potential, over time, of a
breakthrough in regional politics, especially with a change in Turkish
policies.
Despite the political constraints on Rouhani by hard-liners in Iran, his
government is already taking its own initiative to battle extremists in
the region and clearly signaling it is ready to do more. As Fareed
Zakaria
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fareed-zakaria-the-fight-against-the-islamic-state-must-include-iran/2014/09/25/e6757500-44e0-11e4-9a15-137aa0153527_story.html>
wrote this week: "When Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger decided in the
1970s that Iran would be one of their 'regional policemen,' they did so
out of recognition of Iran’s geostrategic importance, not simply because
they supported the shah."
If Iran, over time, shifts from enemy to ally, beginning with a nuclear
agreement and coordination in the fight against terrorism, then many of
the region’s most vexing problems, including the role of Hezbollah, can
be put in play. This column reported in February: “A discussion with
Iran about Syria is a prelude to a broader discussion about Hezbollah
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/02/syria-us-should-engage-iran-russia.html>,
which is at the crux of the US tagging Iran as a state sponsor of
terrorism.” That is the conversation that needs to be had during this
transition. Given how far the US-Iran dialogue has already come, it is
not out of the question to consider the potential of such a trend.
*The Arab pulse*
The trend toward a possible regional coalition against IS, under US
leadership, could be the beginning of the end for the extremist force
that, according to the latest US government estimates
<http://news.yahoo.com/cia-islamic-state-group-31-500-fighters-214209378.html>,
number between 20,000 and 31,500.
While the threat of Islamic extremism will never be completely
eradicated, there is a pulse among the peoples of the Arab world for a
new politics, transparency and accountability from their leaders. The
trend toward conflict resolution and good governance in the Middle East
is fragile and not assured, but it can take hold if given a chance.
Look at Lebanon. More than two decades after a brutal sectarian civil
war, the country today is a vibrant mosaic of its peoples and
cultures. The leaders and groups that fought each other for decades now
coexist, sometimes uneasily, but coexist nonetheless around a consensus
on keeping the peace. It is fragile, for sure, but it is
there. Lebanon’s universities maintain their reputation as a magnet for
the best and brightest in Lebanon and the region.
Despite these nascent yet hopeful trends, there remains an approach to
the region that pins the problems of the Arab world on its
alleged “civilizational ills
<http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/09/the-barbarians-within-our-gates-111116_Page3.html#.VCcIumddWYE>,"
implying
Arabs have a cultural predisposition to tribalism, corruption and
religious violence, as if these phenomena do not exist in other cultures
and societies. These culturally driven essays make good copy, especially
when written by someone from the region who employs an abundance of
"history" and metaphor.
A more helpful, and truly analytical, historical approach to what is
indeed a crisis in the Arab region would include an assessment of the
effect of colonialism and the postcolonial experience on Arab societies;
the impact of oil on the international relations of the region; the
consequences of rentier economies in the Gulf; the role of outside,
non-Arab powers including the United States, Russia, European countries,
Israel, Iran and Turkey on the region’s politics; the impact of the
creation of Israel and the Palestinian national movement; the influence
of the Wahhabist tradition on current jihadist groups; the role of
states, institutions and individuals, in and outside the region,
which have backed the flow and emergence of these jihadist movements;
and the economic and demographic trends that may shape the Arab region
in the decades to come.
Arab civilization is not "sick"; its peoples are in the midst of a
struggle for identity and democracy, where the forces of extremism
command resources and influence. The people of the Levant love their
culture, their cities and their land, and there is much to be proud of.
There is no reason to believe the Arab peoples of the Levant will not
reclaim their place in the world, as happened in Lebanon, with the
assistance of an international community and region that is ready to put
an end to those fringe groups that prey on the forces of division, not
unity.
Read more:
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/syria-iran-alliance-islamic-state-extremism-rouhani-zarif.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=99412f1282-Week_in_review_September_29_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-99412f1282-100372581#ixzz3EjGRZxOM
--
Peace Is Doable
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