I/III. http://www.business-standard.com/article/elections/takeaways-from-maharashtra-haryana-elections-114101900482_1.html 5 key takeaways from Maharashtra, Haryana elections
*Dalits and sections of OBCs, an erstwhile bastion of Congress, have shited towards BJP* *Mayank Mishra <http://www.business-standard.com/author/search/keyword/mayank-mishra> | New Delhi * *October 20, 2014* Last Updated at 00:22 IST The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s solid solo performance in Maharashtra <http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Maharashtra>and Haryana <http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Haryana>Assembly elections <http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Assembly+Elections>confirms continuation of some of the trends that emerged in the Lok Sabha <http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Lok+Sabha>elections in May this year. The saffron party has won a majority of seats in Haryana and has emerged as the single-largest formation in Maharashtra. It has done so with the help of a coalition of Dalits, upper castes and some sections of other backward classes (OBCs) votes -- a trend which was very much visible in May too. Here are five messages that have emanated out of the verdict in the two states: *1. BJP's Dalit-OBC-upper caste coalition* There are as many as 21 Assembly seats in Haryana, where Dalit voters have a decisive say on the electoral outcome. They constitute nearly 20 per cent of the voting population in the state. The BJP <http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Bjp>would not have got the mandate it did in Haryana without large support from the Dalits. "But for expansion of its social base, the BJP would not have done so well in Haryana. It would have got a fair share of Dalit votes," says Sanjay Kumar, director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). What has perhaps worked in the BJP's favour is growing animosity between Jats, the dominant social group in Haryana, and the Dalits. The BJP's rivals in the state, the Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), were seen to be courting Jats, say political observers. This confirms continuation of the trend that was witnessed in the Lok Sabha elections. The CSDS surveys showed that the BJP got a sizeable chunk of Dalit votes (almost 26 per cent, up from mere 10 per cent in 2009) and nearly 50 per cent of lower OBC <http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Obc>votes in the Lok Sabha elections. It got a majority of upper caste votes also. In Maharashtra, too, the BJP seems to have managed a sizeable chunk of Dalit votes. "Urban Dalits seem to have voted for the BJP in Maharashtra. In addition to that, the party has retained its hold among upper castes, some sections of OBCs and Maratha voters as well," says Nitin Birmal of Dr Ambedkar College of Arts & Commerce, Yerawada, Pune. He happens to be Maharashtra coordinator for CSDS surveys and has written extensively on state elections. What it essentially means is that the BJP seems to have forged a grand coalition of Dalits, upper castes and some sections of the OBCs. The Congress dominated the electoral politics till the 1980s on the back of its support base among Dalits, upper castes and the Muslims. The BJP seems to have taken over the same base minus the Muslims, who have been replaced by sections of OBCs. *2. Strong performance in Lok Sabha elections not replicated in Assembly elections* In the last Assembly elections in Maharashtra, the coalition that did well in the Lok Sabha elections improved its performance in the Assembly polls that followed. In 2004, for instance, the two major coalitions -- the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and BJP and Shiv Sena -- polled the same percentage of votes at 42 per cent. But in the Assembly elections that followed five months later, the Congress-NCP took a lead of nearly six per cent votes over the BJP-Sena combine. The same trend was visible in 2009 as well; the difference between the two coalitions was 3.5 per cent in the Lok Sabha elections, but it increased to 7.1 per cent in the subsequent Assembly elections. The trend seems to have reversed this time. The BJP was ahead in 145 Assembly segments in the last Lok Sabha elections. But it has fallen short of that number now. Similarly, the Shiv Sena too has come down from its Lok Sabha polls' performance when it was ahead of its rivals in 99 Assembly segments. The Congress and the NCP, on the other hand, have improved their performance since the Lok Sabha elections. *3. Strong central leadership can overcome organisational handicap* In the last 25 years, the BJP never contested elections in nearly 150 Assembly seats in Maharashtra and reports suggest that the party did not have functional organisation in large parts of the state. The party suffered from a similar handicap in Haryana as well. But the fact that it won a majority of seats in Haryana and emerged as the single-largest party by quite a distance in Maharashtra shows that the positive momentum generated by a strong leader like Prime Minister Narendra Modi can make up for the lack of organisational support. "It used to happen during Indira Gandhi's days. People would vote in her name in all elections. Same thing is happening in Modi's name now. While it is a source of strength in the short-term, it might be a potential source of weakness in the medium and long-term," observes Kumar. *4. Congress touches new low* Both Maharashtra and Haryana have been a Congress stronghold for many years. In the former, it has been part of the ruling coalition for the last 15 years. However, its vote share has now dropped below the psychologically important mark of 20 per cent, despite contesting many more seats than what it did in the last elections. Prominent psephologist and Aam Aadmi Party leader Yogendra Yadav told a news channel that the Congress has found it difficult to regain its strength in states where its vote share has fallen below 20 per cent. In Haryana, on the other hand, not only has the Congress been the ruling party for the last 10 years, but it has always done well in the absence of a coalition of parties coming together against it in the last 20 years. "It is going to be an uphill task for the Congress to recover its ground now. In its bastions, it has been relegated to number three or four slot," says Kumar. *5. Coalition politics faces temporary halt* The BJP's solid solo act this time and the party winning a majority on its own in the earlier Lok Sabha elections are perceived as the beginning of the end of the coalition era that entrenched itself in the 1990s. However, the fact that Maharashtra is likely to continue its long tradition of coalition government suggests that the politics of coalition is down, but might not be completely out, say observers. "I will say it is a temporary blip. The conditions that have given rise to the politics of coalition have remained intact. With the next round of elections due in Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand and Bihar, parties are bound to pursue alliances, bringing the focus back to coalition politics," argues Kumar. II/III. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/maharashtra-news/Maharashtra-elections-2014-Congress-and-NCP-grow-from-Lok-Sabha-election-low/articleshow/44893504.cms Maharashtra elections 2014: Congress and NCP grow from Lok Sabha election low TNN | Oct 21, 2014, 03.41AM IST The verdicts of the LokSabha elections and the assembly polls in Maharashtra, within just five months of each other, are not surprisingly very similar. Yet, the Shiv Sena has clearly been a loser in terms of seats in this short period and the Congress and NCP clear gainers. In May, the BJP <http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/Bharatiya-Janata-Party> had led in 132 assembly segments, the Sena in 100 and their allies Swabhimani Paksha and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha in 12, giving the NDA a total of 244. Five months later, with the alliance broken, that total is down to 186, a loss of 58 seats. The BJP's tally has declined by only 10, but the Sena is down by 37 and the smaller allies by another 11. In contrast, the Congress, which had led in just 14 segments in May, now has 42 seats and the NCP, which had led in 26, has won in 41. Between them the two parties that were partners till recently have gained 43 seats. Interestingly, this churn has happened with very little change in the state-wide vote shares of each party. As the accompanying graph shows, the variation in the vote shares of the Congress and BJP in the two elections is less than one percentage point, the NCP's vote share is up by 1.2 percentage points and the Sena's is down by a similar amount. So what explains the difference? The state-wide vote share figures conceal significant shifts in regions. In Vidarbha, for instance, the Sena had 19% of the votes and 22 leads in the Lok Sabha polls, thanks largely to being part of the BJP alliance. With the alliance gone, it is now down to 12.3% of the votes and just 4 seats in the region. In every other region too it has seen a drop in seats, ironically even where its vote share is slightly up from the May levels, presumably because the same vote share is now spread thinner across many seats rather than being concentrated in the relatively few it contested in the parliamentary elections. The Congress has made most of its gains in Vidarbha and Northern Maharashtra (up from 2 to 10 in both cases), and in Western Maharashtra where it won 7 seats this time after drawing a blank in May. For the BJP, Vidarbha was the region that really delivered extra seats in these assembly polls, its tally rising from an already impressive 36 out of 62 in May to 44 now. In the other regions, it has either dropped a few seats or at best gained one or two. What is really good news from the party's point of view is that even in the region where it is now weakest--Konkan--it has 15.5% of the votes, a figure higher than the 14% share it had state-wide in 2009. III. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/specials/assembly-elections-2014/maharashtra-news/NCP-Sena-seat-demands-too-high-TOI-analysis/articleshow/44893481.cms NCP, Sena seat demands too high: TOI analysis Shankar Raghuraman <http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toireporter/author-Shankar-Raghuraman.cms>, TNN | Oct 21, 2014, 03.35AM IST The two erstwhile alliances in Maharashtra -- BJP-Shiv Sena and Congress-NCP -- fell apart on the eve of elections with both partners in each of them accusing the other of being unreasonable in seat sharing. Given the fact that all four fought separately, the results give us a reality check on whose claims were more valid and what would have been a 'fair' arrangement reflecting actual strength on the ground in each case. TOI looked at each seat to see which of the NDA partners - BJP, Sena, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSPS) and Swabhimani Paksha (SWP) - got more votes than the others. A similar exercise was done for the UPA allies - Congress, NCP and Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi (BVA). What this analysis showed was that the BJP was the leading NDA partner in 173 of the 288 assembly seats, the Sena in 107, RSPS and SWP in three each. In two seats, Vasai and Islampur, none of them contested. On the UPA side, the Congress got more votes than NCP or BVA in 158 seats, the NCP was the leading UPA force in 127 and the BVA in the remaining three. What the results suggest, therefore, is that the Sena was being completely unreasonable in asking the BJP to settle for just 119 seats and the NCP was being just as unrealistic in demanding 144 seats. Ironically, the two regional parties seem to have read the situation more wrongly than the national ones. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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