I/II.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/11/syria-agreement-international-aleppo-homs-de-mistura.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=b5b7b970e5-November_11_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-b5b7b970e5-100372581#ixzz3ImYtuhpF
Staffan de Mistura's Aleppo plan
As part of their response to [new UN peace envoy to Syria] Staffan de
Mistura’s proposal to "freeze" the conflict in Aleppo, Syrian officials
yesterday called on the United Nations envoy for Syria to assess the
government’s track record in implementing successful settlements and
reconciliations in Syrian areas, particularly Homs.
Summary⎙ Print
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/11/syria-agreement-international-aleppo-homs-de-mistura.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=b5b7b970e5-November_11_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-b5b7b970e5-100372581#>
UN envoy Staffan de Mistura has laid out a plan for a freeze to the
conflict in Aleppo and is now meeting with both sides to negotiate a
deal. This could be the basis for further negotiations; however, bloody
developments in other areas show the distance that still must be traveled.
Author Ziad HaydarPosted November 10, 2014
Translator(s)Kamal Fayad
Original Articleاقرا المقال الأصلي باللغة العربية
<http://assafir.com/Article/1/383163>
Damascus believes that ambiguity surrounds the term "freeze the
conflict" in Aleppo and that the implementation is therefore impossible
in practical terms. In addition, it forces both sides to effectively
acknowledge the legitimacy of the other party and possibly jointly
combat their common enemy, the Islamic State [IS] ... . This group, the
UN envoy has previously warned, might be preparing to target the city in
the near future.
In a serious development, five engineers specializing in nuclear
research at the center of Scientific Research in Barzeh, north of
Damascus, were killed when the bus they were traveling in was targeted
by a hail of gunfire.
There were alsodevelopments in Daraa province
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/10/syrian-rebels-south-damascus-regime-battles.html>
(south of Damascus) where armed Islamic factions, headed by
Jabhat al-Nusra, succeeded in taking full control of the city of Nawa
after blocking the road leading there from Al-Shaykh Maskin (north
Daraa). Syrian state television reported this, saying, “Armed forces
have been redeployed and repositioned in the Daraa countryside of Nawa
in preparation for future combat operations there.”
De Mistura is expected to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
before departing Damascus for Homs, in his first on-the-ground visit to
Syria since assuming his post in July (2014).
Foreign Minister Walid Moallem met with de Mistura and the accompanying
delegation for nearly two hours. Afterward, Syria’s official news
agency, SANA, reported that the two sides discussed the results of de
Mistura’s visits to various capitals and the proposals made before the
[UN] Security Council in relation to the Syrian crisis. [This] included
de Mistura’s initiative to freeze the conflict in Aleppo and the need to
implement relevant Security Council anti-terrorism resolutions —
particularly Resolution 2170, which provides for combating IS, Jabhat
al-Nusra and other branches of al-Qaeda. [This is in parallel to]
Resolution 2178. which emphasizes the need for all countries to prevent
foreign terrorists from entering Syria and Iraq.
In addition, SANA noted “both parties’ satisfaction at the results of
these constructive talks.” The meeting was attended by the director of
the United Nations Information Center in Cairo, Khawla Mattar, whom
knowledgeable sources have told As-Safir has been nominated to succeed
Martin Grifith as head of the UN mission to Damascus.
According to information gathered by As-Safir, de Mistura seemed eager
to meet with officials and dignitaries from Homs who took part in
reconciliation efforts between the Syrian army and opposition factions.
Homs is now the reference point, with many observers likening the
current focus on Aleppo to that preceding the fall of the Baba Amr
neighborhood in Homs following the siege of the al-Hamidiyeh
neighborhood, which resulted in the end of the armed militant presence
in Homs, except in the al-Waar neighborhood, which also might be the
object of further reconciliation efforts under UN auspices.
Syrian officials called on de Mistura and his team to review this
experiment and its effect on the city and countryside. In this regard,
Damascus wishes the UN envoy to reassess the information he likely
gathered earlier as a result of his involvement in many other conflicts,
leading to the conclusion that the international community’s many
impressions concerning Syria lacked accuracy in portraying the reality
on the ground. Among those misconceptions is the fact that life in the
capital, radiating outward in various directions, has been unaffected by
the daily tides of war.
Getting to know Homs up close and personal will facilitate preparations
for the "Aleppo Plan," for the city might be visited at some point as
well, if the UN envoy’s efforts find their way to fruition.
The relevant authorities will relay their experiences relating to the
conflict in the country to de Mistura, as well as their perception of
the necessities required to make reconciliation a success. Necessities
that an official previously informed As-Safir of. They revolve around
“agreed-upon measures to build trust, implement a mutual cease-fire and
exchange hostages and prisoners and culminating in the surrender of
heavy weaponry, as was the case in some other areas, or the surrender of
all weapons, as occurred in other places. In parallel, political amnesty
type agreements would be signed with combatants wishing to lay down
their arms, while allowing those who do not wish to do so an opportunity
to leave the battlefield and relocate elsewhere.” Yet, as the
aforementioned official explained, such settlements are hindered
by “external factors, as well as financial corruption and greed caused
by war.” However, they are facilitated by “the army’s advance on the
ground and the inevitability of the militants' defeat.” The latter being
a point that the UN envoy prefers not to dwell upon, preferring instead
to talk about “an agreement that does not imply that one party
vanquished the other and which spares civilians humanitarian suffering,”
similar to that which occurred in other areas, such as Old Homs.
As a result, Damascus is presenting Homs as an example of what can be
accomplished in Aleppo, itself a subject of concern to the authorities,
as a result of the interest expressed in its regard by countries such as
France and Turkey. [This is] particularly in light of the advances on
the battlefield surrounding the city, which is now militarily encircled,
which two days ago led [Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal] al-Miqdad
to announce that, “Aleppo would soon be rid
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/10/syria-regime-forces-murak-new-victories.html>
of its terrorist desecration.”
De Mistura seems to agree with Turkey and France that Aleppo is a
priority, even if his public rhetoric is different than theirs. For he
believes that reaching an agreement “akin to a cease fire” between
opposition forces and the Syrian army would strengthen the city against
an IS onslaught, which the UN official considers to be a serious threat
to the city.
For their part, Ankara and Paris want to place Aleppo under
international jurisdiction, which would make the Syrian army a
legitimate target for coalition strikes. On the other hand, Damascus
gives its economic capital the same importance as its political one.
While the prevailing opinion now is that Aleppo’s impending fate would
constitute the most important symbolic shift in this conflict, with the
regime trying to regain control of the city — a goal that Turkey is well
aware of. For Ankara, as is widely known, has wagered on Aleppo since
the onset of the war — for historical, economic, and ethnic reasons.
Turkish officials were shocked when the majority Sunni populace there
stood with the Syrian regime until opposition forces, most of whom were
from the Idlib and Aleppo countryside, succeeded in taking control of
approximately half the city in the summer of 2012.
In a development that threatens to ignite the region, columns of
fighters from the Jamal Maarouf-led Syrian Revolutionaries Front entered
neighborhoods of Aleppo
<http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/11/cooperation-prevents-syria-opposition-infighting-aleppo.html>
following their ousting from Idlib’s countryside by Jabhat al-Nusra.
These fighters took up positions in areas controlled by the Islamic
Front, in what portends to be the transfer of the battles of the Idlib
countryside to Aleppo’s interior.
In this regard, a battlefield source told As-Safir, “The forces of Jamal
Maarouf, which took up positions in the Al-Maysar and Karm Houmad
neighborhoods, have begun lobbing mortar rounds at Jabhat al-Nusra
emplacements in al-Marjah and Bab al-Nairab.
Furthermore, in the last two days, Aleppo has been the scene of three
different assassination operations perpetrated by unknown assailants
against Islamic Front, Jabhat al-Nusra and Combined Combat Brigade
commanders.
II.
www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/16c/us-islamic-state-syria-alllies_n_5999254.html
U.S. Still Searching For Credible Allies In Syria
AP | By KEN DILANIAN and ZEINA KARAM
Posted: 10/16/2014 4:27 pm EDT Updated: 10/16/2014 4:59 pm EDT
JOHN KIRBY
WASHINGTON (AP) — Despite years of diplomacy and a CIA operation to
vet and train moderate rebels, the U.S. finds itself without a
credible partner on the ground in Syria as it bombs the Islamic State
group. That's a potentially serious flaw in its strategy to ultimately
defeat the militants.
Obama administration officials have long conceded that airstrikes
alone won't drive IS from its strongholds across Syria and Iraq, but
it also has ruled out the use of American ground troops. The U.S.
strategy to crush IS rests on the use of local proxy forces, and
hinges on plans to use $500 million and a base in Saudi Arabia to
build an army of moderate Syrian rebels.
The ground force component has always been seen as a challenge in
Syria, but the difficulty has become clearer in recent days. Officials
acknowledge that the U.S. doesn't trust any Syrian rebel groups enough
to coordinate on the air campaign, despite attempts by some
pro-Western fighters to pass along intelligence about IS positions.
The CIA has secretly trained and is paying more than 1,000 moderates
to help achieve the administration's stated objective of overthrowing
Syrian president Bashar Assad, U.S. officials have said.
Those fighters have been gaining ground against Assad in southern
Syria and in some places are fighting IS, said Robert Ford, a former
U.S. ambassador to Syria. The CIA-funded fighters have proven reliable
and have made modest gains, said a congressional aide who has been
briefed on the matter. The aide spoke only on condition of anonymity
to discuss sensitive intelligence.
But some analysts have questioned the fighters' loyalty and
competence. Either way, it's clear their impact has not been decisive.
"Most of these groups have worked closely with Jabat al Nusra at some
point in the last year or so," said Joshua Landis, the Arabic-speaking
director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of
Oklahoma, referring to the head of Syria's al-Qaida spinoff. "Some of
them have worked hand in glove with ISIS. For Americans to call a
sit-down and say 'Here's where we're bombing' doesn't make any sense.
We don't trust these guys."
American officials don't go that far in public remarks, but they have
been fairly blunt.
"We don't have a willing, capable, effective partner on the ground
inside Syria right now," Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman,
said last week. "It's just a fact."
John Allen, the retired Marine general in charge of coordinating the
U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State group, told reporters
Wednesday that "at this point, there is not formal coordination with"
the U.S.-backed moderate rebels known as the Free Syrian Army.
That approach has infuriated rebels, fueling mistrust on both sides.
The commander of a moderate rebel brigade in the northern Aleppo
province, who goes by the nom de guerre Abu Thabet, called the
U.S.-led airstrikes "pointless and self-serving."
As Americans have bombed IS positions elsewhere, Syrian government
forces have advanced in northern Aleppo province, Abu Thabet said.
Moderate factions like his are trapped between IS fighters on one side
and government forces on another, and the U.S. has not once hit IS
along the 12-mile front it occupies against his group, he said.
Abu Thabet said rebels have tried to pass along information about IS
positions to the U.S. military, but have received no response.
"The Americans are kidding themselves," he said. He then praised the
Nusra Front —underscoring the sort of concerns that bedevil U.S.
policymakers.
"I am surprised at how fractious and disunified the Syrian opposition
has been," said Michael O'Hanlon, a military strategy expert at the
Brookings Institution. "They just haven't managed to find a
charismatic leader or a single rallying point."
Part of the explanation, he and others said, rests with the decision
by the Obama administration not to fund and equip the moderates three
years ago, before Nusra and IS grew in strength.
Allen said the U.S.-led coalition intends "to build a coherence to the
Free Syrian Army elements that will give it the capacity and the
credibility over time to be able to make its weight felt in the
battlefield against ISIL. It's going to require a build phase. It's
going to require a training and equipping phase."
But critics question whether $500 million and several thousand
fighters will be enough.
"I do not understand how 5,000 to 10,000 men are going to hold the
eastern half of Syria," said Ford, the former ambassador. "It looks
woefully inadequate to me."
O'Hanlon, the analyst, added that the numbers suggest the Obama
strategy is "not that serious."
Rep. Mike Pompeo, a Kansas Republican and former Army officer who
serves on the House intelligence committee, said he heard during a
just-concluded trip to Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey a
widespread "fear that the Americans' stated objectives aren't
consistent with our actions to date."
Pompeo, Ford, O'Hanlon and many other observers believe that the Obama
administration ultimately will have to take tougher action against the
Assad government, perhaps including a no-fly zone, to induce Syrian
Sunni Arabs to fight IS. Carl Levin, the Michigan democrat who chairs
the Senate Armed Services Committee, called on Thursday for a no-fly
zone and a buffer zone to protect civilians. The Syrian foreign
ministry said Thursday it was "ferociously opposed" to any such
measures.
"We need a no-fly zone," Pompeo said, "because each time (the
moderates) begin to make some progress, they get barrel bombed."
___
Karam reported from Beirut. AP's Bassem Mroue contributed from Beirut.
Follow Ken Dilanian on Twitter at https://twitter.com/KenDilanianAP
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