http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/syria-isis-have-been-ignoring-each-other-battlefield-data-suggests-n264551

Syria, ISIS Have Been 'Ignoring' Each Other on Battlefield, Data Suggests

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BY CASSANDRA VINOGRAD AND AMMAR CHEIKH OMAR

Syria's military and ISIS may be sworn enemies but instead of wiping each
other off the battlefield they have been delicately dancing around each
other, according to new data exclusively obtained by NBC News.

Both sides in the bloody conflict appear to be eliminating smaller rivals
ahead of a possible final showdown.

Around 64 percent of verifiable ISIS attacks in Syria this year targeted
other non-state groups, an analysis of the IHS Jane's Terrorism and
Insurgency Center's
<https://www.ihs.com/products/janes-terrorism-insurgency-intelligence-centre.html>
(JTIC)
database showed. Just 13 percent of the militants' attacks during the same
period -- the year through Nov. 21 -- targeted Syrian security forces. That's
a stark contrast to the Sunni extremist group's operations in Iraq, where
more than half of ISIS attacks (54 percent) were aimed at security forces.

U.S. Airstrikes on ISIS Are Not EnoughNIGHTLY NEWS

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"In Iraq, it's a very clear insurgency: them against the Iraqi state," said
Matthew Henman, head of JTIC. "In Syria, it's a different situation because
you have such a proliferation of competing, non-state armed groups in the
country in addition to Assad."

Syrian President Bashar Assad has been accused of encouraging the rise of
Islamist extremist groups, like ISIS, in order to discredit opposition to
his rule. He lashed out at the suggestion in a recent interview with Paris
Match
<http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/International/Our-Interview-with-Syrian-President-Bashar-al-Assad-661984>,
describing ISIS as an enemy and saying that the "army is winning" its fight
against terrorists.

"They both recognize there's a mutual benefit in crushing other groups"

However, JTIC's data shows that his counterterrorism operations -- more than
two-thirds of which were airstrikes -- skew heavily towards groups whose
names aren't ISIS. Of 982 counterterrorism operations for the year up
through Nov. 21, just 6 percent directly targeted ISIS.

Henman said the figures suggest ISIS and Assad's security forces have
embraced the "clever strategy" of mostly "ignoring each other."

For now, ISIS appears focused on emerging as the dominant Islamist,
non-state actors and operating in areas where Assad's troops have largely
withdrawn. Assad is focused on destroying opposition to his rule from the
same groups ISIS wants to dominate -- and engaging more in recent months
with ISIS as that comes to pass.

"They both recognize there's a mutual benefit in crushing other groups,"
Henman said. That's because eventually ISIS is going to have to take on
Assad's government -- and both sides want the battlefield to be clear of
other potential competitors.

"It's a confrontation that's coming -- and both sides know it," he added.

Just ask Abu Hafs, a local ISIS leader from Aleppo who is intent on
expanding the militants' Islamic state --or caliphate.

What is a Caliphate?NBCNEWS.COM

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"We are not ignoring the Syrian regime but we are focusing on the rebel
areas," he explained to NBC News. "You can't jump to step two. You have to
do the first step first. To fight successfully against Bashar Assad's
regime, we must first take over the rebel areas."

That doesn't mean his fighters haven't directly fought the regime. Abu Hafs
said they had "achieved great victories," such as taking over the Tabqah
military airport.

"We are fighting for the expansion of the Islamic caliphate area to include
all the liberated areas and also the regime areas," he added.

For the year until November 21, ISIS carried out at least 923 verifiable
attacks in Syria -- an average of 2.84 per day. During that time period,
ISIS attacks resulted in the deaths of 4,990 militants -- including its own
fighters.

Analysis of the JTIC database on a regional level showed that there were
238 counterterrorism operations in Aleppo for the year through Nov. 21 --
but just 14 of those targeted ISIS. In the militants' stronghold of Raqqa,
there were 22 counterterrorism operations but just half targeted ISIS.

Some rebels suspect coordination between the Syrian regime and ISIS. Yusuf
Abu Abdullah, one of the leaders of the Al-Mujaheddin Army in Aleppo, said
when his fighters have attacked regime bases, they have come under separate
attacks from ISIS. That's forced them to withdraw and battle the other
militants instead of Assad's forces.

"Most of the front lines between ISIS and the regime are very quiet -- you
wouldn't even hear the sound of firing," he said. "The exact opposite is on
our frontlines, which are very dangerous and where the fights don't stop
for 24 hours."

If ISIS was interested in fighting the regime, he said, they would have
gone to Aleppo -- a city besieged by Assad's forces. Instead, they chose to
fight for Kobani where there is no Syrian army presence.

"Kobani revealed ISIS and showed to the world that this terrorist
organization doesn't seek to fight the regime, but is trying to kill the
rebels and end the Syrian revolution, Abu Abdullah said.

Signs are emerging that the final showdown may soon be approaching. In the
past several weeks, Assad's forces have been stepping up their attacks
against ISIS. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said it
had documented more than 2,000 regime airstrikes around Syria in the past
50 days. It said Wednesday that nine airstrikes hit an ISIS regional office
in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor.

Inside Kobani: Behind Kurdish Lines as Fighters Confront ISISNBC NEWS

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The information provided from the IHS Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency
Center Database was mined from open sources and double-sourced wherever
possible to ensure the greatest level of accuracy. It does not include
information from social media that cannot be verified through conventional
and trusted news sources.

[image: Image: Data on Syrian regime operations against ISIS and ISIS
attacks against Syrian government forces.]IHS JTIC / NBC NEWS
Data on Syrian regime operations against ISIS and ISIS attacks against
Syrian government forces.
CASSANDRA VINOGRAD

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Cassandra Vinograd is a Senior Writer and News Editor. Before joining NBC
News, she worked as a London-based correspondent for The Associated Press
and specialized in politics, foreign affairs and defense.

Vinograd previously worked as an editor for The Wall Street Journal in
Brussels and London.

She has reported extensively from Afghanistan and on West Africa and the
Middle East.

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Peace Is Doable

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