[What the report below at sl. I deliberately omits out is the crucial fact that there was a Lok Sabha poll held in between the two assembly polls compared therein.
A report, citing the relevant numbers, carried by the same ToI itself on the day this poll was held (and posted here the same day) is reproduced at sl. II below. What comes out, reading these two reports together, is as under. The performance of the three leading parties in 2013, 2014 (LS poll) and 2015, in terms of vote share followed by number of seats, is as follows. BJP - 33.07% 46.4% 32.1% AAP - 29.49% 32.9% 54.3% INC - 24.55% 15.1% 09.8% BJP - 31 60 03 AAP - 28 10 67 INC - 08 00 00 ***It clearly shows up how the BJP's electoral support in Delhi has nosedived - a drop of 14.3% points, between last April and now. The congress support has, over the same period, dipped 5.3% points. The AAP support has gone up by 21.4% points - rather mind-boggling.***] I/II. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/delhi-elections-2015/top-stories/Delhi-elections-2015-Huge-loss-in-seats-but-BJPs-vote-share-almost-intact/articleshow/46186474.cms Delhi elections 2015: Huge loss in seats, but BJP's vote share almost intact TNN | Feb 10, 2015, 02.49 PM IST NEW DELHI: The BJP on Tuesday may have been decimated in terms of seats in the Delhi state elections but its vote share has remained almost intact. On the other hand, the Congress has been completely obliterated seat-wise and shrunk considerably by vote share. 33.07% In 2013 Delhi elections, the BJP had won 31 out of 68 contested seats. It's vote share was 33.07% with 26,04100 votes. The 2015 elections in Delhi has left the BJP vote share almost as it is. According to the latest Election Commission data, the BJP's vote share has reduced by about just one percent, bringing it down to 32.1% (2779810 votes). The Congress had won 8 out of 70 contested seats and received a vote share of 24.55% (1932933 votes) in 2013 Delhi elections. But in 2015, its political existence and scenario has completely changed. The Congress has got only 9.8% vote share with over 8.4 lakh votes. That is almost a loss of 15% vote share. BSP which had 5.35% vote share in the last elections is now at 1.3%, demonstrating that like all other small parties in Delhi, its vote share has gone to the AAP. The AAP is thus the beneficiary of the vote share that traditionally belonged to the Congress and got divided among other smaller parties and independents. In the 2013 elections, the AAP won 28 seats out of 70 and got 29.49% vote share with 2322330 votes. In 2015 elections, the AAP swept the elections with 67 seats and secured 54.3% vote share with 47,26705 votes till the last reports came. That is about 25% II. http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31804&articlexml=Number-games-Who-will-come-out-swinging-07022015013044 Feb 07 2015 : The Times of India (Mumbai) Number games: Who will come out swinging TIMES INSIGHT GROUP As Delhi heads for polls for the third time in a little over a year, can the numbers from the previous two elections provide clues to which way things will go? Or can the BJP performance in state elections since the LS polls of last April-May provide some pointers? Problem is: Different numbers point in different directions. It boils down to which of them you choose to look at. Consider the comparison between the December 2013 assembly elections and the LS polls of 2014. In 2013, BJP won 31 seats by itself and 32 with Akali Dal. Its vote share was 33.1%. Five months on, BJP led in 60 of 70 assembly segments and its vote share was up to 46.4%. AAP won 28 seats in December and led in 10 segments despite its vote rising from 29.5% to 32.9%. Congress had eight seats and 24.6% of votes in 2013. It didn't lead in a single seat in the parliamentary elections, its vote share crashed to 15.1%. ***It would appear that BJP's lead over AAP is too substantial for Kejriwal and company to bridge -a 13.5 percentage point difference in vote share*** [emphasis added].Even if BJP were to drop a little from those heights, it should cross the half-way mark of 36? You could, however, question that. First, a 13.5 percentage-point gap is effectively only half as much, if votes moving from one side are going to the other. If seven percentage points worth of votes were to desert BJP and go to AAP , the latter would have a half-point lead, all else remaining same. Importantly , all else is unlikely to remain the same. In the LS polls, Congress was one of the two major contenders, AAP an also ran. The roles are now reversed. It's not unlikely that a sizeable chunk of Congress voters would switch to AAP , which means while the gap remains huge, it may not be insurmountable. The other number AAP might like to dwell on is that in assembly polls after May 2014, BJP's vote share has been lower than in parliamentary polls.In Jharkhand, it was lower by 8.8 percentage points, in J&K by 9.4 percentage points (see graph). In Haryana, the de cline was much smaller and in Maharashtra the party's vote share went up marginally . But in both these states, BJP was contesting almost all seats in the assembly polls. It contested fewer in April-May because of alliances. So, will Delhi see a repeat of the JharkhandJ&K pattern? AAP would certainly hope so. One number that BJP will find heartening is the number of Delhi seats where the party that won in 2013 led in 2014. For BJP , there were 31 such seats, including the lone Akali seat in the assembly . AAP had four such seats and Congress none.Does that mean BJP has that many safe seats, while others have hardly any? We'll know on February 10. Click To Enlarge -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
